Phillies Offseason: A General Plan

I kicked off this series of musings with some thoughts about money and how it affects the decisions the Phillies can and should make this offseason. Next on the list of thoughts is laying out a general plan or sort of a framework of what they have and what they need to do. A framework is just a framework, it isn’t a limitation, but there are consequences of expanding beyond the framework such as the CBT penalties previously discussed or replacing the player that is being moved away. On some level, this is the minimum the Phillies need to do to have a successful offseason.

It is best to start with the roster, and really the core of the roster, so that is 9 starting hitters, the rotation, and the core of the bullpen. The Phillies are returning most of this group. None of the hitters who started for the team in the postseason are free agents. One of their starting pitchers is a free agent and two of the relievers is a free agent, one of whom did not factor into actual leverage situations in the postseason. It is also important to remember this core went to the World Series in 2022 and missed by one game in 2023, so it isn’t perfect, but it is pretty good. Those free agent departures, coupled with Rhys Hoskins who never got back into a game, make creating a framework relatively straight forward.

1. Re-sign Aaron Nola or Somehow Replace Aaron Nola Without Paying Everything

The Phillies lack starting pitching depth, less so than many teams, but they aren’t in a position where if their #2 starter walks they have a ready set of replacements. Andrew Painter won’t be pitching much in 2024, Griff McGarry is a mess, and Mick Abel is a good pitching prospect, but he might not be a front end arm and he almost certainly won’t be that immediately. The rest of the rotation (Wheeler, Suarez, Walker, Sanchez) are all solid pitchers, but none give the combination of innings and quality that Nola gives. The problem with replacing Nola is the cost of the other options. Most of the top starting pitchers will get Qualifying Offers so signing one of them instead of Nola comes with the additional draft pick and international money penalties. A trade for an equivalent starter is likely to involve Mick Abel, or at minimum Aidan Miller. Even if the Phillies were able to trade for someone like Corbin Burnes and extend him, there is a real question as to whether Corbin Burnes on a big deal is better than Nola+Abel. The one exception is Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has the talent to meet the ceiling and floor of Nola and is only 25. Yamamoto is only 25, so would infuse youth as well. He is likely to get a bigger contract than Nola and his signing timelines will likely be influenced by the posting timelines. The Phillies may decide they don’t want to miss out on getting someone and try and lock up the player they know. It isn’t Nola or bust, but the road is more difficult without re-signing the homegrown arm.

2. Get a Corner Bat so Johan Rojas isn’t in the starting lineup

It isn’t anything against Rojas, or that Brandon Marsh is a great fit in center field. Rojas did not show well in the postseason and the plate and there is a lot to think his regular season numbers are bit sketchy. He is still young with great potential, and him starting in AAA would not change that. He probably still gets a bunch of time in the majors in 2024 because injuries and other things do happen. That gets to the second part of this, which if Rojas is in center and Marsh is in left, you are one injury away not from Rojas playing every day, but from needing to pull something out of a farm system that doesn’t have options.

In the NLCS, the top right handed bats in the Phillies lineup were exploited by Diamondbacks pitching. It is going to be hard or impractical to replace those bats with better bats, but Rojas batting 9th was a glaring black hole that could be exploited. Given the positional inflexibility of Kyle Schwarber and the log jam of Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos it is difficult to find a clean fit without a trade, but a trade then requires finding a clean fit with the new configuration as you replace the hitter traded. It might make sense to lean towards flexibility in an acquisition, make a short term commitment to Rhys Hoskins or another corner bat that might not be the best fit, and sort of punt the decision making out a year.

3. Don’t Spend on the Bullpen

Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm. All 5 are under control for the 2024 season (and some beyond). It is a good core to a bullpen and one that has late inning options. The farm system has high octane arms like Orion Kerkering, McKinley Moore, Yunior Marte, and Andrew Baker. The 40 man has veteran types like Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz, Erich Uelmen, and Dylan Covey. They probably need to add some arms to the mix, but the roster isn’t screaming out for a closer that may not fit the flexible system, it is looking to maybe churn some of the vets or AAA roster for upside shots to find the next Jeff Hoffman or Andrew Bellatti. If there is still a need in season for a capital C closer the Phillies could move then, for now the resources can be better spent elsewhere and it is the time to turn projects over to Caleb Cotham and company.

4. Upgrade the Margins

The Phillies focused more on impact last offseason than on building out the margins, which was needed given some big holes. They spent what effort they made on the edges of the roster on the bullpen and were rewarded with a deep and dominant set of relievers. The Phillies season ends with Jake Cave at the plate, and with most of the bench in the postseason giving little value to the team. Now the Phillies don’t have a bunch of pinch hit and platoon opportunities among their starters, but they especially did not when it came down the end. They are going to have injuries during the season, and there was a lot of Kody Clemens and others manning starting spots for long periods of time. The Phillies shouldn’t go out and invest huge amounts in the bench, but they should look to build enough depth to be moderately resilient and to build some more opportunities for marginal value. Players like Weston Wilson and Matt Kroon might get looks, but they should expand on that flexible depth. This probably means the end of one or both of Cristian Pache and Edmundo Sosa on the bench since their lack of minor league options locks the Phillies into inflexibility.

There are also some quick thoughts.

• The Phillies aren’t signing two Qualifying Offer players, they didn’t last offseason and the current market is worse than last year.
• They are unlikely to be in a Juan Soto or other star player trade sweepstakes, they just don’t have the ammunition.
• They likely make some edges of the roster trades and claims, but there are unlikely to be many Rule 5 additions and the major league roster is relatively full.
• It is going to be hard to impossible to win a Nick Castellanos trade and replacement scenario.
• Extending Zack Wheeler makes a bunch of sense for the Phillies, but I don’t know what a reasonable for player and team offer is, but they should figure out if there is a meeting place.