Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – September and Full Season 2024

Some Awards I Made Up

Hitter of the Year: Otto Kemp, IF

This could easily be Keaton Anthony, Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, or Eduardo Tait, but I went Kemp and his .285/.392/.489 line. Kemp played at 3 different levels (4 if you include rehabbing in Clearwater) and was often the best hitter on each team. He hit the ball hard and got on base, a combination that was rare in the Phillies organization this year. He isn’t the top prospect on the org, and his approach needs some more work, but he went from interesting org guy to legitimate MLB prospect this season.

Starting Pitcher of the Year: Eiberson Castellano, RHP

Castellano was the breakout pitcher of the second half for the Phillies organization. His 3.99 ERA doesn’t jump out, but it was 3.46 before the last two games of the year. He led the Phillies minors in strikeouts while doubling his innings pitched from last year. Castellano doesn’t look like a future ace, but his fastball ticked up to sit 94-96 while also improving his control. Over the course of the season, he went from not having a useable changeup to it looking like a real pitch for him. His breaking ball was a weapon all year. Castellano had fallen off of all prospect lists last year, but now is almost certainly going to be added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Reliever of the Year: Max Lazar, RHP

The Phillies brought in Lazar as a minor league free agent because they liked his stuff in his first year pitching out of the bullpen. Lazar was dominant from the time he entered the organization, not allowing a run with Reading, and outside of a few appearances was dominant with the IronPigs, putting up a season ERA of 1.87. His success made him a lock for the Phillies to not let him go back to free agency, and he was fine in his MLB appearance. He doesn’t have great velocity or secondary pitches, but he is funky and has good control. He should see a lot of time with the IronPigs and on the Northeast Extension the next few years as he has earned his 40 man spot.

Rookie Hitter (First Full Season) of the Year: Keaton Anthony, 1B

The best prospect among first year players was Aidan Miller, but the undrafted Anthony put up the best stats. A betting investigation (that he was not punished for) dropped Anthony out of the draft, and that was the Phillies gain. Anthony has a good 14 games in 2023, but broke out in a big way in 2024. He is a line drive machine with a good approach. He hit .327 with a .414 on base percentage, hitting the ball more with Jersey Shore than with Clearwater. He needs to hit the ball for power more to be an impact prospect, but his batting average and BABIP were not flukes.

Rookie Pitcher (First Full Season) of the Year: Braydon Tucker, RHP

Braydon Tucker was another undrafted free agent signing last year, and wasn’t in the Threshers’ starting rotation to open the year. He still ended up pitching 100 innings with an ERA under 3.00. He does not strike out a ton of batters or walk none, but he is solid at both. His fastball sits just above 90 mph, and while he throws both a sinker and four-seamer neither has great movement. His changeup gets a bunch of sink, but hitters had no trouble getting the bat to it. What he succeeded with is his sweeping slider, that is his most used pitch. He doesn’t get a ton of chases on it, but he is able to getting hitters to whiff in the zone, allowing him to throw it for strikes consistently. Right now he looks like org filler, but it is too early to leave him stuck there.

Best Debut: Moises Chace, RHP

It isn’t that Chace put up good stats after being traded to the Phillies, it is that he improved greatly as a prospect as well. He was more of a thrower and trending as a reliever, but upon arrival in the Phillies organization he began pitching more like a starting pitcher. His fastball has great shape, and he can get misses in and above the zone with it. His sweeper looks good, but he needs to work on throwing it for strikes in addition to chases. His changeup makes it a complete starter’s arsenal. He probably will add a cutter (rather than the Phillies’ normal sinker second fastball) eventually and looks like a very interesting starting pitching prospect going forward.

Season Stat Leaders

Stat Minimums:

• Hitters: 300 PA (full season), 200 PA (FCL), 150 PA (DSL)
• Starters: 80 IP (full season), 35 IP (FCL/DSL)
• Relievers: 40 IP (full season), 20 IP (FCL/DSL)

Hitting

Pitching

Mailbag

@BillyGoldenjr: Do you have a list of minor league free agents

Yes I do! The Org Roster Spreadsheet has a tab for Rule 5 that has upcoming minor league free agents bolded and in red in the MiLB FA Year column.

@Bryantavenue115: Any chance they leave mcgarry unprotected on 40 man for rule 5. He has looked bad

@ThomasMRobson: Is there any hope McGarry ever becomes something?

Going to put these together. There is a near 100% chance that McGarry is left exposed in the Rule 5 and that he goes unpicked. His slider and cutter still look like great pitches, but his fastball has regressed in shape and velocity and has been very hittable. His command and control continues to be a problem, and he struggled with health again. However, his offspeed pitches are good enough that it really is not that big of a jump for him to be an up and down MLB reliever. Griff McGarry the top prospect is over, but it really is not impossible he comes something.

@safetyMatt96: How real are Castellanos and Cabrera as back end guys?

As real as starting pitching prospects can be. I think both, but in particular Cabrera might have some mid rotation upside. Both sit primarily 94-96, with Cabrera showing better fastball shapes, but Castellanos having better command of his. Castellano’s breaking ball might be the best offspeed of the group, even if Cabrera’s changeup is a personal favorite. Cabrera feels more likely to be a starter because the changeup is much more advanced than Castellano’s and his sweeper is a very solid pitch in its own right. Cabrera will rank higher on the offseason list, but both are probably going to be in the same tier and in the same group as Seth Johnson (and likely ahead of him) and probably Moises Chace and Mick Abel as well.

@JohnTibus: With Abel’s and McGarry’s major digression this year, who are the next pitchers that give the Phillies hope for the future?

the above mentioned Chace, Cabrera, Castellano, and Johnson. Those 4 when combined with Abel are not aces, but there might be some future 3s, 4s, and relievers in that group. All of them will be in AA or above and many on the 40 man roster by the time the offseason is over. He is probably a reliever, but you should continue an eye on Wen Hui Pan.

@DylanDeNick2: What DSL prospects just missed your list that you think could be real risers on future lists?

I don’t know if any DSL players will make the list this year, but a couple will be close. I don’t know if Jaeden Calderon and Victor Cardoza are going to be real risers, but their offensive performances were really interesting. If Jalvin Arias can get healthy, he might be able to reestablish value. I really liked what I saw from RHP Brad Pacheco. He is already 91-95 and there might be some more and he has a developing change and a good looking curveball. He hasn’t pitched much but there might be a chance the stuff jumps. This was RHP Pedro Peralta’s age 17 season, and his command is terrible, but he is up to 98 with an interesting looking slider. If he can improve the command he good jump. Alexander De Los Santos is another RHP who pitched most of the year at age 17. He put up very good numbers and was 89 to 93 with interesting secondaries, all will being very skinny and projectable. I would also keep an eye on Raymon Rosario a pitchability lefty who was 90-93, Eligio Arias an overaged giant up to the 97, and then relievers Darling Reyes and Enderson Jean with big velocity and control problems.

@ah_pod: also what are the expectations for Abel at this point

I still think there is a starting pitcher in there, even if it is more towards frustrating back end guy. He was averaging 96 on his fastball over the last few months and his slider is a good pitch when he can keep it separated from his curveball. I am sure they will go back to the drawing board on the delivery and pitch shape stuff this offseason, but there are still plenty of flashes there is still MLB stuff. I will probably write him up as a #3/#4 starter upside this offseason.

@Snapshottz: Overall, who was the most overwhelming and who was the most underwhelming player in the system relative to expectations this year?

Underwhelming is probably Carlos De La Cruz who was a borderline top 10 prospect last offseason for me and now is likely heading to minor league free agency after a terrible season. On the overwhelming side, it is probably Eduardo Tait who won’t move up a ton numerically, but what he did at his age this year was very very impressive.

@ah_pod: realistic expectations for Miller and Painter next year.

I think the hype on Miller got a little out of hand, but he is still a very good prospect. The problem? is that the Phillies have 3 good to very good major league players at positions he could possibly impact in Stott, Turner, and Bohm. It is very unlikely that Miller has a breakout of the level that moves one of those guys to a different position or lesser role. The realistic expectation is that Miller puts himself into 2026 plans with an optimistic outcome being that he positions himself in the second half of 2025 to be a call up if any of those previously mentioned players missed a large amount of time to injury.

It is hard to know exactly where Painter is in his rehab physically and performance wise. Based on comparable pitcher recovery times, I would expect he pitches 80 to 120 innings next year, likely mostly at the major league level. The Phillies will probably try to do a bunch of things to make those innings matter, and possibly into the postseason. I would love to say that he should be an ace right away, but coming back from surgery, I would expect there to be some fatigue and some issues at time. I don’t know where that balance is for 2025, maybe he is a guy who averages like a lower innings #3 that is an aggregate of ace flashes and struggles?

@AndrewVU041: What’s the most aggressive promotion to the bigs schedule for our top prospects. Will Painter push for a rotation spot in ’25? Can Miller or Crawford produce in the bigs next year?

@GarySie8420: Who (if any) of the prospects could have an impact at the MLB level in 2025?

Going to put these two together. The easy one is that if Andrew Painter comes back healthy and fully effective, he is likely to spend much of his time in the majors. I think Miller and Crawford are unlikely to be impactful pieces in 2025. I mentioned expectations for Miller above, and unless Crawford makes some approach improvements, I expect him to struggle at higher levels in addition to the ground ball rates. Ideally, you want Crawford to emerge much like Miller has an option if injuries hit, but ideally the emergence of Rojas or a good year from Marsh would keep him in the minors with an eye on 2026 (this of course precludes the Phillies making a big move for another outfielder this offseason).

If he hadn’t gotten hurt, Gabriel Rincones Jr. was a darkhorse for the 2024 Phillies, but he missed much of the season. Next year if the Phillies find themselves in need of a LH hitting platoon outfielder, he could fine himself in the majors. Then there is the pitching prospects mentioned above, some of which could provide rotation or bullpen depth. In terms of real impact, it is probably only Andrew Painter, but there should be more prospects who can contribute.