Arizona Fall League Recap – Hitters

by

This year the Phillies only sent two hitters the Arizona Fall League.  The first was former second round pick in the 2011 draft, Clearwater CF, Roman Quinn and the other was AA catcher Logan Moore.  Quinn came with much bigger expectations and played in 24 of Scottsdale’s 32 games (including missing time due to an injury scare), Moore was more roster filler and a back up, getting into only 12 games.

Read more

Jesse Biddle and Shane Watson News From Josh Norris (Baseball America)

by

Since this likely to get buried wherever tweets go to die here are some quick Phillies pitching updates from Baseball America’s Josh Norris (who writes up the Phillies Top 30 among many other things). Just spoke to Joe Jordan for 90 minutes. One bit of news: Shane Watson will have another shoulder surgery. #Phillies — … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 4 – Cole Hamels Trade Scenarios

by

The logical last piece of this series of posts was to talk about what an actual Cole Hamels trade would look like.  If you have not read parts 1-3 (Surplus Value, Valuing Prospects, and The Value of Hamels) I strongly advise you to go back and read them because this will be a continuation of the topics discussed in those pieces.  I am going to explore the potential outcomes for a Cole Hamels trade looking at surplus value, how fans value Hamels in a trade, what his value is on the field, and how the Phillies value Hamels in a trade.

The teams that definitely have the money and prospects to be in on Hamels are the Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers.  On the fringes the Pirates, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays all have the resources to make a deal happen.  There are many factors to a Hamels trade, from his salary, to the “surplus value” he will return, to the rarity of such a pitcher being available on the market.  All of these factors go to together, and while some may be objective, the end result will be very subjective.

Read more

Dylan Cozens and the Deception of MiLB Splits

by

As minor league fans we grasp for hope and improvement in minor league players, and we often grasp on to little pieces of information in an effort to make sense of the chaos.  This ranges from singular scouting reports from a singular person on a singular day or series* to a set of splits on a stats page.  We are just looking for narrative and meaning.  The player that has risen to the top of the narrative pile is Phillies Low-A right fielder Dylan Cozens.

*This is the nature of scouting and why multiple looks and context are important parts of the entire evaluation process.

The narrative coming out of the season was that Cozens built on first half successes into an outstanding second half, and from the surface if we take the triple slash line that looks fairly accurate.

BA OBP SLG
1st Half 0.229 0.282 0.403
2nd Half 0.267 0.324 0.426

Read more

The Past Week 11-7-2014

by

The Past Week: Baseball Prospect Top 10 Phillies Prospect List (my reaction) Phillies MiLB Free Agents – Phillies Minor Thoughts Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels – Phillies Minor Thoughts (Pt 1 and Pt 2) Offseason Mailbag #1 – Phillies Minor Thoughts Roman Quinn in the AFL (Jordan Gorosh, Ethan Purser, Todd Gold) – … Read more

Phillies MiLB Free Agents

by

Baseball America put out their comprehensive list of minor league free agents today.  The Phillies have a decent amount of players up for free agency.  For the most part players that reach minor league free agency have little in the way of ceiling left.  Occasionally some guys slip through with a ceiling of being a contributor … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels

by

You can find part 1 of this series (Surplus Value) here and part 2 (Valuing Prospects) here Now that we have the basic theory of surplus value it is time to determine what Cole Hamels is actually worth.  Dave Cameron has contended that there isn’t more than $5,000,000 in surplus value in the contract.  The Phillies … Read more