When someone offers something risky we expect the other side of the equation to be some sort of reward. The same is true in baseball, if I say a prospect is at an extreme or high risk of not achieving their ceiling, it is much easier to accept that risk if the payoff is a potential impact or at least everyday player. Risk is also not all equal. There is risk because a player has a linchpin skill that is failing to materialize after repeated effort, but there is risk because a player has not yet entered the dungeon full of traps. We know there will be pitfalls with these players, because there are always pitfalls, but they have not yet had the floor disappear below them. So do not ignore the dangers ahead, but it is good to face the peril with an optimistic face and hope about what treasure might be at the end.
12. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Age: 3/3/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 3rd Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 225lbs
2022 Stats:
Did not play in a pro game in 2022
Role: Everyday Corner Outfielder or First Baseman
Risk: High – Rincones has some underlying stats that look good and a year in a non-major college conference. It isn’t nothing, but it is not enough to build a picture of a safe prospect. Regardless of which defensive position he ends up at, his bat will need to carry his future value.
Summary: Under Brian Barber, the Phillies have been all about drafting big tools. On the hitting side that has meant speed and exit velocity. Rincones was an exit velocity monster at Florida Atlantic last season, hitting .346/.451/.658 on the year. He has the frame and strength to back up the power numbers. Rincones was a junior college transfer, so he does not have much track record hitting against top end pitchers, and even his college experience wasn’t in a big conference. He had an injury this summer that the Phillies were cautious with, holding him out of professional games. A hurricane washed out most of the observable parts of Fall Instructs, so Rincones remains mostly a mystery. In the field, the Phillies and Rincones say he moves better than the reports, and that he should stay in an outfield corner, but there are some that look at his frame and athleticism and see first base or designated hitter as his final position.
Rincones is not Casey Martin or Baron Radcliff at the plate, but he does have some hit tool questions. The Phillies have historically not been great at identifying and then improving players like Rincones, which brings some major worries about the Phillies ability to maximize his potential. If the new Phillies development team can help him develop, he has the raw power to be a middle of the order masher that will make his final defensive position ultimately irrelevant.
2023 Outlook: Given that he played in Instructs and High Performance Camp, Rincones appears to be healthy and ready to go for the season. Unless he crashes and burns in the spring, he likely goes north to Jersey Shore where he should spend most of the season. Given his lack of experience vs top pitchers there is a chance there are struggles in his future.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
13. Emaarion Boyd, OF
Age: 8/22/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 11th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 177lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 9 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 13.9% | 13.9% | .345 | .472 | .379 |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .429 | .500 | .429 |
Role: Defense First Everyday Center Fielder
Risk: Extreme – Boyd is not physically at a level where he would survive the major leagues, and unlike some of his peers there is a worry his body won’t ever allow him to get there. On the positive side, he looked like he belonged in pro ball after signing.
Summary: The Phillies drafted Boyd in the 11th round and signed him to their second highest bonus in their class behind Justin Crawford. Boyd is a lanky athletic right handed hitter. His biggest asset is his speed which is at least plus plus and translates to plus plus defense in center field. At the plate, Boyd showed a solid approach and feel for contact in his pro debut. Right now that contact comes with little impact, with Boyd currently lacking strength. Boyd has a narrow frame, and while he should put on strength going forward, it is unlikely that he will ever add enough to be a power threat.
Boyd’s defensive ceiling gives him a high floor to build upon, but it is not a high enough floor to be a major leaguer, as high end speedsters before him like Roman Quinn, Billy Hamilton, and Jarrod Dyson have struggled to be everyday players and in some cases not even bench bats. In order for Boyd to be a good prospect, he will need to be an at least minimal offensive threat. While he will never be a huge home run hitter, it will be important that he is putting the ball for solid line drive contact and not just slapping and running.
2023 Outlook: Boyd looked polished enough in his debut that the Phillies sent him to Clearwater after the FCL season ended. He should return to the Threshers and will likely spend all or most of the season in Florida.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
14. Jaydenn Estanista, RHP
Age: 10/3/01 (21)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in November 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 180lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 12 | 5 | 3-0 | 31.1 | 2.01 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 13.6% | 29.7% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter / 7th/8th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Estinista is more of a dream or an idea than an actually formed prospect. It is a really nice dream, but when you strip back the illusion it is a pitcher with a good fastball, and not much else yet.
Summary: Estanista was signed by the Phillies as an 18 year old out of Curacao in November of 2019, meaning he would not actually make his pro debut until he was 19 in the summer of 2021. He showed enough promise that the Phillies brought him stateside in 2022. Now 21, with 30+ innings of experience stateside, it is obvious what the Phillies find intriguing about Estanista. He has a projectable 6’3” frame that he is starting to fill out, but he has room for more. His delivery is fairly athletic and he comes from a high three quarter delivery. His fastball is the thing that immediately jumps out, it sits 93 to 96, touching 97, with good ride. He doesn’t really command it yet, but he can throw it for strikes and is showing some ability to work the top and bottom of the zone. He is still fairly new to pitching and the secondary pitches show it. He has some feel for spin, but he has a tendency to slow his arm and cast the curveball. They introduced a mid to high 80s slider/cutter hybrid pitch late in the season that he showed some promise with. He has worked on a changeup, but has not really used it in games. Estanista is definitely not a finished product, and is behind some of the other complex level breakout arms of the past like Adonis Medina or Franklyn Kilome were at the same point in their careers. That said, he has the fastball characteristics that those two arms did not, and knowing what we know now, that makes him very interesting. Ideally you would like to have this report attached to an 18 or 19 year old arm, but Estanista’s lack of experience makes his developmental path much like a young arm, because his struggles are due to development that has not yet happened as opposed to development that has failed. The Phillies will have every reason to keep Estanista in a rotation to build reps, and given his age and signing timeline, they may cause them to accelerate his level if he shows success in Clearwater. Given the current lack of a usable changeup, he has a high risk of being a reliever in the long term, but that is a conversation to revisit in a couple of years.
2023 Outlook: Estanista may be raw, but he is 21 and his Rule 5 clock is ticking. The Phillies may have to manage his innings, but they are going to need to start him with Clearwater and push him to Jersey Shore if his fastball allows him to manage Low-A.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
15. Enrique Segura, RHP
Age: 12/19/04 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| DSL (CPX) | 13 | 8 | 5-1 | 42.2 | 2.32 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 12.3% | 21.8% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – It is a sign of the times that we have as much on Segura as we do given it has barely been a year since he has signed, and he has only pitched in games in the Dominican Summer League. He has an eternity between him and any major league role.
Summary: For only getting $80,000 to sign in January 2022, Segura was immediately generating some buzz, making Baseball America’s highlights of the Phillies signing class before appearing in a DSL game. Segura has a projectable 6’3” frame with long limbs. His delivery is very reminiscent of Aaron Nola, with a high leg lift and a whippy arm action. The delivery is not the only place of comparison to Nola. Segura’s fastball sits 92-94 with some 95s (and according to Steve Potter touched up to 97 in non-game action), and the pitch features good sink and run. Segura shows feel for a solid changeup in the mid 80s with solid fade, that he sells pretty well off the fastball, but it is less of a plus pitch, and more one to keep hitters honest. Segura throws a pair of breaking balls, the better of which is likely a two plane slider in the low 80s that does act a lot like Nola’s curveball in this comparison, and while it lacks consistency now, he will break off some that show true plus potential and the ability to be a bat misser. He also throws a good curveball in the 78-81 mph range that blends into the slider range, but has more vertical movement than the slider. He does have them blend a bit, but they should be two distinct pitches to keep hitters off balance. Segura shows a feel for commanding his pitches, throwing his fastball to both corners down and throwing the breaking balls for strikes and breaking them off the plate for misses. He does miss armside with his fastball and can overthrow down and gloveside.
The lack of a dominating fastball means that Segura’s slider will need to actualize into a bat missing plus pitch. The impressive feel for a complete starter’s arsenal at his age makes Segura very intriguing and might have him moving quicker than your prototypical teenage arm. For now, he should be stateside to open the season, having already come over for the Phillies High Performance Camp.
2023 Outlook: As an 18 year old arm, it is hard to see Segura seeing game action before the start of the FCL season. If he performs well there, maybe he gets a late season bump to Clearwater after the FCL season ends.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
16. Nikau Pouaka-Grego, 2B
Age: 9/13/04 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’10” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 35 | 125 | 3 | 2 | 12.8% | 12.8% | .301 | .424 | .466 |
Role: Everyday Infielder, Probably at Second
Risk: Extreme – Pouaka-Grego had about as good a debut as a 17 year old could have in the FCL. He looks like he has a chance to really hit. The real question will be how much power can he actually hit for, and will it be enough for whichever position he ends up at defensively.
Summary: For the second year in a row the Phillies signed an international second baseman and sent them directly to the Florida Coast League. Pouaka-Grego has less physicality and track record than Hao Yu Lee, but he was also a year younger. One of just a handful of 17 year olds in a stateside complex, he was also one of the best hitters in the Florida Coast League. He has shown a good feel for contact and approach at the plate. Pouaka-Grego hit for a surprising amount of power due to a quick swing, though he does not post the same high end exit velocities Lee did, but he does make hard enough contact to actualize much of the power he grows into. The biggest question for Pouaka-Grego is his position. He is still moving around the infield and probably is best fit at second base, but he is not a good defender there yet. If he has to move off of the infield dirt, his bat would need to take a large step forward to play in an outfield corner.
Normally, Pouaka-Grego would be slated to join the Threshers as one of the few 18 year olds in full season ball. However, while playing for Adelaide this winter he suffered a knee injury that ended his winter season and seems possible to linger into the minor league season. Depending on the severity (has not been publicly stated), he might start his year with the FCL again before making his way to the Threshers later. If he does lose significant time to injury, it is a pity but he is young enough and will likely go to winter ball again, so he should be able to get back on track soon.
2023 Outlook: We don’t have clarity on Pouaka-Grego’s injury, so it is hard to project how his full 2023 season might look. Assuming he does come back over the summer, he probably gets some time with the Threshers with a look at making up at bats in the ABL (probably with Adelaide).
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
17. Rickardo Perez, C
Age: 12/4/03 (19)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2021
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’10” 172
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 30 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 7.5% | 14.0% | .349 | .387 | .398 |
Role: Everyday Catcher
Risk: Extreme – Perez has taken another step forward, but it is still a long way to go before he is a viable major league catcher. He should theoretically start to tap into the power more, but it will be a question until he does.
Summary: The Phillies made Perez one of their two big signings in 2021. After a solid year in the DSL, they brought him stateside where things got off to a bit of a rocky start with an ankle injury in Spring Training costing Perez much of the spring. He started more games at DH than he did at catcher for the FCL Phillies, but he is a good defender who should stick behind the plate. At the plate he has a simple left-handed swing that generates a good amount of solid contact. He has yet to tap into his raw power and should hit for more extra bases than his stat line would indicate. He has a good approach at the plate as well. Nothing truly is a big plus for Perez, but he is a catcher who does a lot of things well. There is certainly a worry that his power output is more like Rafael Marchan, who has yet to consistently drive the ball, but he is still very young and he elevates it more than Marchan did at his level. Given injuries and shorter seasons have kept him from logging a lot of time behind the plate, there is a good chance that 2023 could be an offensive struggle as the rigors of catching wear on Perez.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have a couple of low minors catchers they will likely want to get a look at in 2023, so Perez will likely see a decent amount of DH in addition to catching. That should allow the Phillies to not wear him down too much, but there is a chance that as a young catcher, the rigors of the season do suppress his numbers at points.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 27