Phillies Two Deadline Deals Leave Questions About Deals Not Made

The Phillies were a flawed team entering yesterday’s trade deadline and there wasn’t really a way out of it for the Phillies front office. The main problem that has plagued the team all season has been the lack of performance from their well paid players, particularly hitters. The Phillies weren’t going to solve that at the deadline, but it was exceedingly obvious that there was a hole in left field (thanks to Harper’s move to first moving Schwarber to DH), a need for a right handed batter (a need that could be filled with the first need), and that the pitching staff felt an arm short, probably in the bullpen. The Phillies made a pair of trades that sort of half answered that whole set of questions.

Michael Lorenzen for Hao-Yu Lee is very much a deadline rental trade. Lee has lost some shine as you can no longer just sit on him being better at various things than his age cohort. He has a real knack for hitting, and while he lacks high end exit velocities, he hits everything solidly. He can play second or third base, but the bat profiles better at second. It still does not profile perfectly unless he really hits. He is physically mature and a known quantity having been a prominent member of international teams back to his youth. There is a chance that Lee is an everyday regular, but he probably has less ceiling that similarly ranked Phillies prospects (he was 9th on the midseason list), and given Bryson Stott’s season and Trea Turner’s contract his position is firmly blocked.

Lorenzen is not the sort of arm that most expected. The Phillies rotation has been solid, but they lacked depth. The bullpen has been overworked not because of the starting pitchers, but because injuries and offensive ineptitude have made for a lot of close games with the same relievers involved. Lorenzen helps the depth problem, allowing the Phillies to go to a 6 man rotation for 2 weeks that should keep the rest of the rotation fresher, and then he or someone else can move into a bulk relief role or fill whatever issue may come up. Lorenzen does not project as a member of the postseason rotation, but given his history relieving he should move easily into a bullpen role in the postseason. Given other deals made at the deadline, the Phillies paid about what the market said they should and they did it with a prospect that fits the type of player they are looking to move.

The other deal the Phillies made looks to have come out of a pivot from deals not made. Bailey Falter had clearly fallen out of favor and there was no logical way the Phillies were going to put him back in the rotation. It looks like the Phillies may have been shopping him as a piece in deals for outfielders that didn’t happen, and then at the last minute pivoted to infielder Rodolfo Castro. On the surface Castro is a 1 to 1 replacement for Josh Harrison. Castro has played second, short, and third. He is young (turned 24 in May) and has some mixed major league success. The main thing about Castro is that he has destroyed left handed pitchers. He is mired in a slump right now between the majors and a demotion to AAA, but he has been one of the best hitters vs LHPs in the majors for the last two years and has a .277/.341/.559 line vs them in 223 major league plate appearances. He is a switch hitter and is near unplayable vs right handed pitchers. There is probably a conversation about whether he should be switch hitting, but that is a different time problem. As long as he is not eating into Bryson Stott’s playing time and more being deployed as a pinch hitter and third baseman vs LHPs (with Bohm sliding to first and Harper getting a day off at DH), then he should be a positive. He isn’t a big addition for now, but without a big bat coming in he gives them an actual option vs a lefty late and can do things like pinch hit for Cave and then have Rojas or Pache enter the game. It is possible the Phillies do give him outfield reps for flexibility, but he has never played there before.

This of course gets to the problem that most have with the Phillies deadline, no left field bat and no bullpen help. The bullpen side of things probably is the easier side to tackle. The Phillies bullpen is full and will need to cut someone to make room for Lorenzen and will need to cut another for Jose Alvarado if he is back before September. They also have Connor Brogdon and Andrew Bellatti in AAA. Essentially this means that you are bumping Yunior Marte with any addition, and Yunior Marte has been a pretty good reliever for the Phillies. That means you are looking at 8th/9th inning right handed arms, and given who was selling that market never seemed to be there outside of David Robertson who went to the Marlins for a pretty good primary piece. As for the outfield, that market also seemed to not fully develop. The Phillies had interest in Adam Duvall, but either the Red Sox decided to not sell anything or the Phillies offer wasn’t good enough to make them pivot into selling him. It sounds like they didn’t love Teoscar Hernandez, and the price may not have been worth the upgrade he provided. The prices on Tommy Pham and Mark Canha were reasonable, but not cheap and maybe there wasn’t a fit there either. Randall Grichuk went in a package deal with CJ Cron, and while Grichuk may have been a good fit, Cron wasn’t really. It does seem that the Phillies lacked the high minors mid to back rotation arms to grease the wheels on such a deal, but we don’t know the ask. The Phillies also once again seemed to shy away from deals that touched the lowest levels of the system.

In addition to the lack of sellers, the Phillies really were hampered by their farm system. It sounds like they asked around on big additions, but their top prospects were not viewed as the caliber to make those type of deals. That, coupled with the Andrew Painter injury, seems to have put them in a place where they just were not going to touch the Abel, Crawford, McGarry, Rojas group of prospects in a trade. They do seem to be the highest on Johan Rojas, and that view will be challenged as they rely on him to cover the lack of trades made. If the Phillies weren’t going to touch their top group and don’t seem to have engaged in trades with low minors components, then there just wasn’t a lot they could do.

The two moves made are definitely upgrades, and neither was an overpay. They didn’t make any move that compromised the farm system in anyway and depending on if they can get 4th option years on Simon Muzziotti and Rafael Marchan they are not left with a player burning a hole in their pocket or projects to lose value between now and offseason trades. In reality, their top players need to hit and it really is that simple.