No matter how you slice it, Mick Abel has had a terrible season. There are 60 pitches with at least 80 innings pitched in AAA this season. He has the 47th best ERA (5.89), 51st best FIP (5.89), the 58th best walk rate (15.6%), the 43rd best HR/9 (1.43), and compliments that with only the 23rd best strikeout rate (21.5%). That all is with Abel putting together 2 of his best starts of the year in his last two outings (11 IP 6 H 1 R 0 ER 6 BB 15 K) to go with his game 4 starts ago (5 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K) that was his best start of the season to date.
We are generally predisposed to view current trends as a continuing trend and not random fluctuations. In this case though, the results are not the only changing trend. Since Mick Abel is in AAA, we have Statcast data on him as well, and that paints a much more interesting look at his season that just random struggles. Here is his 4-seam fastball over the course of the season
I have used Statcast data available from the Savant website and used Excel because I am not the most up to date or savvy on baseball statistical coding. I have also decided to use a single data source because most of what will be discussed is trending. VAA calculated using Alex Chamberlain’s formulas on Fangraphs.
| Date | Velocity (mph) | Horizontal Release Point (ft) | Vertical Release Point (ft) | Extension (ft) | Spin Rate (rpm) | Horizontal Break (in) | Vertical Break w/o Gravity (in) | VAA | Spin Axis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/7/2024 | 92.9 | -1.6 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 2170 | -8.7 | 15.7 | -4.4 | 216.5 |
| 4/12/2024 | 92.7 | -1.5 | 6 | 6.7 | 2109 | -8.8 | 15.7 | -4.6 | 216.7 |
| 4/18/2024 | 94.1 | -1.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 2201 | -9.5 | 16.6 | -4.3 | 216 |
| 4/25/2024 | 93.7 | -1.5 | 6 | 6.6 | 2069 | -8.7 | 16 | -4.2 | 217.2 |
| 5/1/2024 | 93 | -1.5 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2227 | -8.3 | 17.2 | -4.2 | 211.8 |
| 5/10/2024 | 92.9 | -1.4 | 6 | 6.6 | 2046 | -8.8 | 15.6 | -4.9 | 217.8 |
| 5/17/2024 | 93.9 | -1.3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2074 | -7.3 | 14.8 | -4.5 | 217.7 |
| 5/24/2024 | 94.2 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.6 | 2019 | -8.6 | 13.3 | -4.9 | 216.9 |
| 5/31/2024 | 94.9 | -1.1 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 2224 | -9.1 | 15.4 | -4.7 | 212.3 |
| 6/9/2024 | 94.8 | -1 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 2069 | -8 | 13.5 | -4.9 | 214.5 |
| 6/16/2024 | 94.4 | -0.9 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 2226 | -6.5 | 15.5 | -4.4 | 211.8 |
| 6/22/2024 | 94.7 | -1 | 6 | 6.7 | 2159 | -8 | 14.2 | -5.3 | 214.2 |
| 6/28/2024 | 95.4 | -1 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 2207 | -8.5 | 14.6 | -4.6 | 217.9 |
| 7/4/2024 | 95.2 | -1.1 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 2256 | -7.6 | 14.6 | -4.6 | 216.9 |
| 7/11/2024 | 95 | -1.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 2212 | -7.8 | 15 | -4.6 | 215.6 |
| 7/24/2024 | 96 | -1.3 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 2329 | -7.2 | 16 | -4.4 | 215.5 |
| 7/30/2024 | 96 | -1.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 2450 | -7.6 | 15.9 | -4.4 | 212.4 |
| 8/9/2024 | 95.8 | -1.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 2473 | -7.3 | 17.3 | -4.8 | 213 |
| 8/14/2024 | 96.5 | -1.7 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 2396 | -6.7 | 16.3 | -4.6 | 211.6 |
A couple of simple and immediate things. The first is that we see a continuous upward trend in velocity until mid-July where we have had some plateauing. That said his average fastball velocity last year per the Phillies was 96.1mph, so it looks like he is back to where he was before, albeit with less delta as he has held his velocity better, but with fewer spikes. The spin rate increases at the velocity increases, which is what we would expect to see.
The less simple thing changing over time is his release point. The horizontal release point on his fastball changes greatly in the middle of the season and we see an effect on the movement profile of the pitch as well, with it losing the vertical ride and becoming more horizontally oriented over the course of the season, before he readjusts and we see the pitch get more ride and become more vertically oriented overall. Before getting into how it visually works, we should get into the statistics of it all. For the purposed of zone, I am also using the Statcast zone.
| Date | Zone% | Swing% | Whiff% | Z-Swing% | Z-Whiff% | O-Swing% | O-Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/7 | 48% | 48% | 27% | 80% | 25% | 19% | 33% |
| 4/12 | 44% | 44% | 33% | 62% | 31% | 30% | 38% |
| 4/18 | 40% | 40% | 24% | 65% | 18% | 23% | 33% |
| 4/25 | 35% | 38% | 23% | 83% | 20% | 14% | 33% |
| 5/1 | 28% | 38% | 47% | 91% | 40% | 18% | 60% |
| 5/10 | 52% | 45% | 20% | 69% | 15% | 19% | 40% |
| 5/17 | 49% | 43% | 22% | 73% | 26% | 15% | 0% |
| 5/24 | 46% | 39% | 14% | 60% | 7% | 21% | 33% |
| 5/31 | 43% | 46% | 14% | 75% | 13% | 23% | 17% |
| 6/9 | 43% | 46% | 12% | 69% | 0% | 29% | 33% |
| 6/16 | 48% | 48% | 27% | 65% | 18% | 32% | 44% |
| 6/22 | 58% | 46% | 21% | 70% | 19% | 14% | 33% |
| 6/28 | 46% | 54% | 45% | 82% | 43% | 30% | 50% |
| 7/4 | 44% | 44% | 29% | 76% | 19% | 19% | 60% |
| 7/11 | 35% | 42% | 15% | 71% | 8% | 26% | 25% |
| 7/24 | 51% | 49% | 32% | 65% | 24% | 32% | 50% |
| 7/30 | 47% | 51% | 25% | 77% | 35% | 28% | 0% |
| 8/9 | 39% | 61% | 40% | 69% | 27% | 56% | 50% |
| 8/14 | 58% | 48% | 43% | 54% | 40% | 40% | 50% |
I don’t know if there is a great correlation throughout where you can say that one trend definitely drives another, other than we can see a much increased chase rate (O-Swing%) and whiffs on those changes. That all said, two of his highest 4-seam fastball whiff% games where his last two and they also were is two highest chase rate games. We also see an overall trending to whiff% as his fastball velocity increases. We can see him getting more whiffs out of the zone with the improved shape.
As for the visual trending. Throughout the season Abel has stayed on the far first base side of the pitching rubber. Early in the year, his arm would violently drop back and then struggle to keep up.
By June it was a bit more under control, but he was coming more over the top with his delivery which we see in the horizontal release point data above.
This is a walk from his 8/9 start. You can see a big miss on a curveball to start, but the whole delivery is more under control and he is releasing the ball from closer to where he was to start the year. All of these clips have men on base and we see a slide step and not a full leg lift on each pitch.
This is a bunch of text without getting into his offspeed pitches where his slider and curveball shapes which have blended at times and are now getting more separation. In general, Abel looks a lot like 2023 Mick Abel now. He still has control issues, he still doesn’t get chases the way a pitcher with his quality of stuff should. However, we say that this isn’t just a hot streak, but this is a trend of constant improvement that has gotten us back to where he needs to be.
Incredible post. Thank you.