For those that were not in the weeds of the minor leagues, it may not have been noticed that domestic minor league rosters were cut down to 165 during the season and 175 during the offseason. This change has had impacts on many different groups of players and there are outstanding concerns as the season gets ready to start.
The domestic minor league roster includes all players who are in the US and not on the MLB active roster, outside an exception of 10 players on long term injured lists. During the offseason the 175 limit does not get the benefit of the IL, but all members of the 40 man roster are on the MLB active roster until they are optioned. The Phillies have been right at that 175 limit for much of the offseason, having to release players to sign minor league deals and metering which players they have brought over from their complexes. Getting to 165 has been a bit more extreme.
By my accounting, on March 22 the Phillies have 170 players on the minor league roster, using 3 of their long term IL designations. They have somewhere between 4 and 6 more minor league demotions from big league camp remaining (the IL or option designations for Orion Kerkering and Rafael Marchan are the variable). They have at least 4 more players who I expect to be put on a 60 day IL due to a 2023 Tommy John surgery (Andrew Painter, Alex Garbrick, Alex McFarlane, and Giussepe Velasquez). To get that point the Phillies have traded two players for cash (Jason Ruffcorn and Ezequiel Ventura) rather than release them and have released 20 players since the start of January. None of those players were of current minor league prominence, but some were of minor interest. That also does not fully matter though because the actual mechanics of the minor leagues are about to be tested as the depth has been stripped away.
This year, the FCL season will start in early May, meaning the 165 players must cover 5 levels of the minor leagues. That is 33 players per roster which must cover both active players, the injured list, and players who aren’t playing due to working on things outside of games. If everything goes well, that is probably a workable situation, but the minor leagues have much less elasticity than the majors. If there is an injury or overwork in the majors, the MLB team just reaches down to AAA brings someone up. Because it is the MLB team they also are normally willing to get that player on any transportation needed (also the destination and possibly the origin point are likely in transit hubs). In the minor leagues, a short term call up is likely farther away and can cause a chain reaction down the minor leagues where each team must cannibalize another in order to play the next nights. In previous seasons, each team (especially the AAA team) often had players either paper moved to the development list or the complex who served as that buffer. Those players are gone.
The minors are also often more regimented in player usage as well. Players may be coming back from injury, very young, or doing supplementary activities such as extra bullpens or weight training, and are not available every night. The minor league roster has to accommodate the players who play, but also some amount of players that make sure a game occurs. As the rosters shrink, there becomes less room for dealing with unforeseen circumstances.
All of this sort of glosses over that playing time and opportunities continue to shrink. Since the roster size applies to the complex, it makes bringing over players from the Dominican Complex much more difficult, and the opportunities have decreased and much more of the culling is occurring at the complexes. There is also less chance for a player to make a change after a few years in the minors. Players must show progress quickly or they will find themselves phased out, just so that roster sizes can be maintained. Ultimately the roster sizes will stabilize with less dramatic release numbers, but that will be due to decreases in signing and drafting classes. Less players will enter into the pipeline and it will be harder for those that leave it to get back in.
And a player like Mike Piazza (drafted #1390, in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft) will never again have the opportunity to play professional baseball, let alone be elected to the HOF.
It does seem that some sort of higher organizational limit would make sense. Now teams will stash players in the DSL for far too long and that might deny them opportunities for better coaching and training and resources in Clearwater. Maybe something like a 250-person organizational limit including the long term injured slots. Then let teams deploy them as they see fit. We probably have 60+ players in the DSL now so 250 would not be much of an increase. The 165 limit does seem a bit onerous when the team uses tandem starters at most levels and sometimes rehabbing players are on very strict limits.
Baseball should design a system that better develops players rather than a system designed to save pennies here and there.