The draft ended yesterday afternoon. The Phillies selected 20 players and have a chance, but not guarantee, to sign all 20. They have reportedly already come to deals to with three undrafted free agents and I expect that number will increase some, especially if not all draftees are signed, but not be a huge number as each signing requires a release.
Let’s get to the quick recap of day 3 of the draft before dealing with the whole ordeal (you can find pick by pick recaps here). Right after the Phillies indicated they did not have extra money after the first two days and today was going to be dudes they like that throw hard. It was 10 different college relievers, almost all with control problems and/or poor results. They took righties AND lefties this year (they have only drafted 3 left handed pitchers total in Barber’s last 4 drafts), often from non-major schools, but mixing in guys currently pitching in summer leagues and a couple in the middle of transferring. On Day 3 of the draft you aren’t getting guys with stuff and polish, and so the Phillies are making a bet against college programs that the Phillies pitching development can pull something more out of these players than they could.
This sort of fits into the overall draft strategy, and something Brian Barber said yesterday, which is that there are fewer hitters than there are viable pitchers. You can take a bunch of arms with interesting traits late, because there are frankly more of them. It also fits with development, because with fewer teams there are fewer regular at bats, but there is a near ravenous need for innings. Barber did say they didn’t view any of the pitchers they took as starters, and most pitched out of the bullpen this year. My push back is that between Clearwater and the FCL there are 7-9 starting pitchers right now, and that includes some guys who probably shouldn’t be starting, guy who will be in Jersey Shore, and some guys who are really struggling. Some of these guys are going to get a chance in a rotation because innings are needed. Taking relievers though isn’t bad, because a team needs really 15 hitters on their 40 man roster, the modern game however requires a small army of relievers. So while the stats are bad, there is a much more plausible MLB future for the arms they took Tuesday afternoon than many alternatives.
To the draft overall, not liking this draft comes back to not liking the 1st round pick, and really not liking the value of the first round pick, especially if the “reach” didn’t save money to make other moves. This is where I sort of land. I like Burkholder in the 2nd round, I am lukewarm on Spikerman in the 3rd, and I neutral to positive on the rest of the class. It is hard for us to read signability from a distance, and it doesn’t always look like money well allocated, but I appreciate that I don’t know anything while the process is unfolding so I am just doing pure speculation. Now that the full draft is finalized, it is going to really come down to is Dante Nori is good or not and not whether they squeezed a late high school pick out of it.
Which speaking of high school, the rule changes have really choked the life out of drafting high schoolers. Whether it is bonus pools in relation to NIL money, condensed minor league teams and roster, or other factors that change the risk/reward scale, drafting high schoolers as a real plan is mostly on life support. The first 11 rounds represent the area where drafted players are considered highly likely to sign. In the first 11 rounds there were 26 high school pitchers taken, and 8 (4 each) were selected by the Guardians and Brewers with the Guardians having the largest pool and the Brewers likely cutting a big deal at pick 17. With the roster squeeze some teams are still willing (or extra willing) to take seniors on big discounts late on Day 2, while others like the Phillies opt to instead never sacrifice a pick on the altar of moving money around.
I do think there is less excitement this year than last year. Some of that is driven by what we know now about Miller and Klassen in particular, but there was a real feel that the Phillies got a steal with Miller, and there is the opposite of that feel ling now. Big fastballs are catnip for excitement and there is not an immediate Klassen here. I do think Carson DeMartini is the most exciting college performer since the Phillies took Ethan Wilson in 2021, and if they can get him more to where he was in 2023, he could be the guy we look back on with glee.