Max Kepler Represents a Pivot to a Different Offseason Plan

I bet if you gave the Phillies front office truth serum their offseason plan would have involved flipping Alec Bohm, Ranger Suarez, and some non top prospects in a series of move that kept the team fairly still from a talent side, but remade the skillset and timeline of the team. They would have ideally also liked to have moved maybe some of the top prospects for a younger player with years of control, but they weren’t optimistic about being the highest bidders once the offseason began.

None of that happened. Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have been available for the right deal, and it seems that in the case of Alec Bohm other teams wanted to buy low, and the Phillies were in the business of moving laterally, not back. Ranger Suarez was never moving without another starting pitcher coming in, and so he is still for now here as well. None of this is really bad, both Bohm and Suarez were deserving All-Stars last year, and while they have issues, are good major league baseball players.

So that leaves the Phillies with a more conventional offseason, though one somewhat handicapped in the creativity department by returning almost all of their 2024 team. Of players who contributed in the postseason, only Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez are no longer present, and in terms of the rest of the team Spencer Turnbull and Austin Hays are also now free agents. Turnbull is likely to be replaced by a bunch of placeholders and then Andrew Painter, who should be a large upgrade. Jordan Romano, signed to a 1 year deal, slides in for Estevez.

Now the Austin Hays spot looks to be filled by a 1 year deal for former Twin Max Kepler. Kepler was one of a handful of corner outfield bats left after Juan Soto signed, and while the amount of options makes it look like a robust market, it wasn’t all that it seemed. Here are the prominent corner OF free agents and their last 4 seasons (2021-2024). I have used Baseball Reference for WAR and offense and then used Outs Above Average (OAA) from Baseball Savant (compiled on Fangraph pages) as a comparable proxy for outfield skill.

Player	G	PA	bWAR	OPS+	OF OAA	Peak bWAR	Low bWAR	Deal Signed
% Teoscar Hernandez (R)	588	2460	13.0	126	-18	4.3 (24)	2.1 (23)
% Anthony Santander (S)	570	2406	8.6	119	-12	3.0 (23)	0.3 (21)
Tyler O’Neill (R)	419	1659	10.2	123	+1	6.1 (21)	0.3 (23)	3yr/$49.5M* (BAL)
Jurickson Profar (S)	572	2259	5.2	105	-32	3.6 (24)	-1.3 (23)
Max Kepler (L)	471	1826	8.0	101	+27	2.9 (23)	1.0 (24)	1yr/$10M (PHI)
Michael Conforto (L)	380	1437	2.8	106	-6	1.3 (24)	0 (22 DNP)	1yr/$17M (LAD)
Joc Pederson (L)	524	1788	4.9	125	-21#	2.9 (24)	0.1 (21)
Austin Hays (R)	505	1932	8.0	108	-10	3.2 (21)	-0.1 (24)
Alex Verdugo (L)	589	2471	6.9	98	-9	2.6 (23)	0.8 (24)

Just looking at the peak and low WAR we can see this is a volatile market. Jurickson Profar is reportedly looking for 3 years and is coming off of an excellent season, but just two years ago he left the Padres for the Rockies and had a horrendous year. Personally I think that Teoscar Hernandez is the clear cut best player, you just have to deal with Hernandez-Marsh-Castellanos being a disastrous defensive outfield, he also comes with large demands and a qualifying offer. O’Neill has long been a player I thought was a good fit for the Phillies. The contract he agreed to with the Orioles is not super expensive, but it comes with little long term upside for the team due to opt outs, and he destroys left handed pitching but probably shouldn’t face a bunch of righties.

Before getting into his offense, the thing that stood out to me about Kepler is that he is a good fielder. Now that has been in right field and for now he is moving to left, a position he hasn’t played since 2015 in AA. Now theoretically all the skills should translate to left, we just haven’t always seen that happen. Now this is important because this move solidifies that Brandon March will be the primary center fielder and that Kepler will really take time from both Hays and Rojas. This hurts the Phillies defense, but helps their offense, and Kepler being a good fielder helps make that possible.

Now onto the offense. Kepler is probably best in a platoon, but he isn’t a disaster against lefties like Marsh. He has posted an OPS+ >100 three times in his career (2019, 2020, and 2023) and has long been a player with better underlying numbers than surface. He has plus raw power and we that his underlying numbers are much quieter than his surface stats.

Year	Avg EV	90th Percent EV	Max EV	Chase%	Z-Contact%	Swing%	Whiff% vs Secondary
2021	89.8	105.8	110.8	26.3%	86.6%	44.7%	25.5%
2022	89.1	105	113.8	28.5%	90.0%	46.0%	22.5%
2023	91.9	106.4	111.7	28.5%	89.5%	47.5%	26.2%
2024	88.9	105	115.4	35.3%	87.9%	52.2%	27.3%

For context, both the zone contact and whiff rate vs secondary pitches are at least top quartile over the time period, and at times elite and prior to 2024 his chase rate was at least 78th percentile. The power numbers don’t show any real decline as well. So it is just a one year spike in chase rate. Knowing he had knee tendinitis in mid August and a hip injury prior to that it might be helpful to do a monthly split for last season.

Month	PA	OPS	Chase%	Swing%	Avg EV	Avg LA	Avg Bat Speed
April	49	.670	29.5%	50.2%	90.9	22	71.4
May	95	.891	25.8%	47.7%	90.5	19	72.6
June	84	.517	41.8%	61.3%	89.9	19	71.6
July	83	.760	32.3%	49.5%	87.3	13	70.6
August	84	.583	34.2%	52.9%	87.6	18	70.7
September	4	.000	50.0%	61.1%	83.5	56	68.3

I think we can definitively saw June was a bad month, but otherwise we see things really go bad as we know he is getting hurt. We have no guarantee he will be healthy and that he isn’t in decline, but it is comforting to see a statistical decline tied to something.

At the end of the day, Kepler isn’t a world beater or star. The goal is that he gives the Phillies 450-500 PA and 2-2.5 WAR. If he does that he gives them a solid floor at a position of turnover. There is a chance he can be more, but they also aren’t paying him like they expect that. As for him being left handed and not right. A right handed bat was a much larger priority in a platoon with Marsh or if Alec Bohm was headed out of town. The right handed bats need to step up, but outside of Teoscar there isn’t a big upgrade. Kepler being left handed means that 5 out of 9 hitters in the lineup are on the strong side of the platoon. In Weston Wilson the Phillies also have a ready made platoon partner if needed as opposed to asking the out of options Kody Clemens to handle the strong side duties to a RH bat.

If we go back to the top of the piece, the Phillies are still a Jeff Hoffman replacement short, and while they don’t necessarily need an arm of immediately Hoffman’s caliber, they could really use another arm with that upside in the mix. They still can make moves this offseason, but after expecting change, the Phillies have made an ok pivot to running back the team while keeping their prospect capital and future spending powder dry for when the right move is available.