I already used the purgatory or waiting room analogy (or will later use it if you are coming to this late and starting from the beginning), so I won’t use it again. This group of 5 prospects are sort of a spectrum of the Phillies prospect experience. There is an older player who has broken out to be a contributor, a high level pick showing upside amidst struggle, an interesting pitcher who had a season lost to injury, a player on the cusp of the majors that seems to be falling back, and then a new pick who lacks the shine to ascend but has the history to have stumbled already. They are too good to be in the slog, but their star is not shooting through the sky. They also all have that tangible bit of hope you can pin to and say “this guy could be a major league contributor for a number of years” and be grasping a bit for optimism.
18. Dalton Guthrie, OF
Age: 12/23/95 (27)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 6th Round of the 2017 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 160lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LHV (AAA) | 92 | 374 | 10 | 21 | 6.4% | 19.5% | .302 | .363 | .476 |
| PHI (MLB) | 14 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 21.4% | 25.0% | .333 | .500 | .476 |
Role: Positionally Flexible Bench Bat
Risk: Low – Dalton Guthrie is heading into his age 27 season, can play multiple up the middle positions defensively, hit well in AAA, and did not embarrass himself in a major league cameo. He may not have a high ceiling, but it is a pretty safe floor.
Summary: The Phillies drafted Guthrie back in 2017 as a glove first shortstop who had fallen from being a projected 1st round pick in the draft because of an arm injury. Guthrie spent a bunch of seasons not hitting in the Phillies system (OPS of .634 in 2018, .646 in 2019, and .681 in AA in 2021), until they sent him to AAA in 2021 because they needed a body. He has hit ever since. He also is now more of a center and right fielder than a shortstop, but he can still play all over the infield if needed. Guthrie has a fairly simple swing and a good feel for contact. He does not have big raw power, but he can hit one out and get a decent amount of doubles. What drives his batting average and contact profile is a lot of line drives, and probably a bit too many ground balls. He hit righties better than lefties in AAA, which should make him more than a strictly platoon bat. Guthrie is also an at least plus runner who is quite fast when underway.
He is on the older side, and there are holes in his offensive profile. He walked in his time in the majors, but it has never been a minor league strength. He makes a lot of good contact, but he does strike out at a high enough rate to not make a living as a pure contact guy. He can play a good center field, but he is not going to be a good enough defender there to carry any offensive deficiencies. This applies to a lot of his positional flexibility, where he is not a good enough defender for the premium positions and does not have a good enough bat for the non-premium ones. All this means that Guthrie lacks upside, but he fits very well on a modern bench where he can provide coverage at a lot of positions and is a good enough hitter to produce value when put into positions to succeed. He is still prospect eligible, but he is essentially already filling the role he projects to have.
2023 Outlook: Guthrie is the only player other than Brandon Marsh who projects to make the Opening Day roster and play a capable center field. If the Phillies don’t look to platoon Marsh, Guthrie probably has limited moments to get any consistent at bats, especially once Harper gets back, but probably should see late game defensive work and maybe an occasional start when someone rests.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: UR
19. Jordan Viars, OF
Age: 7/18/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 3rd Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’4” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 44 | 154 | 2 | 5 | 9.5% | 22.3% | .240 | .330 | .331 |
| CLW (A-) | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 32.1% | .208 | .286 | .208 |
Role: Everyday Outfielder or First Baseman
Risk: Extreme – The tools are all there for Viars to be an impact bat, which is why the ceiling is unchanged. However, his chance of hitting that outcome took a hit last season, and while he is playing more outfield, it is not going to be a skill that adds value to his profile.
Summary: Viars looked slated to start with the Threshers in 2022, but an ankle injury in the spring delayed that start of his season, and he joined the FCL Phillies when their season began. After performing well at that level in 2021, 2022 was a struggle. Viars’ swing looked in between and his timing off. His bat is still quick and when he did make it to Clearwater, the batted ball data still suggests he can hit the ball harder than almost anyone in the system. However, the swing issues meant a lot of high fly balls, particularly on the infield as he got under the ball. Defensively, Viars looks to be settling into left field, with some time in right, but his stints at first base have come to an end. He won’t be a good defender in the outfield, but if he can at least stand out there, it does take a little pressure off of his bat. The underlying tools are still there for Viars, and despite a mature physique he does not turn 20 until July so he is still fairly young. The Phillies and him will need to find a swing that works for him. Given that 2022 was mostly a throwaway year, restarting with Clearwater seems like the path forward.
2023 Outlook: Viars barely played in Clearwater last year and is only 19, so spending the bulk of his season in Florida is probably in order. The Phillies have pushed their prospects at the end of seasons, so a late summer trip to Jersey Shore could be the reward for a bounce back season.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 13
20. Christian McGowan, RHP
Age: 3/7/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 7th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 205
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 7.1 | 4.91 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 6.9% | 24.1% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter / 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme/High – It is a bit of a cop out, but there is a clear path post injury for McGowan as a sinker-slider reliever. Coming off of Tommy John surgery and throwing a full starter’s workload and arsenal requires a bit more wait and see. Given he appeared in two games in 2022 and we haven’t seen him post-surgery, it is a little early to say McGowan is absolutely a reliever going forward.
Summary: Much like fellow 2021 draftee Micah Ottenbreit, McGowan had a solid but slightly concerning start, and then a disastrous start followed by season ending Tommy John surgery in April. Assuming a normal recovery, McGowan should be back on a mound in a rehab capacity this spring and in games by the summer.
When healthy, McGowan has a mid 90s fastball that can touch higher and a good slider. He did not throw a changeup in pro ball in 2021 (5 innings), but did in college as well as a curveball. His stuff does not jump off the page statistically like many of the Phillies other draft picks, using more of a two seamer with good run and sink rather than a high spin 4 seamer. There were some rumblings that he profiled better as a reliever before the draft, but he does have a starter’s arsenal and build. Missing a year due to injury is certainly a development setback, but assuming McGowan can come back to where he was before the injury it should be more of a bump than a roadblock.
2023 Outlook: McGowan had surgery early in the 2022 season, so he should start throwing in the spring with a return over the summer. Depending on when that is, we could see McGowan ramp up from the complex to low-A, to back to hi-A Jersey Shore. If he comes back healthy, he will also be a prime candidate for the Arizona Fall League.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 23
21. Francisco Morales, RHP
Age: 10/27/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2016
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 185lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 23 | 0 | 2-0 | 30.1 | 1.48 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 14.7% | 46.6% |
| LHV (AAA) | 22 | 0 | 0-0 | 20.2 | 9.58 | 10.5 | 0.4 | 24.8% | 14.2% |
| SUR (AFL) | 9 | 0 | 1-0 | 10.2 | 0.84 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 15.9% | 38.6% |
| PHI (MLB) | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 5.0 | 7.20 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 28.6% | 14.3% |
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Without Morales completely reinventing himself, the high leverage upside is probably gone for him. His slider is a good enough pitch that a team likely figures to get some good middle relief years out of him.
Summary: The Phillies moved Morales to the bullpen to open the year, with the hope that his stuff and control would play up in the short bursts and he could help the Phillies quickly. It looked to be off to a good start with Morales striking out 28 and walking only 6 across 16.1 innings to open the season. He got a brief cameo with the Phillies and earned a big league save (in a game where he walked 3). He then went to AAA and everything fell apart. He eventually was demoted to AA, where he was good again, and then was bad again upon returning to AAA. He had good results, but poor control in the AFL. It was all enough for the Phillies, and every other team in baseball, to determine they didn’t want him on their 40 man roster.
Morales still looks the part. He has gotten his frame back in shape and is a bit more athletic. His slider isn’t a high spin monster, but he has great feel for manipulating the shape of it, and overall it is a plus pitch that acts like a power curveball. His fastball is where the problem lies. It has good velocity (94-97), but has no run or cut while not having any rise either. We now know it is more of an average pitch, and with his inability to command it, a real liability. The Phillies have tried adding a cutter to protect it, but he struggled to command it. At this point, it is unlikely that the Phillies are going to make a dramatic change to the shape of the fastball, so it would behoove them to find some other pitch to help diversify Morales’s arsenal. The slider is good enough to carry Morales to a major league relief role if he can make some improvements. He is only 23, so there is time to find another average pitch or to throw the fastball with just enough command to not have it obliterated.
2023 Outlook: Morales is no longer on the 40 man roster and is buried behind a lot of high octane pitchers who are on the roster. He should return to face his demons in AAA, and he has the talent to regain a spot on the 40 man roster if he can have success there.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 16
22. Orion Kerkering, RHP
Age: 4/4/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 204lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| CLW (A-) | 5 | 0 | 1-0 | 6.0 | 4.50 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 24.0% |
Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering is a tailor made good 4th to 6th best reliever in a bullpen. He has a good fastball and a wicked breaking ball that is at least plus. He has a track record of success in college out of the bullpen.
Summary: The Phillies have not been afraid to take college pitchers they view as relievers early and often in the draft. There is a small chance they do attempt to move Kerkering back into the rotation in 2023, but everything about his profile says fast moving reliever. His fastball (of the 4 and 2 seam varieties) is a solid pitch, sitting around 95 and reaching up to 97 in pro ball. He threw a changeup in college, but none as a pro. The big selling point on Kerkering is his slider (of which Statcast typed many as curveballs). It averaged right about 3000 RPM in pro-ball, sitting about 85 mph with big, two plane sweep. It projects as at least a plus pitch, and it will not be surprising if it is Kerkering’s most used pitch for much of his career. He has shown no qualms about breaking it down on the feet of lefties, keeping him from being an extreme platoon arm. Given the lack of a dominant fastball or other pitch/attribute it is hard to see Kerkering as an 8th/9th inning lockdown reliever, but he could move quickly in more of the middle to 7th inning type role, where the Phillies could see if can handle multiple innings.
2023 Outlook: Assuming they don’t try to mess with success and put Kerkering in a rotation again, they should send him to Jersey Shore where he should move quickly if he has success. It is highly unlikely he ascends in a way that puts himself in position for a role in 2023, but he can ascend to at least AA and get himself in the conversation as 2024 depth.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: N/A