Just over a day after indicating that they were done making moves, outside of maybe a swing #5 starter/bullpen arm, the Phillies made a big swing. The big pieces are obviously left handed starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo going from the Marlins to the Phillies, and shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba going from the Phillies to the Marlins. Outfielder Emaarion Boyd will be going with Caba and catcher/outfielder Paul McIntosh will be going from the Marlins to the Phillies.
In some ways, this trade is like the previous moves for Jordan Romano and Max Kepler where the Phillies are paying less to buy a bounce back. Luzardo had elbow and back injuries last year that limited him to 66.2 innings with a 5.00 ERA. His velocity was down, he missed less bats, and the quality of contact against him increased. It wasn’t the first time he has struggled with injuries, and it probably won’t be last.
The upside of Luzardo is why the Phillies made the trade though. He just turned 27 in September and has two more years of team control. His best year was 2023 when he has a 3.58 ERA in 178.2 innings while being 7th in the least in K%. From 2022 to 2024 he is 4th in fastball velocity for a left handed starting pitcher behind just Garrett Crochet and Shane McClanahan. He throws a 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup. The sinker is new, and has had poor results. His 4-seam fastball lost some effectiveness last year as his velocity suffered. His slider and changeup are both good chase pitches with his changeup looking like one that could see more usage.
Overall, a healthy Luzardo is a mid rotation starter that is going to have stretches where he looks like an ace and stretches that drive you insane because he isn’t being that ace. For now he slots in as the Phillies #5 starting pitcher and assuming Andrew Painter reaches a partial amount of his ceiling soon, he probably is a high leverage arm in a postseason scenario.
The other player coming to the Phillies, Paul McIntosh, was a non drafted free agent signing by the Marlins in 2021. He reached AAA in 2023, but spent 2024 in AA. In 2024, he started playing left field as well, and it looks like his catching ability is being called somewhat into question. According to Baseball America he has some of the best raw power in the minors, and he had really solid approach numbers in AA (10.4% BB% 19.8% K%). He is however 27 years old and it looks like the quality of contact does not match the potential impact. He should join the upper minors catching depth that is now Josh Breaux, Payton Henry, and Caleb Ricketts.
The main player going back the other way is catching prospect Starlyn Caba. Caba was slated to be my #3 prospect in the system, in a tier with Justin Crawford, Eduardo Tait, and Moises Chace that was a decent bit behind Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller. Caba is an elite defensive player at short, making hard to plays look easy with his range and body control. He has an advanced feel for the strike zone from both sides, walking more than he struck out, while also being more right with the strike zone than the complex level umpires. He was a bit passive against poor control pitchers, but it is likely he will swing more as more pitches are in the zone. He currently lacks power, and while there is room to add some and some glimpses of upside when he hits a hard grounder, it is a legitimate worry. He has plus plus speed and moved from a poor to a solid base runner over the course of the season. There is a chance if he can get more impact that he is a star level player because of the glove, but it is more likely he hits in the back third of an order while contending for gold gloves. In many ways he reminds me of former Phillies prospect J.P. Crawford.
The second player is Emaarion Boyd, a center fielder with elite speed and then a bunch of other questions. He improved in the back half of 2024, but he has never been the defender that his speed indicates he should be, nor has he always been the base stealer expected either. He does hit the ball a bit harder than his frame would suggest, but he is never going to have much power. He started the year off terrible with the BlueClaws, but hit .261/.321/.383 from June to the end of the year. He profiles more as a 5th outfielder, but with enough upside to be a fringe regular if he can get his routes figured out. He was slated to be my #30 prospect in the system, but was slightly redundant with Crawford and then addition of Dante Nori, Griffin Burkholder, and John Spikerman last year.
It is sort of reductive to say this trade comes down to Luzardo’s health, but it comes down to Luzardo’s health. The Phillies are paying 33% of the price of Crochet for the chance and probably 66% of Crochet, but could be left with nothing if the elbow and back issues crop up again. In terms of the rest of the roster, the Phillies can move Ranger Suarez if an advantageous deal presents itself, but they don’t have to. They can enter the year with a full rotation and either bump Walker to swing man or DFA. They should be able to move Michael Mercado full time to the bullpen where his velocity was much more impressive. They can also then spend more time on developing Seth Johnson, Mick Abel, Jean Cabrera, and Moises Chace. When Andrew Painter is ready he can move into a 6 man rotation, or slot in for an injured pitcher. It is doubling down a bit on pitching, but it is value they probably couldn’t pass up on.
Definitely a lot of gambling going on here.
I read a story indicating that the Cubs were not comfortable with Luzardo’s medical report.
OTOH if Luzardo remained healthy and on the Marlins and pitched in the first half like he did in 2023, the Marlins could have seen a near-Crochet-like return at the trade deadline. They sold low.
Ultimately, the biggest gamble here for the Phillies is the money (salary + tax) that Luzardo is costing them in 2023. If they’re watching their wallet, they can’t afford to have that be a noncontributing sunk cost.