Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – April 2025

Stock Changes

*Rankings are from preseason list / Statcast stats from Robert Orr’s website or Baseball Savant

Stock Up

2B Aroon Escobar (#11) – Escobar entered the year as a popular sleeper because his underlying numbers were very good, and he just had not stayed healthy or consistent. In April, Escobar hit .360/.461/.627 in 19 games with 5 home runs. The underlying numbers are still very good with an elite blend of power and contact. Escobar has a 90th percentile EV of 105.6 mph with a max of 108.8 mph, which are about where Aidan Miller was in Clearwater. Escobar however has a 92% zone-contact rate which is near the top of the league, and while he has some chase issues, he isn’t getting exploited by offspeed pitches. Unlike most hitters at his level his aggression at the plate has translated to a very high swing rate on the pitches he should be swinging at too. Escobar still has some contact quality issues, and you would like to see him get the ball in the air a bit more, but his line drive rate is very good. He has only played second base this year and that is probably the best position for him. He is firmly in the same prospect group as Eduardo Tait and Justin Crawford, but it may just be another month of him doing this before we are having a conversation about him vs Miller as the best hitting prospect in the system.

RHP Mick Abel (#10) – With a 2.88 ERA over his first 6 starts of the year, Mick Abel is easily off to his best start of his career. He is getting quick outs, not letting situations spiral, and not putting himself in trouble. On the base level, he is throwing more strikes and his walk rate is down from 15.1% to 9.1%. His strikeout rate is moderately up from 22.7% to 25.2%, and he has a more reasonable BABIP of .292 (it was .346 in 2024) driven by slightly fewer line drives and some more ground balls. It hasn’t been with a huge shift in stuff either, Abel is healthy to start and he is throwing a bit harder (average fastball velocity is up to 95.9 from last year’s average of 95.0), but none of his pitches have big shifts in movement (his slider is 2″ more horizontal, his changeup is more vertical, and his curveball is slightly sweepier). He has lowered where he has thrown his fastball slightly, hitting more of the top of the zone instead of looking for chases (or just missing his spot). He is then throwing his slider much more (though he shelved it in his last start as it looks like he is focusing on a specific pitch each time out). His zone % on his slider has jumped from 34.8% and his 4-seam fastball has gone from 39.4% to 48.8%. Hitters are hitting both when they are in the zone, but overall he is generating the same amount of good strikes (swinging and looking), which greatly decreasing the number of balls. With those two pitches in the zone, Abel has been able to expand with his changeup and curveball. His curve has long gotten hammered in the zone, and now he is throwing it in the zone less and because he is getting ahead with his other pitches, his chase rate is way up. Abel’s sinker continues to be low performing swing and miss pitch, but he only throws it to righties and it has generated week contact while being in the zone. All of these changes should be sustainable, but none of them really jump Abel’s ceiling, they raise his floor. Abel has not recaptured that front end upside, but he is looking like he could be a #3/#4 for a team fairly soon.

IF Otto Kemp (#22) – In the first month of the year, Otto Kemp hit .315/.414/.685 in AAA which is notable no matter how you slice it. For as stellar as the surface stats are, the underlying numbers are much more muddled. Kemp is hitting the ball hard, his 90th percentile EV (107.9mph) is among league leaders, as is the damage on balls in play. He pulls the ball in the air and he swings at pitches in the zone. However, that swing rate in the zone is part of an overall trend of swinging a lot, as he has gone from patient to free swinger. He chases more than most of the hitters in AAA, he swings and misses on offspeed pitches at a very high rate, and he has a below average contact rate in the zone. Given his lack of pedigree and athleticism, there is real skepticism about his ability to hold up against premium stuff. Right now the gap between the majors and AAA has never been wider and IronPigs hitters on average are facing pitches 2mph lower than their major league counterparts. Defensively, Kemp has flexibility but the Phillies have not prioritized getting him LF reps which would be his best path to the majors. His other positions are a struggle, with third probably the best options. Despite all the negatives, Kemp is currently the best hitter in AAA and that is going to eventually give him a chance with the Phillies (an injury is his mostly likely path now) or with another team after a trade. He isn’t a top prospect, but he is on all radars.

Stock Down

RHP Moises Chace (#3) – When we all had time to digest the 2024 data, it was clear that Chace was one of the best pitchers in the Phillies organization. He say mid 90s with a fastball with elite traits while also showing a promising sweeper, cutter, and changeup. His command and pitchability needed work, but were showing positive trends after coming over from the Orioles. Chace reportably didn’t throw over the winter and did not show up to camp in throwing shape. It is now the end of April and while Chace’s command is seeing improvements over the month, he is only up to 4 innings and is mostly sitting 90-93. The current version of Chace is not a top pitching prospect, but we also know there is a top pitching prospect in there somewhere. Where we are right now is waiting to see if the next 1-2 months sees him round into shape, or if last summer was a brief glimpse of something bright we will never have.

2B Devin Saltiban (#9) – It was a good, but not great year for Devin Saltiban in 2024. He only hit .237 with some large swing and miss concerns against offspeed pitches. We don’t have granular pitch level data for Jersey Shore, but Saltiban is posting an alarming 32.0% K% along with a collapse in contact rate (73.7% to 64.2%) and an increase in swing rate (43.6% to 50.6%). In particular he has struggled greatly with RHPs (which he is seeing 80% of the time). Part of the reason for optimism around Saltiban was that his background made it likely he would take time to adjust to seeing quality pitching, and that his second year would be a step forward. One month won’t represent that step forward never happening, but it has been a rough start for Saltiban.

LHP Mavis Graves (#14) – It is never a good thing when your ERA is 4 digits long, and Graves at 10.32 is in that place. There was definite buzz about Graves in some circles based on the strikeouts and performance of his breaking balls in Clearwater. As a big 21 year old it was also easy to see future projection and growth in velocity and command in his future. He was shaky in the Spring Breakout, and then had a good first start of the season, but has been a mess since. Much of it is command, he is not getting batters to consistently chase his offspeed pitches because he is not throwing early strikes and then making competitive pitches. He is still missing some bats (K/9 is up from 12.5 to 15.9, but K% actually declined from 31.8% to 29.4%), which is good because the stuff has not taken a step forward. Graves has been 89-93 with his fastballs, often taking some time to build that velocity up. None of this is an end to his prospect status, but a lack of growth in his 3rd full season is concerning. It is April in the Northeast so maybe as the weather warms we start to see better results.

Mixed

OF Justin Crawford (#4) – On the surface, Crawford’s AAA stats are encouraging, he is hitting .297 with a .368 on base thanks to his highest walk rate of the last 3 seasons (10.4%). Early in the year he was hitting the ball harder, but he still has a 90th percentile EV of 104.2 mph which is above average among AAA hitters. However, much of his numbers are being driven by a .384 BABIP, which being driven in part by a career high line drive rate, but his ground ball rate remains unsustainably high and the line drive gains have come from his fly ball rate, and this all shows up in 0 home runs and a ISO under .100. The approach and contact numbers aren’t painting a rosier story. He is not swinging and missing at offspeed pitches, but he has just an average zone contact rate because he is struggling greatly with fastballs. He is also expanding the zone at one of the highest rates in AAA while not swinging at pitches in the hittable part of the zone. In my Lehigh Valley season preview I mentioned we would need to look at process over result for Crawford as he was challenged in AAA, and so far the process numbers look very poor. The pity is we are seeing the underlying numbers that support him being some sort of impact hitter.

RHP Seth Johnson (#15) – The Phillies started with Johnson in the rotation, but once the rotation stabilized with Abel’s reemergence and health for others and the bullpen scuffled they moved him to the bullpen. I wrote about the why two weeks ago and that still holds true. Johnson has struggled at times in his new role, but also shown growth in stuff in short bursts as well. Given that the reliever risk was always there, and probably likely, it has been built into his ranking and standing in the system since the offseason. Really the end of month lookback on Johnson is that he has moved from being the 5th or 6th best starting pitching prospect in the org to being the top relief prospect.

OF Dante Nori (#8) – Nori, the Phillies 1st round pick in 2024 is both fortunately and unfortunately doing what we expected of him. He is only hitting .235, but has a 13.9% walk rate which is keeping his on base high. He has hit for almost no power and is in the bottom quartile for exit velocity numbers, which is not great given he is not a ground ball merchant. His line drive rate is high, do to slap hitting qualities and less that he is driving the ball. Much of it comes down to approach. Nori has a 20.8% strikeout rate, but the underlying numbers don’t indicate a free swing who is chasing and missing. His chase rate, zone contact rate, and whiffs vs offspeed pitches all range from good to great. However, he is posting a swing rate that is incredibly low, making a profile that is almost Bryson Stott but with less impact. He does not need to be a free swinger or lift and pull, but he needs to show some ability to punish pitches thrown in prime areas of the zone.

Eduardo Tait (#5) – When the Phillies promoted Tait from the FCL to the Threshers last year, he just became a pure free swinger and his walk rate plummeted and his strikeouts climbed. So far this year, he has dealt with the problem by swinging more. Fortunately, that has been at pitches in his hitting zone, and his chase rates have not increase. His chase rates are still some of the worst in A ball, and he needs to get them to somewhere that is just mediocre pretty quickly or pitchers are going to throw him nothing in the zone. A lot of the damage against him has been on fastballs, especially elevated, and that fits with how his swing works. Speaking of the swing, he is one of the premier pure power hitters in the Florida State League. He is one of the league leaders in damage on balls he puts in play, exit velocity, and pulling fly balls. Still just 18 years old, he has hit a home run at 113.8 mph (which for context, only 13 home runs in the majors this year have been hit harder than that). He is coming to holes in his swing, it is imperative he does not give pitchers more openings against him. He is improving as a catcher, and has mostly controlled the running game, but he has more work to do overall.

Monthly Stat Leaders

Hitting

Pitching

Mailbag

@thomasmrobson.bsky.social: Which prospects do you see as most likely to be moved for midseason reinforcements?

@papergreat.bsky.social: Yeah, I’m interested too in how the first month (in both majors & minors) has changed your view of the “willing to trade in the right deal” list. Does Rojas’ recent hitting boost the likelihood of a Crawford trade? Is Abel back to being a piece someone would value? (Or do Phils consider keeping?)

Going to combine these two. In general the Phillies move fairly obvious groups of prospects. The most obvious are those that they think the outside values higher (Starlyn Caba, George Klassen are two that come to mind), are nearing 40 man decisions and don’t have clear pathways, or players that won’t contribute because their way is blocked. So with that in mind, Gabriel Rincones Jr. is in need of a 40 man spot and is mostly blocked. Hendry Mendez if his hot season continues could move into that range as well. Eiberson Castellano will be up for not just the Rule 5, but minor league free agency, and teams already were interested and might be more so when he doesn’t have Rule 5 restrictions. Alex McFarlane also will need a 40 man spot this offseason, and he may have more value as a trade piece if the Phillies don’t view him as a fast track major leaguer. That gets into positions of strength, and the Phillies have starting pitching depth, so in addition to the above Jean Cabrera, Mick Abel, and Moises Chace will all likely come up in conversations.

If the Phillies are looking at a major addition, Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait are going to be near the top of team’s ask lists and if the Phillies are not the highest org on either they definitely are the type of player the Phillies have moved.

As for Crawford, Johan Rojas isn’t going to dictate that decision. The Phillies are generally one of the more optimistic orgs about Crawford’s outlook, and I really only could see them moving him in deal for a long term piece they value (like the Crochet conversations).

Abel’s value is definitely up and more appealing to a variety of teams, and likely more for a rebuilding team looking for cheap starting pitching now. The Phillies in theory have a full rotation next year with Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Painter, and Nola so Abel is a bit of a luxury in that way. However, he is only in his first year on the 40 man roster and Wheeler and Luzardo are not locked up long term. That means he has value as depth, and we have seen that having real starting pitching depth has value.

@breakerofchairs.bsky.social: With the bullpen being terrible when you think Koyo Aoyagi gets called up? He looks better than spring training. Still walking a bit too much. Feels like having something different out of the pen could help.

@oneineptguard.bsky.social: Besides Abel, Johnson, and Chase I’m seeing 7 pitchers on the 40 man in the minors. I could be wrong but it looks like only Orion and Banks have options remaining in the big league bullpen. Are any of those guys in the minors close to or able to push Hernandez/Ruiz off the roster? Assuming Ross (as the long guy) and Romano have longer leashes of course. Is Orion in any danger of going to AAA being that he does have an option, for a fresh arm? (Seems unlikely, but i guess it “could” happen)

@wheelerdeals.bsky.social: How far off in general is Seth Johnson from being a potential bullpen piece in the majors? I know he just got moved there, so I’m assuming at least months.

Unsurprising there are questions about the bullpen (though the situation is much improved since they were asked).

I don’t see Aoyagi as a major league reliever. He is definitely weird, but I think he is going to need to show something more than that. Since the second question, the Phillies acquired Daniel Robert who still has another option year after this one and has a very interesting sweeper. I don’t think he or Mercado, Sweet, Lazar, or de Geus is really pushing Ruiz (when healthy) or Hernandez off the roster. Seth Johnson looked really exciting in his first week in the bullpen, but this week was a little more like Seth Johnson the starting pitcher, but in short bursts. That is fine, but this is probably going to be a month or so of him figuring out the role. The good news is that Carlos Hernandez has actually looked better (I wrote this right before he came into the game on Sunday), and with Walker moving to the bullpen they have a long man and he can just continue to work in low leverage and they can figure out what they have. Kerkering feels like he is just off and Tanner Banks has actually looked exceptional over the last week plus.

@kp-paul.bsky.social: It’s only been a few weeks, but do you see any promotions to next level happening before early June? For guys that are close, what do you they need to improve/focus on before leveling up?

Aroon Escobar is the notable one. I don’t know how it goes with Saltiban, Rincon, and DeMartini getting most of the infield time. However, if he continues to walk like he has and mash through the league, they are going to have to promote him to keep him challenged. Titan Hayes, the Threshers closer, just had his first poor appearance of the season, but he has been dominant and looks like he should be a quick moving reliever, and I could see him moving up in another month.

@jesuszoidberg.bsky.social: Probably a lazy question, but in your opinion has Mick Abel turned a corner?

I got into Abel more above, but yes he has turned a corner mentally and that has driven much of the changes. He is not fishing for chases or letting things get out of control. He is just pitching and while that hasn’t gotten him back to his previous heights, he is a legitimate prospect.

@melkasinkas.bsky.social: What happened to Nola? He was always considered number 2 to Wheeler but everyone had Sanchez and even Luzardo above him before the season and then he goes out and has the worst start of the season for his career. Was there any signs in last two years that would point to this?

Yes, there were plenty of signs he starts slow, and now we are seeing him to start to look more like Aaron Nola. He is probably more of a #3 these days, but with enough innings and reliability that he is going to get close to #2 value. Hopefully, Luzardo, Sanchez, and Painter become more of the front of the rotation and Nola can spend the rest of his contract being the veteran bulk guy. Given the cost of pitching, it is likely his contract will continue to look better.

@norseofbroad.bsky.social: What is a comp for Aroon Escobar? What do we know about his defense/future position?

I don’t know if I have a great comp for Escobar given the strengths he has shown. He has the potential to be a 25-30 home run bat, but I suspect he would end up below that unless he makes some contact quality gains. He is high contact, good approach, and good power hitter and that is a really high upside if it comes together. Right now he is at second base, and that is probably his better position, but he has the arm strength to play third. He actually moves pretty well and most of his mistakes tend to be of the youthful variety. His ceiling is all-star middle of the lineup impact player, we just have so little track record to confidently say that will happen.

@nickbpss.bsky.social: How do you like Miller / Crawford compared to Teel / Montgomery?

This is about the Garrett Crochet deal for those not thinking about the Chicago White Sox. Miller is now struggling and Crawford is sort of who he is this year. Montgomery was just promoted high A and is hitting well this year, and Teel is turning around his year after a slow start in AAA. I think there are probably more upside in Aidan Miller, but I might take Teel and Montgomery if given the choice because of Miller’s struggles and a lack of trust in Crawford. Now what else might have been in that Phillies package over last summer might be interesting, but we probably won’t know what the Phillies fully offered. I still think the White Sox should have been able to get better than either of those offers.

@oneineptguard.bsky.social: There’s only 2 batters on the 40 man roster not currently in philly (Stubbs and Marsh/Stevenson). As injuries happen over the course of season, any guess who the eventual next hitter up might be? Obv this isn’t imminent but just a forward thought.

If there is an injury to a corner outfielder (Kepler/Castellanos) the next call up is probably Gabriel Rincones Jr. He is greatly struggling vs LHPs, but is holding his own vs righties and they could figure out a platoon to make it work. If it is an infielder or Schwarber, there is a good chance they just call up Otto Kemp and see if he can just make something happen. Center field depends on the injury, but Oscar Mercado is possibly the Johan Rojas replacement and Stevenson is obviously the Marsh replacement. Christian Arroyo and Buddy Kennedy both also could be infield replacements if say Edmundo Sosa is heart for a period of time.