After taking two high school outfielders, the Phillies spent much of Day 2 of the draft leaving us asking the question of “Do they know they can take pitchers?”. The thing about the MLB draft is you can have a real dedicated strategy, like the year the Angels only took pitchers or they Yankees this year who started with 7 straight college pitchers, or because every pick is actually a small sample size decision create runs where the top player on your board for the price isn’t a pitcher. We don’t really know what the Phillies deal was, just that it took until round 8 for them to take an arm.
The Phillies certainly didn’t stick a consensus board and until we know bonuses (and picks tomorrow) we won’t really know the ebbs and flows of their day. Some picks felt very un-Phillies-like both positively and negatively, but they also took some players that if I had done real work ahead of the draft I would have had them on at least the long list of players I thought the Phillies might take.
I don’t know if I do or do not like their first pick of the day. I do like it more than my snap judgement and that is because everyone had John Spikerman listed as a plus plus speed, plus defensive center fielder with little power. The Phillies made sure he was actually listed as a shortstop, and even if my naïve read of his scouting report has him moving to second, I at least admire the boldness. I would wonder if they had forsaken power all together after the first three picks, but we know that isn’t true. Spikerman broke his hamate this spring and that can inhibit power, and maybe they think there is a bit more there that was hidden. He was a minor reach by BA and MLB’s rankings, but those rankings also have a lot of HSers who won’t be draft in the 50-150 range and that makes the ranking numbers much less indicative of where the player will go in the draft itself.
The Phillies followed up their string of 70 grade runners with Virigina Tech 3B Carson DeMartini a launch angle pull oriented left handed hitter with some hit tool concerns. I like the swing on the pick, and the Phillies are betting that another year removed from labrum surgery will get him down to poor contact rates of 2023 from his terrible rates from this year. Various places rate it from a good pick to a great pick. It is definitely not where the Phillies normally go, and I like the chance.
Not to short change Carter Mathison, but if he wasn’t in the run of hitters he would be a normal 5th round pick. Baseball Prospectus had an outlier positive opinion of him and his athleticism. It isn’t a big swing, but it isn’t entirely safe. Sort of reminds me of the Matt Vierling pick in the 5th round in 2018. While I get, Mathison I don’t entirely know what to make of Kodey Shojinaga. It seems pretty established he can hit, but I don’t know if he can catch, and there better be some power if he plays second. But he can hit, and they don’t take a lot of guys who can just hit. Joel Dragoo makes sense. I don’t know if it is good bet, but he absolutely crushed the ball this year and maybe there is something there, but it is a 7th round pick. Grouping the hitters together, I assume that Brady Day will be some underslot some, but he also has enough upside to give them something, and I expect him to fast track to the Threshers.
I think it is easy to say the Phillies have had success with stuff pitchers in the draft and that they should take more, and I definitely agree with that. When they finally got into that demographic I think they did really well. Both Camron Hill and Marcus Morgan might have been top 3 round talents had they had terrible 2024 seasons. Neither are safe in any way, but both have starting pitching profile and the Phillies will almost certainly start both of them. Morgan had more of the mess year and does not have any success like Hill had in the Cape Cod League, but it feels like he has the upside to be the real breakout prospect of this draft.
I really like the two pitchers the Phillies took and where they took them. I would feel better if they had taken another arm or two. I get if the player wasn’t there, and I get if they thought they could get the arms later and got the bats they liked early. I wouldn’t call the first two days safe, and I do think they took advantage of guys falling due to injuries or maybe bad college seasons. I also wouldn’t say I am over the moon about the hitters they did take. I don’t think it is a terrible draft, and I am more optimistic than I was yesterday, but I wouldn’t say it was a great draft with the information we have today.
Speaking of information, I have no good feel for how much money they have because those first two round bonuses feel like they could have a large range, and they did not take much money saving today, and maybe some guys that might need some extra money. We will know much more after round 11.