I wrote up brief highlights on the Phillies two picks at #27 and #63, but I wanted to combine some thoughts about how things stand so far.
When I went back and looked at the Phillies previous drafts, it was littered with not so great hitters. Aidan Miller looks like a steal, but he also might have been a top 10 to 15 pick without his injury. I do think they have made some good bets, Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Devin Saltiban look interesting, and Jordan Viars has turned things around (though maybe not quite to 3rd round pick 3 years later levels). A lot of those were taking a player who had fallen and was under valued. The Phillies second round pick, Griffin Burkholder sort of fits into that mold. He fell a bit based on public numeric rankings, but he went about where he expected to go.
Nori feels like a reach and if he isn’t a money saver, it feels like falling in love with a player because he looks good now. It is pick 27 and not much higher, but it feels like taking a safe college hitter without the track record of a safe college hitter. All of that is very judgmental and wishy washy, and not fully grounded in facts. It comes from not really trusting the Phillies to develop a hitter into their best version. They haven’t really had a hitting prospect pop up to something they weren’t when drafted since Logan O’Hoppe. They have succeeded in unearthing some gems like Bryan Rincon, but we have yet to really see them take something and make it greater. It is counter to the pitching side where we have seen them identify a player and improve on specific weaknesses.
The poster child of this is Justin Crawford, who has made improvements, but there are strong divisions on him that echo back to when they took him in the draft. In that same draft they took Emaarion Boyd, who now might be improving, but has largely but disappointing given his bonus. Here the Phillies went back to that plus plus speed center fielder well. I genuinely would like to be wrong, but this feels like a return to the more Ruben Amaro era drafting holes than I would like.
That is a whole pile of negativity, so I do want to pivot somewhat to the positive. I don’t think Nori is a bad player or prospect, I just think it was bad value if he isn’t a way to get value later in the draft. By all accounts he has great makeup, should be an asset defensively and might have a good feel for contact and approach (even if it doesn’t come with power).
Even with the other caveats, I am intrigued by Burkholder. There is hit tool risk, but I do feel like timing issues are a thing they have helped with. There is some power, speed, and defensive upside if they can pull it out of him. I think it is a decent risk in the second round.
I don’t know if we will get a definitive answer on slot money tomorrow, but I would like to see the Phillies go for some upside on the mound. As for where these two players slot in the org, they probably will be next to each other or very close, and I expect them to be lower than the Eduardo Tait, George Klassen, William Bergolla group, but higher than Bryan Rincon, Devin Saltiban, and Gabriel Rincones group, so like right on the top 10 cut off.