The Phillies system has a clear number 1 prospect, and for me a clear 2 and 3, followed by prospects 4, 5, and 6. There are some that disagree with the 3-6 order, but the top 6 are likely to universally be the top 6 on all lists. The gap to this group is a large one. While I feel confident in my groupings, I am sure there are many of you that would move a player up or down between these groups. The gaps previously have been noticeable, but they haven’t been large. This group is the plateau that is reached via all of those incremental steps. We have climbed up a good way above the bottom levels of the system, but you look out and there is a very skinny mountain ahead. This is where the Phillies’ challenge will be in building the system for long term stability, they need to expand the pool of prospects that are in the group above this, and in this group itself. Ideally, you would want to see this group running down to 20, and not to 11. The Phillies do have some legitimate (and some not legitimate) reasons for why it is the way it is, and right now in the majors it is not actively hurting them, but here is the spot where their overall weaknesses are exposed even if the individual players are good and interesting.
7. William Bergolla Jr., SS
Age: 10/20/04 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’11” 165lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| DSL (CPX) | 24 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 13.3% | 3.6% | .380 | .470 | .423 |
Role: Regular Shortstop
Risk: Extreme – Bergolla has played 24 regular season games of professional ball in the DSL. Those games may have looked good, but he is an eternity of adjustments and physical growth away.
Summary: The Phillies signed Bergolla as their big international signing in 2022. An injury delayed his professional debut until late July. He then played through the rest of the year helping DSL Phillies White to the league championship. Bergolla has a thinner frame, but has room to add some strength as he matures. This is probably the biggest concern with his future, as he did not hit for much power this summer and did not elevate much at all. He is never going to be a big slugger, but it is not unreasonable that he could get to a point where he is a 10-15 home run a year player. He will need to get at least close to that in order for pitchers to respect him enough at the plate.
The rest of Bergolla’s game is really solid and beyond his years. He is not necessarily a flashy shortstop, but he has enough range and arm for the position while playing calm and under control. He stands out at the plate with a simple solid left handed swing that currently is hitting line drives and solid ground balls, but has the mechanics to incorporate any strength he does add. He has a good feel for contact, and while DSL stats aren’t a real director of future success, Bergolla’s 3.6% K% was the lowest by a DSL hitter with at least 80 PAs since 2015. This is helped by an approach and pitch recognition that is beyond a player of his age and level. Bergolla is not afraid to work counts and has a great feel for the strike zone. He even sometimes has a mini version of the Juan Soto stare on balls.
If Bergolla can be a plus shortstop and maintain the contact/approach abilities, he has a really high floor for someone who just turned 18. If he had the frame and bat speed where you could project average or plus power he might be a star, but the power projection is enough of a worry to really temper expectations.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have already brought Bergolla stateside this year for the High Performance Camp, so it would be extremely surprising if his year did not consist of Extended Spring Training and the Florida Coast League. Bergolla likely will be able to get away with making a large amount of contact driving a good batting average like Luis Garcia did in 2018, so we may not see the limits of his power output tested until he reaches A-ball.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
8. Simon Muzziotti, OF
Age: 12/27/98 (24)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2016 (Previous contract with Red Sox was voided)
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’1” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 44.4% | .000 | .111 | .000 |
| REA (AA) | 38 | 165 | 5 | 7 | 11.5% | 18.8% | .259 | .339 | .455 |
| LHV (AAA) | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 11.1% | 16.7% | .313 | .389 | .313 |
| PHI (MLB) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | .134 | .250 | .143 |
Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: High – If you wanted to say he is Medium risk to be a Second Division Regular or 4th outfielder it is totally fair. Muzziotti has played exactly 100 games in the last 3 seasons, so reading into anything he has done in that time is an exercise in reading small sample sizes the way you want to see them. His best projection has him as a good defensive center fielder who is probably about average with the bat.
Summary: Simon Muzziotti missed the 2020 season, because all minor leaguers missed the 2020 season, but he got stuck stateside, which prevented him from getting a work visa for 2021 until the end of the summer, and then in 2022 he had a brief trip to the majors then got hurt twice early in the year, finally played for 2 months, before then having a partial tear of a patellar tendon end his year in late August. If that felt like a lot, it is because it was and it means between rehab, level changes, the Arizona Fall League, and a brief VWL appearance he has played only 100 games in 2021 and 2022 combined.
For not playing very much, there are real improvements to point to. The Phillies spent the AFL in 2021 getting him to be more selective at the plate, which traded a few more strikeouts for a lot more walks and a drop in poor contact as Muzziotti stopped swinging at, and hitting, pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at. He has also gotten stronger and is impacting the ball a bit more. He is hitting the ball in the air more, and while he has had a drop in his line drive rate, the increase in balls in the air has come mostly from his very high ground ball rate. This led to 5 home runs in AA (only 1 in Reading) in just 46 games, which was more home runs than he had in his entire career prior to 2022. He is never going to be a big home run hitter, but he has good rotation and solid strength, meaning double digit home runs are not a pipe dream and he should get a decent number of doubles as he is actually able to get the ball into the gaps.
He is still a good center field defender (assuming he comes back fully healthy from the knee injury) and has been a willing, if undisciplined, base runner. If the batting improvements are real, he has the sneaky chance to be a solid player. Given Brandon Marsh’s place in Philly, there does not seem to be a long term place for him. If he can stay healthy and play, he will function as depth and could be a decent trade chip at the deadline or next season.
2023 Outlook: The best thing for Muzziotti will be for him to go to AAA and play a bunch of baseball games. Given the makeup of the Phillies roster, he is probably the primary injury backup if Brandon Marsh gets hurt, but is not really a fit on the roster with Marsh.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 10
9. Alex McFarlane, RHP
Age: 6/9/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 4th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 3 | 3 | 0-3 | 8.0 | 9.00 | 13.5 | 1.1 | 8.3% | 33.3% |
Role: Infuriating #3 Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: High – McFarlane has a long college track record of not pitching well as a starter, and not getting results equal to his stuff. The Phillies have had a good track record of improving this type of pitcher, so his plight is slightly different than their hitter draftees.
Summary: It is easy to look at McFarlane when the Phillies drafted him and see another Griff McGarry. McFarlane does not have McGarry’s extreme control issues, but he also does not have the track record as a starting pitcher. McGarry had a good run in the NCAA tournament before the draft, and McFarlane had a good 5 appearances in the Cape Cod League. Both have big spin on all of their pitches and can unleash some highlight reel stuff. That is where the comparison mostly ends. McGarry came out and looked elite in starts that stretched up to hi-A and McFarlane made 3 very ordinary statistical appearances for Clearwater.
The fastball is another derivation. McFarlane averages in the mid 90s and got up to 98 in the pros, and 99 in college. Both his 4-seam fastball and sinker averaged about 2700 RPM in his pro debut, but his 4-seamer has more run and sink than the riding fastballs of the Phillies top pitching prospects. His sinker looks really nasty on video, with strong armside run, but the movement profile means it tends to break into the hitting path more than an elite fastball. He does back it up with some good secondary pitches with his changeup picking up where the fastball leaves off with less fade and run, and more strong boring action down and armside. He can run it off the plate to lefties and down to righties, and it is a true plus pitch and it might be his out pitch long term. He has a high spin sweeping slider that flashes plus potential as well. He can throw all of his pitches around the strike zone, but he lacks command of them.
McFarlane is sort of the opposite of Rincones, in that he is a development case we have seen from the Phillies before. He doesn’t have the exact attributes of Nola or Suarez, but the Phillies have molded sinker heavy pitchers just as much as they have the ones with high spin rise ball fastballs. If you heard he added a cutter to play off the slider and sinker, it would not surprise you. He has not yet made those changes though, and he still remains a player with an non-ideal arsenal that does not seem to get the results to match the look.
2023 Outlook: McFarlane is a high round pick who started games in a major conference, it would be a surprise to not see him at Jersey Shore to start the year. Given the current shape of his arsenal, it will be an early watch point to see what changes the Phillies make to optimize it over time.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
10. Andrew Baker, RHP
Age: 3/24/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 11th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 40 | 0 | 3-1 | 43.2 | 4.74 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 12.1% | 30.8% |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 0 | 1-0 | 10.2 | 0.84 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 13.5% | 29.7% |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – It is less of a stretch to think about Baker consistently throwing strikes than it used to be. His fastball and curveball are major league ready right now, and he could be ready very soon.
Summary: The Phillies did not carry over much bonus pool to day 3 of the 2021 draft, so Baker at $200,000 was their biggest expenditure. Not the most experienced of pitchers, he showed big stuff in college, but also big control issues. It was the same in Clearwater last year, when he was up to 99 but walked more than he struck out. The beginning of 2022 was a lot of the same. Over the first 3 months, in his first 23 appearances, Baker went 22.2 IP 23 H 17 ER 18 BB 24 K. He kicked off July with another poor appearance before figuring something out in his delivery and running off a stretch of dominance. From that point on (including his 4 walks in his last two AA appearances), he went 30.2 IP 18 H 5 ER 11 BB 47 K.
It isn’t just the numbers with Baker, he backs it up with elite stuff. His fastball was sitting 97-99, touching up to 101, by the end of the year. It isn’t quite at the elite characteristics of Painter and McGarry, but has very good ride. His only secondary these days is a plus power curveball that sits 83-88. He has some definite similarities to Ken Giles, but his fastball is a bit more analytically friendly and his curveball is not quite where Giles’ slider was when he came up. The overall outcome of Baker’s development is not really a surprise in that it was likely to be a light switch going on rather than a linear growth. The surprise is that it happened so quickly.
2023 Outlook: Given he is off the 40 man roster and did not pitch very much in AA, Baker seems slated for Reading after his time in big league camp. The Phillies currently don’t have any obvious holes in the major league bullpen, but if Baker keeps on the path he ended 2022 on, he may force the Phillies hand at some point.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 35
11. Carlos De La Cruz, OF
Age: 10/6/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in August 2017
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’8” 210lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| JS (A+) | 64 | 241 | 10 | 5 | 7.9% | 31.1% | .266 | .344 | .463 |
| REA (AA) | 38 | 162 | 7 | 1 | 4.9% | 27.8% | .278 | .315 | .510 |
| SUR (AFL) | 17 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 5.9% | 39.7% | .307 | .368 | .516 |
Role: The Tallest Man On Your Major League Baseball Team
Risk: High – He probably won’t make enough contact to be on a major league baseball team, but if he does things get really interesting. The actual range of major league outcomes here is from “he is some sort of bench player who hits a big home run that you remember” to “he becomes a middle of the order, All-Star level slugger”.
Summary: Carlos De La Cruz is one of the more fascinating prospects the Phillies have had. Signed as an undrafted free agent out of high school off of a New York City travel team, De La Cruz showed intriguing skills in 2018 and 2019, but it was widely acknowledged that he still had a lot of development to go. Then the pandemic hit, and De La Cruz was in New York City under lockdowns turning a lost year into a complete disaster. His 2021 season looked like a player who spent most of the last year unable to do anything. The Phillies even left him exposed to the minor league Rule 5 draft after the season. He looked like the old De La Cruz in 2022. He had to earn his playing time as he rebuilt his prospect stature, and went from one of the BlueClaws’ best players to a promotion to Reading and then a trip to the Arizona Fall League.
The player is even more fascinating than the story. De La Cruz is listed at a very lanky 6’8”, and he has filled that out since signing, but he also is likely taller than his listed height. He is a plus runner, who right now can show you a competent center field. He primarily has played the corners, but the Phillies have also worked him in at first base which opens up some long term flexibility, and if he makes it work, a very large target for throws. At the plate, De La Cruz looks like he is swinging a novelty bat and has great bat speed, and when combined with his long levers he has plus plus raw power. Those long levers do lead to a lot of swing and miss. His pitch recognition and approach are improving, but they are still well below major league caliber. Given his raw power, you probably want him elevating the ball a bit more, but that likely will improve as he swings at better pitches.
The most likely outcome is that De La Cruz stalls out in AA or AAA, unable to make enough contact for a major league role. Maybe he makes just enough contact that he is sort of a 5th/OFer who can play first in a pinch who hits the occasional big home run. However, the underlying skills and athleticism means that any hit tool improvements are going to be magnified. It is a very low chance he becomes a star, but that 99th percentile outcome might be that he is a superstar.
2023 Outlook: De La Cruz will likely go to Reading, where he should get plenty of at bats in a favorable ballpark. He is a minor league free agent after the season, so a stumble could see him embark on a team to team odyssey of organizations trying to unlock him, but a good year could force the Phillies’ hand to put him on the 40 man roster and figure out if he has a future role in the org.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR