Phillies 2023 Top Prospects – The Hitters 4-6

I have agonized about nothing more this offseason than the order of these three hitters. Ultimately, the order does not matter in terms of value, it is really all about the same. The reason it is agony is because it is close, but also it is because it is about the hardest thing to judge, the hit tool. It is at the core of all three players, will Crawford and Rojas ever have a good one, and is Lee’s good enough to make him a good major leaguer. Ultimately, I went with the guy I have the most confidence in their hit tool (Lee), then the player with the shortest track record of not hitting (Crawford), and then Rojas. This is entirely a personal preference. I am not telling you that you shouldn’t like Rojas more than the other two, that is for you to understand where your risk tolerances are. If you wondered during this process why I wrote and published the list the way I did, it is for these 3 hitters, because I did not want them to be lost in an ordinal list.

4. Hao-Yu Lee, 2B

Age: 2/3/03 (20)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in June 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 190lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
FCL (CPX)	2	8	1	1	25.0%	12.5%	.500	.625	1.167
CLW( (A-)	68	302	7	10	11.9%	18.9%	.283	.384	.415
JS (A+)	9	40	1	3	12.5%	22.5%	.257	.350	.486

Role: Solid Regular Infielder (probably at second base)
Risk: Medium – Lee has always hit. He hit as an amateur, he hit in his first taste of pro ball, and he hit in 2022. The Phillies have played him all over the infield, but he is probably a second baseman and just a solid one. While he has hit, there is certainly a valid question about his power output and whether it also ends up more below average than solid, and the whole package just comes up a bit short in total value.
Summary: Lee was one of the best hitters in his age group as an amateur, but some injuries caused him to lose some luster, with him eventually signing with the Phillies during the summer of 2021. He is a hitting and baseball nut, with multiple members of the Phillies describing either having to keep him from working in the cage or taking too much BP or him requesting to do more of them. It shows on the field, as he was one of only a handful of teenagers to put up 300 PAs with a BB%>10% and K%<20%, joining in top overall lines with top prospects from other organizations like Edgar Quero (LAA), Evan Carter (TEX), and Adael Amador (COL).

Lee has a simple, easy right-handed swing and a good approach and pitch recognition, which allows him to consistently get the bat on the ball. He did not post the highest high end exit velocities for Clearwater (90th percentile EV of 101.5mph), but posted solid average exit velocities. He also did not see the drop off that some players do, maintaining a high level of impact for most of his balls in play. He probably puts a few too many balls on the ground, but he maintains a good line drive rate which should drive a decent batting average. Looking at contact data, he does not show any weaknesses to any pitch types and sees a much lower than average increase in his whiff percentages when facing high velocity fastballs and high spin breaking balls. He is going to need to hit the ball a bit harder as he ages, but given his feel for contact, approach, and pitch recognition, it is likely he will do a good job in maximizing his power output.

Defensively, the Phillies have moved Lee around the infield, but he does not really have the range or arm for shortstop, and the arm is suspect at third base as well. He should be able to play a solid second base, but is unlikely to ever be a real asset there. The defensive position will put pressure on the bat, and that is where the real sort of risk is with Lee. There is a high probability, for a player of Lee’s age and experience, that Lee makes enough contact. He is going to need to have that contact come with probably 15-20 home runs a year, and a good amount of line drive doubles as well, in order to be an above average player. There is a chance he can be solid, but not elite, across all three triple slash categories, and that is probably good enough to be a first division regular and occasional all-star.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies sent Lee to Jersey Shore to end the year. He is likely to feel the power suppression that is that ballpark to right handed batters, but given his polish he should push his way west to Reading by sometime over the summer.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 12

5. Justin Crawford, OF

Age: 1/13/04 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 1st Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
FCL (CPX)	11	43	0	8	11.6%	14.0%	.297	.395	.351
CLW( (A-)	5	23	0	2	8.7%	39.1%	.143	.217	.143

Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: Extreme – Crawford’s risk comes in two forms. The first is the obvious, he is 19 years old, not physically mature, and a long way of development away from the majors. The other is that he does not make consistent hard or impactful contact with the ball.
Summary: The Phillies have spent a few years showing they struggle to develop hitters and succeed with pitchers, particularly high school arms. They decided to take the challenge of correcting that fully on, by going with a long term project of a pick. Crawford comes from good bloodlines, but even if he wasn’t Carl Crawford’s son there is obvious talent to work with. He has a lanky frame that is unlikely to fill out for big time power, but should also maintain his athleticism as he fills out. That is important because he is at least a plus plus runner who should be a plus center field defender in the long term. His swing looks good, and he can get the bat on the ball. He just does not have much impact behind the swing and does not seem to be adept at finding his pitches to drive and then doing damage on them.

There is not really a role for a slap and run hitter in the modern game, especially not from a player taken with the 17th pick in the draft. This does not mean that Crawford is going to need to become a 20+ home run hitter to have value to a major league team. He is going to need to at least be able to hit hard line drives so that he can use his legs to get extra bases in the gaps. Ideally though, you want to take a projectable bodied teenager with elite athleticism and get a plus bat at a premium position out of it. Crawford has only played in 16 professional games, and the Phillies have made some distinct changes in their hitting development personnel, so this is not a fated poor outcome.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies will likely send Crawford back to the Threshers where he should spend most of the season. They have given late season promotions to their top prospects, so he could end the year in Jersey Shore. We might not see the power numbers yet, but it would be good to see him start to show the underlying swing characteristics to allow him to utilize his strength as he grows into it.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A

6. Johan Rojas

Age: 8/14/00 (22)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 165lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
JS (A+)	70	292	3	33	7.2%	18.8%	.230	.287	.325
REA (AA)	60	264	4	29	8.0%	16.7%	.260	.333	.387
SUR (AFL)	12	52	0	13	15.4%	15.4%	.310	.423	.452

Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: High – Rojas swings at and makes poor contact on a bunch of pitches he shouldn’t, and he does not swing at some pitches he should. He has improved in this area, but his pitch recognition and approach still are not where they need to be. He also hits the ball on the ground a bit too much, which is exacerbated by making contact with pitches he should not be swinging at. If he does not make improvements, he is likely only ever going to be a speed and defense outfielder. There are a whole lot of other great things going on with Rojas, but the hit tool not being where it needs to be is at the core of his profile.
Summary: The Phillies signed Rojas as an interesting bat for $10,000 to fill out their DSL teams in 2018, and he quickly blossomed into a top prospect within a year and a half. He looks the part physically and has most of the scouting report boxes checked. He also is one of the funnest players to watch play, because he goes all out on the field and seems to be having a great time doing it. Those around him rave about his worth ethic and desire to learn and improve.

And the tools are very good. He has at least plus plus speed, possibly 80 grade. He uses it to be a plus plus defensive center fielder with great jumps and range for days. On the bases he is both smart and aggressive, not afraid to always be running, but also getting great jumps and reads. It isn’t just the steals, as he will aggressively take extra bases when on base or turn singles into doubles if the outfielder hesitates. He has good bat speed at the plate, generating some high end exit velocities and overall plus raw power. He also isn’t just selling out for power, as he has a good feel for getting the bat on the baseball. His overall approach in how we usually think about it isn’t bad, he is an aggressive hitter, but he is not a hacker, and he does seem to know what he should be doing.

The problem has been that he does not seem to be recognizing pitches and getting to the place where he is attacking the right pitches in the right places. If he is off on a swing, he often has the ability to get the bat on the ball and foul it off or put it in play. Unfortunately, most of what he is putting in play is ground balls and non-dangerous fly balls. This is also not a new problem, nor is it a problem the Phillies haven’t been trying to solve for the last two years. This year, as a member of the 40 man roster, he will be in big league camp and so the big league staff will get to work with him and the minor league staff to come up with a plan. Historically, the Phillies have not been good at achieving gains in this area (see the rest of this top 50), which is also why they reorganized their hitting dev this year. That is by no means an answer by itself, but it is an acknowledgement that they are not succeeding here.

The Role and Risk above do hide a bit of the overall scope of potential outcomes for Rojas. There is probably a major league role he is not far off of that is being a team’s backup center fielder, who comes in as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. There is an average regular ceiling, that may not be too terribly off of what Brandon Marsh was for them last season, that relies on him improving enough to bat 8th or 9th in a lineup. There is also an outcome above the average regular, also much like Marsh, where this all comes together and maybe either the average or on base aren’t peak, and the power is below potential, but he is an above average hitter with great defense and base running and that is a 4+ win player. It is one of the hardest things in baseball to improve, but Rojas does have the intangibles that are generally positive if you want to bet on someone overcoming difficulty.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies don’t really need Rojas in 2023 unless all of the center fielders get hurt again. He is on the 40 man roster, so you cannot rule out a scenario in September, or perhaps a potential postseason roster spot, where having a speed and defense bench player would provide value. Rojas is on the 40 man roster, so his timer is also now ticking. It makes the most sense for the Phillies and Rojas for him to play as much as possible in 2023, so a start in Reading with a promotion at least for the end of the Lehigh Valley season seems like the plan.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 4