The Rule 5 draft is the last major event of the Winter Meetings. The Phillies made their lone protection (Johan Rojas) a couple of weeks ago and without the Trea Turner signing official have a 40 man roster at 38 names leaving two spots available.
Since the draft last happened, circumstances have changed around it. The notable roster rule changes are:
- 26 man rosters, but capped at 13 pitchers
- Limit on number of times a player can be optioned
- September roster expansion is 28, not full 40 man
- Universal DH
The roster expansion would at first blush indicate that more players could be carried, but the roster construction limits put a damper on that given teams had been often running 13 pitchers for much of the season already. Additionally, the limit on number of times a player can be optioned makes bullpens and pitching staffs much more stable, making it difficult to carry a player who is not an actual contributor. On the hitting side, the universal DH means position-less hitting prospects now have a home which should help a certain population, but it also means 4 man benches, put an extra level of necessity on the usefulness of the players present. All told I think there is marginally more opportunity for players who can contribute now and less opportunity to stash a project.
Intriguing to Other Teams
Erik Miller, LHP
Why He Will Get Selected: Miller is a big left handed pitcher with pedigree (former 4th round pick), plus stuff, and solid results. Left handed pitching is also at a premium with very limited options on the free agent market.
Why He Won’t Get Selected: Miller has a history of should injuries, and while the Phillies moved him to the bullpen in 2022 he never made an appearance with less than 2 days of rests. He also did not have overwhelming results and his control struggled in AAA. He has upside, but he might not have as much availability as other relief options.
McKinley Moore, RHP
Why He Will Get Selected: Moore is a right handed reliever who sits in the upper 90s with a good slider and splitter. He missed bats and showed better control over the second half.
Why He Won’t Get Selected: Moore ended the year with an injury and his results weren’t great, especially when it came to guys putting his stuff in play. He also has only played in AA, so it is fair to be worried about how ready he actually it.
Andrew Schultz, RHP
Why He Will Get Selected: Schultz has come back strong from Tommy John surgery with his fastball sitting 97-99 alongside a sharp slider. For Jersey Shore, he was able to miss bats, especially during a hot stretch in the summer.
Why He Won’t Get Selected: Outside of a portion of the summer, Schultz has never really thrown strikes consistently. He struggled when he reached AA, and while the radar readings are nice Schultz probably will never have the control to be a true late inning arm that would be worth stashing.
Intriguing, but Likely Safe
Why He Will Get Selected: De La Cruz has immense upside with his projectability, raw power, and interesting defensive tools, including the ability to stand in center field. De La Cruz looks to be putting all of his tools together.
Why He Won’t Get Selected: Carlos De La Cruz will not hit major league pitching in 2023, and he might not ever hit major league pitching, and he needs to hit some sort of pitching. A year of missed development and playing a roster spot down probably isn’t worth it for a team given that De La Cruz’s floor is not near a major leaguer.
Cristian Hernandez, RHP
Why He Will Get Selected: After struggling in the rotation early, Hernandez found success in the bullpen down the stretch and in the Arizona Fall League.
Why He Won’t Get Selected: Hernandez is using a back end starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing strikes with a variety of pitches topped with a fastball that is more above average than plus. Hernandez is the type of pitcher teams take off of AA roster if they had success, but he had a 4.70 ERA in A ball and lacks large upside to offset that.