Yesterday was the deadline for teams to add players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft (and to the AAA roster for the minor league portion, but we don’t actually get that roster). The deadline helps spur movement as teams make decisions about the volatility of their 40 man roster. The Phillies roster entered the day at 38 and left the day at 38. What they did and did not do sets the tone about how they are handling the offseason and how they view their own roster.
Before getting into yesterday, it is important to loop back to last week because the Phillies did make a sort of Rule 5 related move when they sent out RHP Adam Leverett for RHP Michael Mercado. Leverett is an org bulk reliever with some interesting traits (namely a good changeup) and Mercado is a former high round pick who has emerged from injury ridden years to be a high octane reliever. Mercado was slated to be a minor league free agent, so the Rays got something for deciding they didn’t want to protect him and the Phillies immediately added Mercado to the 40 man roster. Mercado right now is one of 7 relievers on the 40 man roster who do not currently project to be in the majors and have options. This has been a priority for the Phillies and likely does influence some of the later moves. They also added LHP Josh Fleming via waiver claim, he is out of options and I will get to him later.
Putting yesterday’s actions in reverse order, the Phillies did not add anyone to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The highest ranked prospect left exposed is outfielder/first baseman Carlos De La Cruz who was exposed and went unpicked last year. De La Cruz is an interesting prospect because of his size, athleticism, and raw power. He is also 24 years old and was just ok in AA for Reading. He walked a lot more and struck out less, but we are still talking about a player who struck out at a 27.5% rate in AA, largely due to some high swing and miss numbers. It doesn’t mean that De La Cruz is less of a prospect for not being protected (though the Phillies system is not good), it is just that he has really low odds of helping a team in 2024 and that means he has low odds of sticking in the majors. A team could always really believe in him, but it is a gamble the Phillies were willing to take.
Other notable or interesting prospects left exposed:
- LHP Samuel Aldegheri – Probably more of #4 starter, Aldegheri throws in the low to mid 90s with a changeup, slider, and curveball to compliment his fastball. He got a taste of high A last year, so he is nowhere near ready as a starter and lacks the raw stuff to fast track as a reliever.
- RHP Jean Cabrera – Same sort of type of prospect as Aldegheri as more of a back end starter with maybe a chance for a bit more. Cabrera has more velocity, and his 4-seamer can miss bats, but his slider and changeup aren’t secondaries that project to jump in a bullpen role. He spent the full year in low-A.
- IF/OF Matt Kroon – Kroon can play a lot of positions and can hit the ball solidly with limited swing and miss. He is somewhere on the Matt Vierling-Dalton Guthrie spectrum and a team that likes him could jump at him. He also will be 27 on opening day and is fairly redundant with Weston Wilson.
- RHP Dominic Pipkin – Pipkin moved to the bullpen full time in the middle of the season and his stuff jumped. He sits in the high 90s, up to 100 with his fastball, and his secondary pitches stepped forward as well. He also has a limited track record of performance, a history of injuries, and falls into a type of player teams tend to have a decent number of.
There are some more reliever types that were left exposed, but none really currently project as more than a mid end middle reliever. Missing from that list of names is the breakout of the Arizona Fall League, Oliver Dunn. Dunn had a breakout year after the Phillies took him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. After missing much of the last few seasons to injury, Dunn saw a jump in power numbers, and that is the underlying ones, not the playing in Reading ones. He absolutely crushed right handed pitching. He has positional versatility via his ability to stand at second, third, and potentially left field, but he isn’t particularly good at any of them, with second base being his best position. He is essentially a near major league ready platoon bat and bench player. The Phillies traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers for infielder Robert Moore and outfielder Hendry Mendez instead of adding him to their 40 man roster, the Brewers did immediately add him to their roster.
There are two parts of this transaction, there is the decision to not just keep Dunn and add him to the roster, and the actual trade return. As for not adding him, Dunn is 26 and does not really have a path to the majors given the Phillies do not run many platoons and rarely use the bench. He is sort of redundant with Kody Clemens who is a year older, but also wrecked AAA when he was there. I personally would prefer Dunn to Clemens, but carrying both was definitely a waste of resources. As for Rodolfo Castro, Castro can actually play shortstop and is the opposite platoon to Dunn so they are more complimentary than at odds. But, that does get to the 40 man roster as a whole, which stands at 38 with a glaring spot in the rotation to fill. The Phillies also are likely to add a bat or two and probably a reliever. That said the 40 man roster now contains Darick Hall (rumored to be looking at or be looked at by overseas teams), Clemens, Simon Muzziotti, Rodolfo Castro, Weston Wilson, Jake Cave, Edmundo Sosa, and Cristian Pache who all have some level of redundancies and probably can and will be reduced in number by 2-3. On the pitching side, there is needed depth, but there is also the out of options Fleming, the still on the roster Dylan Covey, but also in that optionable group of relievers they are carrying Nick Nelson, Connor Brogdon, Luis Ortiz, Michael Mercado, McKinley Moore, Andrew Bellatti, AND Yunior Marte. Outside of Fleming, that is a lot of right handed relief, and they probably don’t need to be carrying all of it. That is all to say that making room for Dunn wasn’t the difficult part, they just didn’t value him like that.
As for the trade, it comes with being judged through the lens of the Phillies failure to develop hitters. Hendry Mendez got a decent chunk of money to sign at 17 in 2021. He has a feel for contact, it is just a bunch of contact directly into the ground because the swing is sort of disjointed and the path is not geared to put the ball in the air. He is a corner outfielder, so the expectations on his bat are going to be high. It is all sort of the problem the Phillies have struggled with and will rear it’s head when we get to list season and Justin Crawford. There is certainly talent, but it isn’t the kind the Phillies tend to unlock. Robert Moore is the son of Dayton Moore and has been known for some time because of that. He was young for the class in 2022 and the Brewers took him in the second round after a down junior year at Arkansas. He can play up the middle defense, but there is a real lack of impact in the bat that holds him back from having any real ceiling at the plate. There is some utility upside, but he is trending hard in the wrong direction. The Phillies definitely bought low on Mendez and Moore, I just think there is a real chance they bought low and the value will continue to go lower. The real decision point that will drive whether this was a good move or not will be whether the decision not to protect Dunn was the correct one.