Phillies Minor League Recap (Week 23 8/27-9/2)

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Last Week’s Schedule

This Week’s Schedule

  • Lehigh Valley (62-66) @ Buffalo (59-72) – 4 GB
  • Reading (54-71) vs Erie (70-53) – Eliminated
  • Jersey Shore (70-56) @ Aberdeen (65-51) – 3 GB
  • Clearwater (61-61) vs St. Lucie (43-81) – Clinched first half title

Hitter Spotlight

OF Hendry Mendez

8-17 1 2B 1 3B 2 RBI 4 BB 1 K .471/.571/.647

Since the start of July, Mendez is hitting .338/.424/.507 with 14 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 home runs. After hitting just 6 extra base hits in the first half, it is a marked improvement, even if not where you would like a corner outfielder to be. This week he walked more than he struck out, which has been a trend all through the year (now at 51 walks to 48 strikeouts). I don’t have monthly ground ball rates, and he is still at 60.1% on the year (functionally identical to his 60.6% rate last year). He is hitting more line drives, and while his fly ball rate is down it looks to mostly have come from the reduction in pop ups. Overall, he is having a much improved season, but he is repeating high-A and we are missing some of the variables like exit velocity and launch angle to make a full assessment of any improvements. I was generally ready to bury Mendez after the first 3 months, but he really is showing the surface level plate discipline where you can sell yourself on needing more time.

Pitcher Spotlight

RHP Moises Chace

6 IP 1 H 0 R 0 BB 13 K

On Saturday, Chace put together what is likely the best start by a Phillies prospect this season. It is a total surprise, as in his 3 previous starts he had gone 14.2 innings with 7 hit, 4 ER, 6 walks, and 23 strikeouts. A big thing the Phillies had been working with Chace, since coming over from the Orioles for Gregory Soto, is to pitch like a starting pitcher. Prior to joining the Phillies organization he had not pitched more than 4 innings in an appearance and was averaging 18.8 pitches per inning. In his previous appearances he still looked a bit like a reliever starting, but that chanced this week. Chace was fastball heavy early, but starting working in the changeup and sweeper in more as he turned the lineup over. He also spotted his fastball in the zone and both high and low, in addition to up for whiffs. There were also a few batters caught looking when he threw a high sweeper or changeup in the zone when they were expecting the fastball. The result was a total of 81 pitches, and day ended by innings and not pitch count. Overall, Chace is averaging 16.9 pitches per innings with the Phillies and a much reduced walk rate. A big part of all of this is that his stuff is just good enough to attack hitters. Even if you didn’t know the background numbers on his fastball, you would say it pops out. It has that look like it is getting faster and rising up. He comes in real low and has good vertical break on it, and at 93-96 (reportedly touching 97 this week) it is an at least plus pitch that is a big weapon up in the zone. His changeup has good movement, but it still feels like he needs to throw it with a bit more command and deception off the fastball. His sweeper has good two plan movement and he is landing it in the strike zone and not just for chases. He still has a ways to go, but this week was a real look at the dominance when he actually just pitches.

Notes and Thoughts

  • Jersey Shore stumbled through the end of the week and went 3-3 against Hudson Valley which put them 3 games back and without the tie breaker. Leaving them functionally down 4 with 6 to go.
  • By August Aidan Miller standards, it was not a great week. Buoyed by a 5-5 day on Sunday he only hit .308/.333/.539 this week. But he did go 5 for 5 with a double and a home run on Sunday, and he also now has 6 total strikeouts in the last two series (12 games). Since Jersey Shore was mostly eliminated from the postseason this week, Miller will go to Reading where there is an extra week of games. It remains to be seen if the Arizona Fall League is in the cards.
  • While it is easy to draw comparisons between Dante Nori and Justin Crawford for their lack of power, they are getting there in very different ways. Nori went 5 for 11 this week with 5 walks and 1 strikeout in 3 games. He has only one extra base hit, but has a 32.3% line drive rate. The problem is he is running William Bergolla impact numbers with a 90th percentile exit velocity of just 94.8 mph and a max of 96.9 mph through 20 balls in play. He is not chasing much and has a high in zone contact. He just has not really impacted the ball so far.
  • Eduardo Tait got back on the positive trend this week with 3 two hit games and just 3 strikeouts (with 2 walks) in his 17 trips to the plate in 3 games.
  • Casey Steward doesn’t have the polish to be a breakout pitcher this year, but he will definitely be on the top 50. He went 5 scoreless innings this week with 2 walks and 8 strikeouts. His fastball has been 92-95 and has flashed more. His offspeed pitches are a bit muddled and lack crispness and command, but there is a starting pitcher’s arsenal in there.
  • Keaton Anthony just keeps hitting. A hit in all 6 games this week and 7 total on the week. The power is still a massive question, but he just keeps hitting and his defense drew high marks in BA’s manager survey.
  • It was the second straight week where it was command, not control that caused Mick Abel problems. He walked only 1 and threw a bunch of strikes, but hitters got bat to ball when they needed to and while nothing was hit hard, it wasn’t weak contact either. The IronPigs defense let him down some, but it wasn’t the whole story.
  • The other player acquired for Gregory Soto, Seth Johnson, also had himself a nice week, going 6 scoreless innings with a hit, a walk, and 5 strikeouts. Much like Chace, the impressive part of Johnson’s game was the efficiency. After growing in pitch count and innings in each of his appearances, it only took him 82 pitches to go the season high 6 innings. He didn’t get a ton of whiffs, but he was in the zone enough and got opposing batters to expand the zone, all while keeping the quality of contact low. There are some definite tracking issues, but he looks to have mostly sat 93-96 with his fastball.
  • I believe this is Ethan Wilson’s first mention in these recaps, which is a part of going .207/.271/.286 over your first 3+ months of games (he got an injury related late start). He even hit .177 this week. But his 3 hits were all home runs, giving him 7 home runs in August, plus one game of September. In August he hit .270/.329/.619 overall! His prospect stock is non-existent, but it has been a nice end to the year.
  • A long string of dominance for Eiberson Castelllano came to an end this week with his first bad start since the middle of June. At this point he has already made the case he needed to, so it is disappointment more than a warning sign.

Injuries and Transactions

  • Matt Osterberg and Tristan Garnett began rehab assignments
  • Angel Liranzo (CLW,FCL), Tyler Phillips (MLB), Kody Clemens (MLB), Josbel Garcia (CLW), Yunior Marte (LHV), Tyler McKay (REA), Michael Mercado (LHV), Buddy Kennedy (LHV), Reese Dutton (CLW), Brahian Silva (FCL), Diego Gonzalez (LHV), and Freddy Tarnok (LHV) were all assigned to new levels
  • Angel Liranzo and Josh Breaux were activated from the IL
  • Brayden Tucker, Danny Wilkinson, and Tyler McKay were activated from the Development List
  • Pedro Reyes, Rafael Marchan, TJayy Walton, and Trevor Schwecke were all added to the IL
  • Mitch Nuenborn, Jean Cabrera, Jonah Dipoto, and Micah Ottenbreit were all added to the Development List

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Minor Thoughts

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