Phillies 2023 Top Prospects – Intro & 41-50

Another year, another list. After an unexpected run through the postseason to the World Series, the way Phillies prospects viewed changes dramatically. No longer are prospects the future of the franchise on which hopes and dreams are solely placed. They are now pieces of a whole. Andrew Painter will have the weight of expectations upon him, but it won’t be to save the franchise, it will be to join with a group of winners and give the Phillies sustained success. A player like Dalton Guthrie, who is 27 years old and probably tops out as a good bench player, is no longer a disappointing piece of org filler, but a potential next man up to provide depth.

That does not mean that the picture is all rosy. Under a brilliant top of the system, there is not a solid foundation. A truncated draft (and development year) in 2020 leaves some missing depth. Some key draft misses leave some holes where a 2nd or 3rd round pick should be. In a system short on breakouts, there is a Logan O’Hoppe and Ben Brown empty spot where a NL Championship banner now hangs. The Phillies have gotten much better at pitching acquisition and development, but the hitting side has faltered at every step. Their high bonus international signings have not panned out, and a system that once generated big arms from unheralded arms has seen that stream mostly dry up. The Phillies have thrown resources at trying to build this back up, laying groundwork at the lowest levels while they change out the top level decision makers. They now have their pieces all in place and it will be once again time for a new regime to see if they can make improvements where no group has in over a decade.

I may have forced the list number to 50 again this year, but it was certainly threatened at times of ending up short of that. I am doing a totally different method for releasing the list this year. Rather than groups of 10 with cutoffs, it will be in tiers of prospects. This first one happens to be 10 players, but of the 8 groups I can hint that the last three will be 3 players, then 2, and then just 1. I want to write more where there is room to write more and also not create arbitrary dividing lines. There are no OFPs or grades associated with each group because I am not a scout and so I take not having to put a number to my work as having more nuance and squishiness to work with. That said, within each of these groups the ordering is my preference, but I don’t have a huge gap between them and it is subject to some of my biases.

Overall the methodology of this list is that it is based on conversations I have had with people in and around the game, my own looks at players (all video, but more levels of video than ever before), and then stats both of the traditional and advanced variety, when available. I left some objectivity behind when it comes to viewing growth in the system. I am more bullish on players I think can hit, because I don’t fully trust the Phillies to bring that out of players. I also am more bullish on pitchers knowing what types of attributes the Phillies target and maximizing in development. There will always be surprises, but we have to take into account outside factors.

All the normal features are back again. I use role as an optimistic outcome and not a percentile or OFP, and that outcome depends on the risk because not every player’s probability curve looks the same. At the end of the day, I want you all to be able to read this list, take away the numbers, and feel informed enough to make your preference list.

So, 41 to 50.

The further you go down the list, the wider the groups of players get. This first group of players it would be easy to argue is artificial, it might belong as part of the one above or those off the list. There was just enough difference to not include the just missed, but I won’t argue if you think Kendall Simmons, Casey Martin, Cristian Hernandez, and others should be right here.

41. James McArthur, RHP

Age: 12/11/96 (26)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 12th Round of the 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’7” 230
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
REA( AA)	13	13	2-6	57.0	5.05	10.4	1.6	10.0%	25.0%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – McArthur has skills that should play well out of the bullpen when/if the Phillies move him into the role. He is coming off an injury that cut his season short, but the Phillies thought enough of him to keep him on the 40 man roster.
Summary: McArthur flashed enough stuff in 2021 to force the Phillies put him on the 40 man roster and keep him in the rotation. The result was a lot more strikeouts, but a season ending injury in late June and some stats that were not great. McArthur is a big righty with a mid 90s fastball and a pair of breaking balls. The lack of a changeup or equivalent pitch has made him very vulnerable to left handed batters, and McArthur posted a 14.8% BB% and 20.3% K% vs them last year as opposed to his 5.3% and 29.5% marks against righties. Given his arsenal and platoon splits, McArthur has long looked like a reliever, but the Phillies have yet to make that move. Unless the move to shorter outings allows his stuff to tick up greatly, he doesn’t have high leverage upside, but he has a decent chance at the plus fastball, plus offspeed middle reliever ceiling, with possibly a bit more with the second breaking ball involved.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have not said publicly whether McArthur will start or relieve, but given their rotation depth they should move him to the bullpen. Either way, he likely starts in AA as the Phillies figure out who can contribute to the team early. If he moves to the bullpen, he could make it to AAA fairly quickly.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 21

42. Alexeis Azuaje, 2B

Age: 4/24/02 (20)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 155lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
FCL (CPX)	5	17	0	1	0.0%	29.4%	.176	.176	.235
CLW (A-)	38	154	1	15	3.9%	27.9%	.285	.355	.380

Role: Second Division Second Baseman
Risk: Extreme – The approach might not get Azuaje out of A-ball. He does some things on the field well, but he is going to need to take a step forward at the plate.
Summary: It looks like 2021 was the year where Azuaje was starting a breakout, but 2022 was a rude return to reality. The second baseman posted a .355 on base percentage, but that was buoyed by 9 hit by pitches to just 6 walks. His 3.9% BB% and 27.9% K% in Clearwater set off alarm bells, as does a continued injury history that saw him play only 43 games. Azuaje is no longer moving all over the diamond and has settled in at second base, and while the shift rules should shift some of the offense-defense balance there, it has become a position with a high offensive bar. Azuaje posted good high end exit velocities with a 90th percentile of 101.9 putting him among the team’s leaders. However, his average exit velocity of 81.2 put him among the lowest on the team, hinting that while he was capable of scalding the ball he struggled to consistently get to that power. Azuaje won’t turn 21 until the end of April, but he is starting to make a real trend out of some fatal flaws of batting. If he can find a better approach and consistency at the plate, there might be starting upside for Azuaje.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have a jumble of infielders between Jersey Shore and Clearwater, and a good spring could see Azuaje carve out his share of at bats in Hi-A, but if he struggles it may be hard to break in. It is sort of a make or break year for Azuaje as he will need to show improvement at the plate.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 20

43. Michael Plassmeyer, LHP

Age: 11/5/96 (26)
Acquired: Traded to the Phillies by the Giants for C Austin Wynns on June 8, 2022
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 197lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
SAC (AAA)	11	10	2-6	46.1	7.38	9.7	2.9	11.3%	22.2%
LHV (AAA)	16	16	6-3	82.0	2.41	6.9	1.3	7.0%	24.8%
PHI (MLB)	2	0	0-1	7.1	3.68	11.1	1.2	3.4%	24.1%

Role: Up and Down Depth Starting Pitcher
Risk: Low – Plassmeyer is what he is and has already appeared in the majors for the Phillies in the role he projects to be in.
Summary: Plassmeyer has bounced around to four different orgs since being drafted in the 4th round of the 2018 draft by Seattle. He had a disaster start the 2022 season in the Giants organization before being traded to the Phillies. He was much better with the Phillies, returning to more of the player he had been in the past. Plassmeyer is a soft tossing lefty with good control and a three pitch mix to keep hitters off balance. The Phillies called him up late in the year to give them innings and he didn’t look terrible. Plassmeyer does not have any projection remaining, but is a depth starter for a major league team right now, and that has value.
2023 Outlook: Plassmeyer should be a mainstay of the IronPigs rotation and could get major league chances on double headers if there are injuries, or if the Phillies just need emergency bullpen depth.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: N/A

44. Jordi Martinez, LHP

Age: 7/18/00 (22)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2018
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 185lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	17	15	3-6	72.0	4.25	9.9	0.8	7.5%	20.8%
JS (A+)	2	2	0-1	6.2	4.05	12.2	0.0	3.2%	22.6%

Role: Back End Starter/Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Martinez pitched 78.2 ok innings in 2022 as a starter at two A-ball stops. His profile is still reliant either on some offspeed projection in a rotation or some better results in short stints out of a bullpen.
Summary: Martinez was a trendy sleeper going into the pandemic missed season, and then had an injury 10 games into 2021 that had him fall off prospect maps. Martinez ended up pitching most of the 2022 season and, despite a just ok ERA, showed a lot of promising signs. Martinez’s velocity was back up to where it was prior to the injury, averaging 93 mph in Clearwater and peaking at 97. He throws two distinct fastballs and backs them up with a solid changeup and slider. Martinez can be a bit too hittable at times, but he throws a good amount of strikes and for the most part suppresses hard contact by keeping the ball out of the air.

He is still young enough that the Phillies can give him the 2023 season as a starter in Jersey Shore, but his velocity from the left side gives him intriguing reliever fall back.
2023 Outlook: Martinez ended 2022 in the BlueClaws rotation, and there is no reason to think that isn’t his first stop in 2023.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 38

45. Eduar Segovia, RHP

Age: 1/10/01 (22)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in May 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 180lbs
2022 Stats:

Did Not Pitch in 2022

Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – There is a very straightforward projection of Segovia’s stuff as a reliever, but that was before the injury. He will need to show that the stuff is intact and that he can throw strikes at a reasonable rate.
Summary: Segovia was trending as a good pitching prospect before a shoulder injury in his last start of 2021 cost him the 2022 season. Segovia is an undersized righty, which has long had people projecting his future as in the bullpen. The base of Segovia’s profile is a sinking fastball that sits 92-95, topping out at 97, and plus low-80s slider with heavy vertical break. During the 2021 season he started to work in a splitter to give him a third pitch. Control has been a problem for Segovia at each level, and he was homer prone in 2021 as well.

Everything says that Segovia should be a reliever going forward, but given the missed time it would not be surprising if the Phillies had him start for some of the season in order to build innings and get work in. Segovia was throwing rehab innings at the end of last season, so he should be pitching by early in the 2023 season. The big question given the seriousness of shoulder injuries, is what Segovia’s stuff and durability look like now.
2023 Outlook: Segovia has been throwing, so it is reasonable to think he should break camp with a full season team. It would not be surprising to see him in Jersey Shore to start, or at least shortly into the season. Coming off the injury, the Phillies are likely to manage his innings for the season.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 32

46. Bryan Rincon, SS

Age: 2/8/04 (18)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 14th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’11” 185lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
FCL (CPX)	12	42	2	4	14.3%	16.7%	.176	.317	.412

Role: Second Division Shortstop
Risk: Extreme – There is not a lot of track record for Rincon and there is a long way to go between him and any major league role.
Summary: Rincon moved to the Pittsburgh area from Venezuela while in high school. The Phillies drafted the switch hitting shortstop in the 14th round and signed him for the full $125,000 bonus. He is a good defender at shortstop and a good runner. He has surprisingly decent power, and did not embarrass himself at the plate in his 12 games in the FCL. He is still more of a project than a prospect, but the glove gives a decent floor and base to build on.
2023 Outlook: There is an opportunity given the Phillies depth chart for Rincon to seize the Clearwater shortstop job, or at least a good amount of middle infield playing time. It is probably going to be more of a slow burn for Rincon, and so it would not be surprising to see him struggle at times.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A

47. Baron Radcliff, OF

Age: 2/9/99 (23)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2020 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 228lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
JS (A+)	104	408	17	6	14.7%	40.0%	.237	.350	.439

Role: Platoon Power-first 4th Outfielder
Risk: High – Radcliff has demonstrated he can hit baseballs very, very hard, but he has yet to demonstrate that he can hit the ball consistently.
Summary: College players who strike out 40% of the time in A-ball in their second full season do not normally rate as notable prospects because their chances of hitting are extraordinarily low. Radcliff’s chances of hitting are extraordinarily low, but he has enough power to make that tiny percentage chance actually have a meaningful outcome. Radcliff spent the first 4 months of the season not making contact and not making hard contact, hitting just 8 home runs in that span. He exploded in August, hitting 8 home runs in 23 games, before then cooling off in September. Like many power hitters, he had large home/road splits with Jersey Shore still playing as an extreme pitchers park. Radcliff does have a good approach and pitch recognition, and has continued to get on base at a good clip, despite the struggles. If there is a place for optimism it is that Radcliff got the ball in the air at a much higher rate in 2022, and he is going to need to continue to trend in that extreme to maximize his contact when he makes it.

The model for Radcliff is Darick Hall, who also shares Radcliff’s inability to hit left-handed pitchers. If he can hang around the organization and make just enough contact, then there is a slight chance that there is a platoon power bat future for Radcliff, despite the stats indicating that he doesn’t really have a chance.
2023 Outlook: Radcliff will get a blessing and a curse in Reading. The park should allow him to put up big power numbers, but how he faces advanced pitching could make or break his career.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: UR

48. Matt Russell, RHP

Age: 3/28/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent with the Phillies in 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190 lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
JS (A+)	18	16	5-9	81.2	4.74	10.9	0.6	9.3%	18.3%

Role: Back End Starter/Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Russell isn’t a polished arm with a track record of success, and he struggled in A-ball. He also is very close to the borderline where his relief ceiling is more up and down arm than major league staple.
Summary: A year ago, Matt Russell looked like a steal of an undrafted free agent. He struck out a bunch of batters in his Clearwater cameo while showing good velocity and pitch characteristics. He was much more ordinary with Jersey Shore, failing to miss bats, walking too many batters, and overall looking too hittable. He also seemed to tire as the year went on and he was working a more typical starting pitcher’s workload. Russell still works 92-95 with his fastball with a bevy of secondary pitches, giving him a back end starter’s set of pitches. The Phillies are still short enough on starting pitching depth that they might give him another year in the rotation, but he is trending heavily towards the bullpen, but not with enough stuff to profile as an impact arm.
2023 Outlook: Russell either starts in Reading or moves up after the big arms are promoted. He will need to show better results either as a starter or make a successful bullpen transition.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 44

49. Aroon Escobar, 3B

Age: 1/1/05 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 180lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
DSL (CPX)	48	186	3	11	12.9%	14.0%	.238	.389	.343

Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Escobar has intriguing enough tools to dream on, but he isn’t a big standout. His potential outcome spread is immense with much of the outcomes being that he falls well short of projection, but that is also the case with the majority of 18 year olds.
Summary: Escobar was one of the 6 figure signings by the Phillies in January 2022 that was drawing some amount of buzz on signing day. He drove the ball early in the season, including a massive home run that did the rounds on social media. His power tailed off in July and August, but it was good to see that his walk and strikeout numbers stayed relatively stable. Escobar is already pretty solidly built for an 18 year old, and while he played all over the infield in 2022, his final position is likely his listed position of third base. He generates great bat speed which leads to good raw power. Escobar is more of an interesting collection of tools than a fully formed prospect at this point, but it is a good start.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies brought Escobar stateside for their spring high performance camp, which portends that he is slated for Extended Spring Training and then the Florida Coast League. Keeping his head above water will probably be the mark of a good season.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A

50. Matt Kroon, OF

Age: 12/5/96 (26)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 18th Round of the 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 195lbs
2022 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
REA (AA)	2	6	0	0	16.7%	50.0%	.000	.167	.000

Role: Infield/Outfield Bench Bat
Risk: High – Kroon had a short track record of success entering 2022, and then functionally missed the full year. There is not a big skill gap from him to Dalton Guthrie, much higher on this list, but there is a big certainty gap.
Summary: When the pandemic canceled the 2020 season, a bunch of players went away and came back looking like different players. Kroon went from a 4 corners org bat who was struggling in A ball to a legitimate center fielder who could play all 3 outfield positions, plus still be able to handle first and third. He then mashed at AA to end the year, after an injury caused him to get off to a slow start. He entered 2022 as a top priority to watch and see if 2021 was a fluke, and he looked great in Spring Training, hitting some home runs in big league camp and looking like a capable outfielder. Unfortunately 2 games into the AA season he suffered an ankle injury that cost him the rest of the season. 

Kroon likely lacks the impact to be an everyday regular, but you don’t need to squint to at least another Dalton Guthrie path (and Kroon and Guthrie were in similar situations entering 2022) where Kroon can reach the 40 man roster and be a MLB bench option at some point. He should be healthy to open the season, and if he can be the guy he looked to be to open 2022, then he could be on a fast track to AAA and right on the cusp of the majors.
2023 Outlook: Kroon will likely return to Reading to open the year, but it is not hard to see him in AAA by the middle of the summer as the Phillies hold onto less of their org depth. The big thing will be whether he can come back healthy and get back on track.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: UR