There are many ways to win in the postseason, but in the last few years the trend has emerged that with the way rest days are in the postseason a team can rely on 2 starting pitchers and 2-3 shutdown relievers and ride them through the postseason. It is the model the Phillies took in 2022 when they rode Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Seranthony Dominguez, and Jose Alvarado through the NLCS until they ran out of gas in the World Series. It is a strategy that is reliant on individual dominance, gutsy management, and really having no other options available to the team.
The 2023 Phillies, are missing a very important ingredient in this formula, a second ace level starting pitcher. Aaron Nola is certainly capable of a dominant start, but that has not been something he has been able to deliver this season in anyway that could be described as reliably. Zack Wheeler has been better, and it is important to remember he entered the 2022 postseason off injuries, but has no always been at an ace level. Wheeler and Nola accounted for 11 of the 17 starts Phillies pitchers made in the postseason and 61.1 of the 150 total innings. They make a similar percentage of starts and innings, but it might not be fair to expect the same dominance and maybe not 6+ innings in early rounds.
The next three pitchers by innings in the 2022 postseason for the Phillies were Ranger Suarez, Jose Alvarado, and Seranthony Dominguez, and when combined with the two starters they pitched 100 of 150 innings, or two thirds. The rest of the innings came from a combination of Zach Eflin, Connor Brogdon, Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson, Andrew Bellatti, Brad Hand, Kyle Gibson, Nick Nelson, and Bailey Falter, with Gibson, Nelson, and Falter barely chipping in any.
When you read those names it becomes pretty clear the quality of the Phillies pitching was much worse in 2022 than it is right now. Eflin and Robertson got the job done, but it was ugly and the team picked their spots. Bellatti and Brogdon were brilliant in their appearances, but the team worked them mostly in low leverage. This is true of most big league bullpens, by the time a team hits the 4th or 5th best arm, things go sideways quickly.
The Phillies however, have a bullpen full of arms that should be able to handle top lineups. There are certainly players that are trusted more than others, but it gets very deep without a sudden plunge in the quality of stuff, and that mirrors the Phillies opponent in the 2022 World Series, the Houston Astros. The Astros had a bye to open the postseason, so their innings totals are skewed, but usage less so. They used Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander as their primary starters, Lance McCullers was more of a 3rd/4th starter and Cristian Javier started and had a relief appearance. They relied heavily on their top three arms (Abreu, Pressly, and Montero), but all of their arms got work with Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy operating more as long men. In the World Series, they were able to bridge long spans of innings with just relievers, and the Phillies were only able to get to them for two runs.
Theoretical is all well and good, but how does this work practically? The Phillies are likely to deploy Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm flexibly, Strahm could come in as an opener, with men on base, or vs a pocket of lefties in high leverage. Hoffman has been Thomson’s go to man with runners on or in high leverage for the last month, and both pitchers could go on a wrap around if the team sees a pocket of batters or needs innings. I would expect both to be available early in the game and if they situation does not arise, then they enter the back end mix. For those middle innings, the Phillies can bridge by picking spots for Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, and Orion Kerkering. Left handed batters are hitting .127/.205/.228 off of Soto and right handed batters are hitting .219/.315/.328 off of Dominguez. Kerkering is a bit of a wild card, but batters have not seen his slider and he actually has had heavy reverse platoon splits. Michael Lorenzen could also work himself into this mix.
That still leaves Craig Kimbrel and Jose Alvarado, plus any of Strahm or Hoffman that has not been used. The Phillies have already shown that they are willing to mix and match Kimbrel and Alvarado in the 8th and 9th innings, and unlike past seasons, Kimbrel has been good in those early saves with a .568 OPS against in the 8th and .602 in the 9th.
All this also leaves out Cristopher Sanchez who could start or relieve and Ranger Suarez who could relieve, but with the amount of depth they have in the bullpen, should be starting more than relieving.
Given that Thomson was willing in the regular season to start warming up the bullpen early in the regular season behind Aaron Nola, they could run a trust, but verify, behind him and if he got into trouble in say the 4th inning they could turn to a Hoffman or Strahm, get clear of the trouble and then go Soto and Dominguez in the 5th and 6th, turn to other fireman in the 7th (while having them available for Soto or Dominguez fires) and then Kimbrel and Alvarado in the 8th and 9th. If they advance, they should be able to do a Strahm opens, Walker for 2-4 innings, with a RP to clean up an inning, and then to Sanchez for 1-2 innings, before getting to late innings.
The Phillies are still going to need good performance from the bullpen, but by trading out innings of Brogdon, Bellatti, Hand, Eflin, and Robertson with Hoffman, Strahm, Soto, Dominguez, and Kerkering they should be able to better cover the innings that Aaron Nola and possible Zack Wheeler isn’t going to give them. This may be more of the “bullpen” game that fans railed about last offseason, but the bullpen can bullpen game and in October the Phillies have proven themselves creative enough to be up to the task.