When you have an ascendent talent like Andrew Painter, it tends to set a standard that others around cannot obtain. Mick Abel has not broken out in the way that Painter has, and McGarry cannot paint the corners the way that Painter can. For both, that is ok, because there are maybe two other pitching prospects in baseball that enter the conversation when you talk about Painter. Mick Abel has not broken out in a big way, but his steady development makes him one of the better first round picks in the 2020 draft. McGarry is a lesson in taking risks and knowing what traits make a good pitcher. He may never be the high end starter that his stuff portends, but he looks to be a high end contributor and one of the best day 2 picks in the 2021 draft. When combined with Painter, this trio gives the Phillies one of the best groups of pitching prospects in baseball. Outside of the general excitement around that fact, it has allowed the Phillies to position their franchise in a way that maximizes its resources going forward.
2. Mick Abel, RHP
Age: 8/18/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 18 | 7-8 | 85.1 | 4.01 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 10.2% | 27.7% |
| REA (AA) | 5 | 5 | 1-3 | 23.0 | 3.52 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 12.1% | 27.3% |
Role: #2/#3 Starting Pitcher
Risk: High – Abel did not have any real stumbles, but he also didn’t have any big leaps. He has good stuff, but it isn’t overwhelming enough to not need polish. He is likely on the low end of the risk scale for a pitcher along his level of development, but there is still a gap to the majors. Throwing over 100 innings and making 23 starts is a very positive durability development.
Summary: The Phillies were very cautious with Abel in his first year in 2021, shutting him down early after an arm injury, causing him to log only 44.2 innings. While there were some definite ups and downs statistically for Abel in 2022, he took the ball once a week from April 9 until September 17, with the exception of a week off for the South Atlantic League All-Star game. He threw 108.1 innings on the season, and he topped 100 pitches twice in mid-July before they backed off of him a bit. Given his frame and ability to handle the workload, the Phillies are definitely pushing him in a way that is more workhorse than a max effort 5-6 inning arm.
Abel shows the arsenal for starting as well. He mostly sits 94-97 with his fastball, but he will get to 98 and 99. It has good ride and spin, though not quite at the level of Painter or McGarry, and it is a real bat misser at the top of the zone. He did lose some velocity deeper into starts in the later season outings I checked in on, but it was much less than what he did in 2021. Abel’s primary pitch as an amateur and as a pro is his slider. The Phillies took what had been a plus pitch and moved it into more of a sweeper. The pitch is a touch slower than what he threw in 2021, but it works a bit better overall with his arsenal. It is at least a plus pitch, but with some consistency and a touch more command it could be a plus plus weapon for him. His changeup lacks consistency, but he does show that he has some feel for it, and with work it could be a solid third pitch. He has not thrown his curveball as much this season, but it sits just below his slider velocity wise with much more drop. He will sometimes bleed it into the slider, but when he gets on top of it, he will show you a plus one. It probably settles in more average to above average than plus, and will likely function more to play off of the slider and give hitters a different look.
Abel has some definite young pitcher areas of improvement. He has a tendency to nibble and fish for chases with his slider. This can lead to deep pitch counts and advantageous situations for hitters. His stuff is not quite dynamic enough to throw command to the wind and just aim down the middle, but he will need to work on establishing his slider for strikes. He also has a tendency to not use the full zone, and he has innings where he gets too predictable. This is where getting the changeup and curveball in a place where they offer theoretical expansion of what the hitter has to defend will be important. Alternatively, if he can get the fastball command to a place where he can consistently work the edges of the zone, it will allow him to play with expanding off of it with the slider more.
There is definitely some worry that you look at Abel and see a mid rotation arm, and not a front line arm. While 2022 had some improvements, it was mostly a consolidation and durability proving year. Abel is only 21, and he had success at AA, so he is definitely well ahead of where he should be, he just isn’t on the rocket ship that Painter is on, and that is ok. To get into that #2 or better starting pitching realm, he is going to need to make some sort of unexpected growth, whether that is the fastball ticking up a bit more in velocity, some changeup growth, or more command and consistency, he is going to need to take some sort of next step to be a front line arm. The good news is that while we don’t really have the evidence to prove that leap is coming, he has enough feel for pitching and is young enough that it is not unreasonable that one of those things happens in the next few years. If it doesn’t happen, it is not hard to see him progressing as a high end mid rotation arm that shoulders a bunch of innings a year, and in this day and age of pitching, that is also a very valuable outcome.
2023 Outlook: Abel ended the year in AA, and while there has been posturing that he is not that far from a major league role, he is behind Painter and McGarry in terms of readiness and is not really major league ready. In AA he should get plenty of innings and get on a normal rotation cadence. If he doesn’t struggle, he should end the year in AAA and be ready to enter 2024 in contention for a major league rotation spot.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 1
3. Griff McGarry, RHP
Age: 6/8/99 (23)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 12 | 12 | 3-3 | 46.2 | 3.86 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 12.3% | 42.1% |
| REA (AA) | 8 | 7 | 1-3 | 32.2 | 2.20 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 15.2% | 29.5% |
| LHV (AAA) | 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 8.0 | 9.00 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 24.3% | 24.3% |
Role: #2 Starter Rate Stats with #3 Starter Total Value
Risk: High – McGarry made large strides with his control after signing, and once again in 2022, though a late season blister issue inflated his numbers. His stuff could get outs in the majors now, but he needs to just get his stuff in the zone and attack hitters with it. He is almost certainly never going to be an efficient pitcher, but if he can be a per inning front line arm in a rotation or bullpen he is going to be an impact contributor.
Summary: McGarry was trending in the right direction when the Phillies took him in the 5th round of the 2021 draft, and he was dominant in his pro-debut, vaulting him well up lists. His 2022 season got off to a slow start, as he had to ramp up in Jersey Shore after a Spring Training oblique injury. It didn’t slow down his stuff or results, but it did put him behind on total innings for the year. It wasn’t long before he was dominating A-ball. He immediately started having some blister issues that affected his ability to throw his slider in certain appearances. With the Phillies in the playoff push in September, they opted to see if McGarry could help out of the bullpen. The combination of blister and role change saw his command fall apart in AAA, and ultimately the Phillies went in other directions.
Andrew Painter may be the best pitching prospect in the system, but McGarry may have the title of the best individual pitches. McGarry is not a tall man, but he gets very good extension on his pitches, particularly his fastball, and this involves him coming in low and flat to the plate. His fastball then comes out with high spin rates and good spin direction at a low angle of attack with great late explosive rise. He also happens to sit 94-98 and will show a 99 and 100. The pitch is devastating at the top of the zone where hitters have no chance of getting under it, and because of the flat angle it plays well, missing bats even in the heart of the zone. He will also throw a 2-seam variety in the same velocity range that is more of a change of pace. In somewhat typical Phillies fashion they elongated the slider to have more of a sweeper shape and then added a new cutter behind it. Both are plus pitches that might play up above that if he commands them better. He has a curveball as well, and it has shown plus in the past but has faded in usage. He has inconsistent use of a changeup, but he will throw some that make you think there is a good one in there as well. All told it is a plus plus fastball, two at least plus offspeed pitches, and two more competitive pitches. It is a formidable arsenal.
The problem for McGarry has been command. He will have innings where he will just pound the zone, and others where he will walk two batters on 4-5 pitches and have to work his way out of trouble. He does do a good job of not letting things spiral, but it does drive up his pitch count. He can struggle to repeat his delivery at times, but his issues look almost as much approach as they do physical. He does not have fine command, but he does seem to spend a lot of time painting the corners rather than just letting his stuff work for him in the strike zone. He also has the tendency to use his offspeed pitches to go fishing for chases a bit too much. His sweeper is going to be a weapon off the plate, but he will need to be in and around the strike zone a lot more and not go chasing, because he also has a tendency to overthrow when he does it.
Without another leap, McGarry is always going to be a bit inefficient, throwing a few too many balls than you would like. The Phillies want to bulk him up enough to really handle a full season workload, but even with that he is probably going to be more of a 5-6 inning arm than a workhorse like Painter or Abel. It is certainly more of the modern version of a starting pitcher, but when combined with the risk that he doesn’t refine his command, it is easy to see why the bullpen role hovers over him. He is only entering his second full pro season so any bullpen talk as a permanent role is wildly premature, but it will hang over him until he proves he can be a major league starter.
2023 Outlook: Andrew Painter seems to have jumped McGarry in terms of major league opportunity, but the Phillies almost certainly want McGarry to be the next arm up. He will go to Lehigh Valley to continue to polish his command and control. If by some miracle it gets to August and the Phillies have had a full and healthy rotation all year, there may be some conversation about getting McGarry in the bullpen just so he isn’t in AAA when the team could use his arm.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 6