Midseason Phillies Prospect List and Trade Thoughts

As the Phillies head towards the trade deadline with some holes to fill on the roster and pieces they could use to fill them, it felt appropriate to combine the idea of a midseason ranking and thoughts on the trade deadline. There are no numbers in front of the players, but you can pretend there are for the top 10, they are nominally in the order I would choose today, but I won’t argue order within a group.

Functionally Untouchable

Mick Abel, RHP

Abel did not pitch much in 2020 due to the pandemic and in 2021 due to injuries. This season, the 20 year old right hander is third in the system in innings pitched. The Phillies have once again limited Abel in a variety of ways with the goal of getting him built up to a workhorse workload and developing all of his pitches. Abel’s fastball has remained stable, sitting 94-98 with good life. His slider, when on, is best secondary pitch with plus to plus plus action. He still has the full 4 pitch mix. Abel has struggled with command at times, losing the zone for periods of time, but the Phillies have let him work through them. Some of the shine is off of Abel, but he can be a front end starter in more of an old school way.

Andrew Painter, RHP

Painter is flashy and noticeable while being understated in composure on the mound. His fastball sits in the high 90s, and has touched 100+, and comes out easy from his hand. His slider tunnels well and his curveball gives him a good second breaking ball. He shows a changeup, but it needs refining and repetition. The Phillies have limited Painter more when it comes to innings, shutting him down and ramping him back up. Painter is not the polished pitcher that Abel is, and he has gotten away with his fastball being too overpowering for low minors hitters. Given how strong that base is, Painter has large upside, there is just more growth left than his stats might indicate.

The Phillies have signaled they are not willing to move Painter or Abel in trades. This appears to be a two part thing where they might be available, but nothing they are available for is available. The Phillies are working on the long term for both of them and view them as difference makers, and they have a distinct need for pitchers going forward.

It Would Need to be Special

Griff McGarry, RHP

McGarry might have the best raw stuff in the org. His fastball is mid to high 90s with explosive movement, and he throws it with great extension and plane, making it a true bat missing pitch up in the zone. He also throws a plus slider, as well as a cutter (the dual slider-cutter is appearing more in the org), a curveball, a changeup, and a two seamer. McGarry used to have large control problems, now he has smaller control problems. He tends not to miss by much, though he still has times where he loses it, and some of it may be adjusting to the lack of chase from better hitters. McGarry has not always been the highest efficiency pitcher, but has shown improvement there as well, and despite a delayed start to the season he is the first pitcher in the system to get to the 100 pitch mark for his starts. While he may see bullpen work if the Phillies determine that is his role late in the year, he now firmly projects as a starting pitcher. The next big step will be getting his command to a place where he can be a 6+ inning starter and not a 5 inning turn the lineup over twice type. Either way, McGarry has large per batter upside.

The Phillies don’t seem to be looking to move McGarry, instead focusing on what he could do for the 2022 team himself. That said, he lacks the same protections they have wrapped their top two arms in. If the Phillies make an unexpected big move at the deadline, McGarry is likely to be the one at the center of it.

You Have to Give to Get

Logan O’Hoppe, C

Logan O’Hoppe has just gotten better every year. This season he has consolidated his gains in strikeout rate and carried forward the strong walk rates from the Arizona Fall League. His defense continues to improve, and while he is still unlikely to win a gold glove, he is safe to be a good defender. O’Hoppe does have his flaws, he gets to almost all of his raw power via a heavy pull side/fly ball approach, and that opens him up  to some swing and miss. It is likely he will see regression in average, walks, and strikeouts as he faces better pitchers. If the swing holes are too large, he projects as a good back up catcher, otherwise he has all the tools to be a solid catcher for a playoff team. He isn’t going to carry a team or be too flashy, but he is one of the most well rounded catching prospects in the minors.

Hao Yu Lee, 2B

Everyone raved about Lee this winter, and that has continued into the season. He missed some time due to a broken hand from a hit by pitch, but is back playing. The Phillies have played him some at shortstop, but he is a second baseman, who might be able to also stand at third. The big draw is his offensive potential. He just keeps hitting, and it isn’t just contact, it is consistent solid contact. He also has strikeout and walk numbers that are among the best for his age and level in the minors. He has the potential to be a solid regular or better for a contending team, and is one of the better all around teenage hitting prospects out there.

The Phillies system is not dead, but it is not going to offer other organizations a menu of options in trades. If the Phillies are in the market for a controllable everyday player, they are going to need to give up value. They don’t need to move O’Hoppe in a trade at the deadline, he just is a good prospect at a position that is filled in the major leagues. Unfortunately, there are a lot of good catching prospects out there, many of them on selling teams. That is where Lee comes in. Lee is not someone the Phillies should be looking to move, but teams crave young hitters that can hit, and with infield flexibility and no ticking 40 man clock, Lee has wide appeal. That said, the Phillies should only be entertaining Lee as a piece in a deal if the acquiring team is valuing him at this level. If the Phillies are looking for an above average regular with control, they are almost certainly going to have to talk heavily about O’Hoppe and Lee. They don’t need to move either (though they do need to move some catchers), but if they want to make an upgrade that spans into 2023 you have to give to get.

Can’t Trade Him, Even if You Wanted To

Justin Crawford, OF

You could possibly move Crawford above O’Hoppe and Lee, and he probably is in the middle of them if trade tiers were not the conceit of this piece. Crawford has enormous risk because of the gap between what he is currently and what he needs to be. Unlike many Phillies hitters, the base for Crawford might already be there, he has a feel for contact and an idea of what he is doing at the plate. He just isn’t physically where he needs to be, and while he has the frame and the plan, it is still a large unknown. Crawford could be a dynamic center fielder with offensive impact to go with high level defense. 

Flawed and Talented

Johan Rojas, OF

Can Johan Rojas hit? I still don’t know. He has shown growth in his approach, but he still expands, makes bad swing decisions, struggles with pitch recognition, and misses pitches in the zone. It is not a great combination of characteristics, but Rojas also has shown the ability to rise to a challenge. The contact problems have meant his power has not really played, and those two skills are going to be tied heavily together. Outside of at the plate, he is still a great center field defender, and has been just an absolute terror on the bases. Some individuals are going to think he can be fixed or improved and there is an impact player still in there, other individuals see a player that might be a flawed bench outfielder as a ceiling. Overall, Rojas’ ceiling is still intact, but the cracks in the foundation are starting to look structural.

Ben Brown, RHP

Brown has had a breakout season for Jersey Shore. He had a slow return from 2019 Tommy John Surgery, but has hit the ground running in 2022. His velocity is up, sitting mid 90s and touching up to 98. He can miss bats up in the zone with it. He pairs it with a hard slider and vertical curveball. Brown has always had solid control, and he has shown in the last month that he can work deep into games with pitch counts in the high 80s, low 90s. Brown does not really have a changeup of note, and his breaking balls are not of a caliber currently where he projects as someone who could survive without one. That means that Brown has a lot of reliever risk, but given the fastball quality (and possibly more in short bursts) he could be a high leverage arm if that is the fall back. 

Erik Miller, LHP

The Phillies have done some weird things with Miller’s development this year with him pitching in a relief role with a starter’s rest. The goal was to keep him healthy, but it has also shown that he might be better suited for the relief role. Miller has a starter’s arsenal, but he has translated that well to keeping hitters off balance in the bullpen. His fastball is up into more of the upper 90s, and his slider looks harder, both have high spin rates and good characteristics. He has long flashed a plus changeup and definitely unleashed one in his very brief Futures Game appearance. There is a non-zero chance Miller starts again, especially if traded. However, the Phillies have started to really think about what he could do in their bullpen as soon as this year.

Francisco Morales, RHP

It is weird to say a guy’s profile has gone up with a move to the bullpen, but it has made Morales make more sense (also the rest of the system has done worse). Morales put it all together briefly, reaching the major leagues and even earning a save. Morales’ fastball is sitting in the higher end of its 93-97 range, but the real advantage of being in the bullpen is his slider can just be his weapon. It is a plus to plus plus weapon that is devastating when he throws it for strikes. The control issues are still a problem and they tend to clump, but Morales looks like he could be a late inning arm now that his role is defined.

Unless another team is buying Rojas’ hot streak in AA, the Phillies are selling low on Rojas (unless of course they think he is going to continue tanking). However, if the Phillies are swinging a large deal, especially for a center fielder, Rojas makes sense as a second piece in a deal. Overall, Rojas likely does not have enough trade value to make him worth moving. Brown is probably the Phillies most likely trade piece. He needs a 40 man spot, has a solid combination of upside (mid rotation starter) and floor (solid reliever), and his wider appeal as a pitcher than someone like O’Hoppe. Brown does not have the value to headline a big acquisition, but he might have enough to headline a solid acquisition with one more year of control. Miller likely has value to the right team if they see some hope he is a starter, but his proximity to the majors and impact bullpen potential means the Phillies would need to weigh heavily if the return on a Miller trade is better than just using Miller. Morales isn’t untouchable, but much like Rojas and Miller, it is unlikely the Phillies would get something better than just fixing Morales.

40 Man Trade Candidate Updates

Not all of the following are technically prospects, but they fill the same age and experience slot in the system. Right now the Phillies face an active 40 man crunch (assuming they will be adding major leaguers at the deadline, which feels like a safe assumption) and a crunch at certain positions in the offseason. They will likely prioritize trading away players on the 40 currently or who will need to be on it in the offseason.

• Donny Sands, C – Sands missed a chunk of time due to injury, but has been a huge part of the AAA offense when healthy. Sands posts high end exit velocities and good walk and strikeout rates. There are some concerns about whether they will fully carry over to the majors. The bigger problem is he has no chance in the running game, making it hard to make him a full time catcher. The Phillies are facing a catcher 40 man roster crunch, and Sands looks to be someone who would draw interest as a flier for a more minor piece. He profiles as a second catcher that might be able to not be a zero at DH if needed.
• Rafael Marchan, C – Marchan is caught up in the same crunch as Sands and O’Hoppe. Marchan has made progress in driving the ball better and he is showing career highs in power. Marchan is a good defender, but not elite enough to carry his bat. He is more of a prototype second catcher who is not a zero at the plate while giving little defensive drop off.
• Simon Muzziotti, OF – Muzziotti has missed much of the season and has only actually played 27 games for AA Reading. His walk rate has continued to trend upwards, but his strikeouts are also up in the early going. He is running a low(for him) BABIP of .243, which appears to be a combination of bad luck and poor contact. You have to consider his stock down given he desperately needs at bats, but it is still very wait and see.
• Mickey Moniak, OF – It looks right now like Moniak is not going to hit major league caliber breaking balls. He may get a handle of it, but for now it isn’t looking great. He has made legitimate strides in helping to drive the ball better and hitting other pitches. Some teams may think they can get a major leaguer out of this.
• Luis Garcia, SS – It has been functionally been and likely will continue to be a lost year for Garcia, thanks to a hand injury early in the season. Already a player with limited power, he seems to have very little ability to drive the ball. At this point he would be a sell extremely low.
• Jhailyn Ortiz, OF – Ortiz has gotten hot in July, particularly in the striking out less department. He has shown growth year over year, but he is a corner outfielder in an org with too many corner outfielders on long term contracts in the majors (he is a better defender than most of them).
• Nick Maton, SS – After a year in which he was inexplicably trained to hit everything on the ground, Maton is back to hitting the ball hard and in the air again. He has troubles against lefties and soft stuff, but he murders fastballs and plays three infield positions. For a good team he gets 300-400 plate appearances as a backup infielder and in platoon situations. The question is whether the Phillies will trust him with that role or will a team try to pry him away.

Other Updates

No one in the system is safe from a trade, and while these are less obvious to be moved guys, they could be moved in a trade. But really, I just wanted to give a quick update around the system.

• Marcus Lee Sang, OF – Lee Sang was always going to be a project for the Phillies, and he very much still is. He is walking a bit more, hitting the ball a bit harder, and showing month over month growth. He is still far off from being able to comfortably project a major league future, but keep checking back because he has talent.
• Jadiel Sanchez, OF – It is unfortunate Sanchez has missed most of the season to injury, because he is poised for a breakout. He was one of the Threshers leaders in both average exit velocity and for 80th percentile outcomes. The switch hitter lacks big upside, but he has a chance to hit enough to be a regular.
• Noah Skirrow, RHP – Skirrow has experienced an uptick in velocity that moves him from trending like an org guy, to trending like a depth starter. He is missing more bats, but has been very hittable at the same time.
• Andrew Schultz, RHP – Schultz is back from Tommy John surgery and back to being a similar guy to what he was before. His fastball sits 97-99, touching 100 and he has a hard short slider. His arm action is extremely short and his control has been touch and go. He will need to throw strikes to be some sort of major league reliever, and right now that is trending more like an inconsistent middle reliever if he makes it.
• Brett Schulze, RHP – Schulze is also returning from injury. He has ramped it up to 96 showing a fastball, slider, and curveball. He is an interesting arm, but we are still in the wait and see time period. 
• Jean Cabrera, RHP – Cabrera burst onto the scene as the Paul Owens winner in 2021. The Phillies challenged him by jumping him to low-A. It has been up and down with the control coming and going. He shows feel for a 4 pitch mix, led by the fastball, and has mostly been in the 92-95 range. He is 20, but still has more physical projection. More project than breakout prospect so far.
• Dalton Guthrie, OF – Last season, Dalton Guthrie just inexplicably began to mash. This year he has mostly carried that over while primarily playing center field. He is 26, so he is really past the level of being a real prospect anymore, but he handles righties, makes contact, and has some pop. There might be a bench player of some sort in here.
• McKinley Moore, RHP – Moore, acquired for Adam Haseley, has a good fastball up to 99, but it is very much control over command, and the control seemingly goes when he reaches back for more.
• Casey Martin, SS – Casey Martin’s defense has gotten rave reviews. The reports on him not being able to hit that came from his college days have proven to be true.
• Ethan Wilson, OF – Wilson was supposedly caught between a guy who could hit and a guy who could hit for power. He is doing neither in A-ball while being a left field only defender in the long term. He has been the subject of the most disappointing reports of the season.
• Andrew Baker, RHP – Baker showed control problems in college and then in the pros after signing. His fastball is electric, and it looks like he has possibly  started to get a better handle on throwing strikes in July. He is a project arm, but one with some impact relief upside if he can make strides with the control.
• Rickardo Perez, C – Perez missed extended spring training with an ankle injury, but has been getting consistent playing time in the FCL since coming back. He makes a lot of contact, but has yet to really hit for power (one extra base hit, a home run)
• Yemal Flores, OF – Flores is the opposite of Perez, he is solidly built, but might be able to play center field. He has made some strides to cut down on the swing and miss in July, but there is a lot to cut down. He hasn’t consistently hit for power (he also hasn’t consistently hit), but the raw power is clearly evident.
• Eiberson Castellano, RHP – Castellan wasn’t a starter in the DSL last year, and was already 20 years old, so his 1.09 ERA went very unnoticed. He also was sent directly to the FSL, where he has held his own. His fastball has averaged 92, but been up to 95. He has a distinct two seamer and cutter as well. Good spin on a deep curveball, and he has worked in a changeup. He looks like an interesting back of the rotation type.
• Starlyn Castillo, RHP – Castillo is returning from Tommy John surgery and so far the results have been sort of ugly. His control has been rough with Clearwater, and he has been very hittable. Stuff wise, he is still a bit behind with his average velocity being similar (~93), but lacking some of the top end punch (touch 95 instead of 96). The changeup is still hard (but that has come more into fashion), but he is throwing it more. His breaking ball is still his best pitch with 2700+ RPM spin rates.
• Yhoswar Garcia, OF – Garcia needed to play more, but then suffered a lower body injury that will keep him out for the rest of the season. He still can be a good defender and his speed can be a weapon. He has room to grow physically, but he is also now almost 21 and running out of time.
• Vito Friscia, C/1B/OF – Friscia feels like what you look for in your elder statesman/org guys. He can catch, play first, and step into left field if you need. He represents an international team (Italy), and he gives you patience and power in your AA lineup. He probably never makes the majors, but he might be a coach and probably has a AA/AAA roster spot for the next few years. It is good for orgs to have Vito Friscias.
• Carlos De La Cruz, OF – De La Cruz had a lost 2021 and was bad enough the Phillies exposed him to the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. He is starting to put some things together the last two months, and while he is nearly 23 in high-A, there are still enough tools here that if he put it all together he could be a major leaguer, even if that possibility is remote. He can still stand in center, but has added first base to his repertoire. He has plus plus raw power and is a good runner. He probably never hits, but he is fun to follow. 
• Cristian Hernandez, RHP – Hernandez was unable to find success, and control, in the rotation to open the season. His fastball has ticked up a bit in relief, but he isn’t missing bats even if he is finding some overall success.
• Tommy McCollum, RHP – McCollum was an undrafted free agent from last year who was solid in April and May, but had turned into an upper case G guy in June striking out 20 with 1 walk in 11.2 innings. His season now appears to be over after being hit by a comebacker. It wasn’t just the numbers, McCollum was up to 98 and was featuring a nasty splitter and good curveball and cutter.
• Kendall Simmons, IF – It is sort of the same story for Simmons as before. He has gotten hot at times, hits the ball harder than most, but does not hit the ball as much as you need him to.
• Trevor Bettencourt, RHP – Very high spin pitches, including a high 80s cutter and a devastating curveball. Fastball still sits around 90, but there is enough funk he could sneak a cup of coffee.
• Jordan Viars, OF – Viars is another guy who missed quite a bit of time due to injury this spring. He is still struggling a bit at the plate, even if the overall numbers aren’t terrible under the hood. Overall not the year he or the Phillies were hoping for.
• Jamari Baylor, SS – Baylor has a better idea of what he should swing at than what his stats say, but right now he is swinging very hard with seemingly no inflight control and he is getting beat on the pitches he is trying to swing at.
• Nikau Pouaka-Grego, 2B – The Phillies signed Nikau from New Zealand and he appears to be another good scouting find. He is walking more than he is striking out, while making consistent solid contact. It isn’t quite the Hao Yu Lee hype, but he is a nice looking prospect so far.
• Jaydenn Estanista, RHP – Estanista is kind of hiding in the anonymity of the FCL roster. He is a lanky 20 year old RHP who has been hard to hit in the FCL thanks to a good looking fastball that sits mid 90s, up to 97. His curveball has promise, but he doesn’t control or hide it well. The fastball alone makes him someone who should be on radars.
• Nicoly Pina, RHP – Pina appeared on the stage in 2019 as a 19 year old in the GCL with a good fastball and poor control. He missed 2021 due to Tommy John and is still working his way back. The fastball is up to 97 with good life, but also iffy control. He is armed with a better slider and changeup than before as well. He still profiles as a reliever, but is 22 and still in the FCL, so at some point he will need to get moving.
• Gunner Mayer, RHP – Mayer missed a chunk of the season to a non-baseball injury. He still is mostly the same pitcher he was. The fastball velocity is still pretty much in line, and maybe the curveball is a bit more vertical. He had a slider appear for a single game cameo upon his return, but it hasn’t appeared since then. He just turned 22 so young and projectable is no longer an accurate description of him.
• William Bergolla Jr., SS – Bergolla missed the start of the DSL season due to injury, so information is very sparse, so we can’t make any change of opinion on him yet. He is playing now, so maybe we see some flashes before the end of the season.

Out with Injury

Some players barely played or not at all before losing their year to injury.

• Micah Ottenbreit – Tommy John
• Christian McGowan – Tommy John
• Matt Kroon – Kroon came off a good spring training looking poised for a breakout. He injured his leg in the second game of the AA season, ending his year.
• Daniel Brito – Last I heard, Brito was looking to be in games in Instructs