The Phillies have not had many call ups this year and none of real note, but…
It isn’t that Seth Johnson is a top top prospect, I suspect he will be in the 11-20 range on the offseason list, but he is a prospect of note. Unlike most of his peers both new and old in the Phillies system, I haven’t really written a dedicated review of him yet this year, so why not take this oppurtunity.
Before getting into Johnson the player it is worth talking about the roster reasons why the Phillies are doing this. They just don’t have anyone else. Spencer Turnbull is still hurt, Taijuan Walker has been terrible, Tyler Phillips just got shelled in Toronto, Kyle Tyler got hit in AAA, and Kolby Allard can’t be called up right now. That left just Johnson on the 40 man roster among players who pitched a meaningful number of innings in a game. Johnson is already on the 40 man roster and has been since the beginning of the year, so he has already used an option year so there is nothing but service time to be wagered on this call up. The Phillies could do a bullpen game, but that options (bulk innings from Nick Nelson, Taijuan Walker, and Max Lazar) is not an attractive one either.
Johnson is going to be called up to start, but it won’t be in a normal starting expectation. The Rays took Johnson in the first round of the 2019 draft as a converted shortstop in his first year on the mound. That year he pitched a combined 83.1 innings. The following year was 2020 and there was no minor league season. He spent the first half of 2021 in a piggy back starting role in the Rays organizations before becoming a full time starter in the second half, throwing what is still a career high 93.2 innings. He pitched in 7 games in 2022 before having Tommy John surgery and then being traded to the Orioles at the deadline. He pitched 10.1 innings in 2023 in rehab appearances across 4 levels. The Orioles babied him to open 2024 and only after the trade to the Phillies for Gregory Soto has he started to pitch deeper. He reached 5 or more innings in his last 3 starts in AAA, and his 6 on August 30th was a new pro career high. His last 3 starts were his only over 80 pitches this year, and his 98 pitches on 8/23 represent a pro career high.
This leaves him just off of his career high innings total, at 88.2 innings this year. Since he is coming back from Tommy John, the Phillies are not going to push him too deep, so he is starting to near his season innings limit, and his lack of build up during the season due to those limits means he is probably destined for 4-5 innings and 80-85 pitches on Sunday.
That leaves us with, “What kind of pitcher is Seth Johnson?” and an answer that is almost as messy.
Johnson’s primary pitch is his 4-seam fastball. In the past he has gotten it up to 98-99, but he is firmly 93-96, touch 97 with it. It has plus riding action, averaging 18 inches of induced vertical break. However, despite being only 6’1″, Johnson’s delivery is average extension and more over the top giving him a below average angle on the pitch. The result is a plus pitch, but one that isn’t quite as good as the raw IVB numbers would indicate.
The slider/cutter conversation is slightly more messy because they look to blend. To me he throws a cutter at 87-89 and slider more 83-85. There is a lot of blend in between them, but the main difference is a couple more inches of horizontal break on the slider. The harder cutter has the potential to be a plus pitch with better command and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies maybe get the slider a bit sweepier with time.
His curveball is a big looping rainbow in the high 70s. AAA hitters have hit it in the zone and have not chased it. It is probably more of a steal a strike pitch than anything else.
His changeup is a work in progress. There is some good movement numbers to it, but it doesn’t seem like he has great feel for it. Hitters have been able to foul it off and he has struggled to throw it for strikes. It functions a bit more like a sinker right now in getting some bad contact with it due to the velocity difference (he throws it 86-89).
Johnson has struggled with command, which is not surprising given this is his first year back from surgery. He can decently elevate the fastball at the top of the zone and can get it in the zone to sort of quadrants rather than real pinpoint. His curveball command is probably next best, but is held back by the pitch quality. It is command of the cutter that will really allow him to elevate his game. Upper minors hitters have not swung and missed much vs his stuff and he has been relatively inefficient with his pitch count all year.
For 2024, it is now just going to be about effectiveness, which probably means 4-seam fastballs up and cutters in to lefties and away from righties, with the occasional curve to change eye level.
Going forward, he will be on his last minor league option. He is athletic enough that another full offseason of healthy work you expect to improve the command. If the command improves and he can throw the changeup with some more feel and really separate the slider and cutter, he has a mid rotation ceiling, and a decent path towards a 5-6 inning #4 type starter. He is already 25, and that is a decently long to do list before running out of options, so he has a lot of future reliever risk as the Phillies look to maximize their 40 man roster.
Interesting writeup, thanks.
The Phillies look to have a pretty fascinating rotation at Triple-A next year. This year, Triple-A mostly served as the “Backup #5 Starters Warehouse” until it ran out of inventory.
Next year, Triple-A will be filled with guys with legitimate hope of a future with the Phillies or elsewhere.