On Friday night, I made my fourth trip to Lakewood this year to watch Spencer Howard for a second time. This would also be coincidentally the third time I’ve gotten to see the Nationals low A affiliate Hagerstown. The mission for the evening was to see two things: to see if Howard could have a bounce back from his struggles this month and to watch the scorching hot diminutive catcher Rodolfo Duran. Neither would disappoint in Lakewood’s 8-0 win.
Position Player Report
- There has been probably no position player prospect in the system hotter than catcher Rodolfo Duran since the last week of May. And with the month of June drawing to a close, he would have one of his better games during this stretch last night (as the DH), reaching base four times, the first time he’s done that in his career. After working a four pitch walk, he would hit He would end up going 3/3 with a solo shot, and a walk. After working a four pitch walk to load the bases in the first, he hit a chopper up the middle on the first pitch in the fourth inning. In the sixth, with two on and no out he would hit bullet up the middle on a belt high fastball that just eluded a lunging Luis Garcia at short. That loaded the bases and he would come around to score. The next inning he got a 3-1 fastball that cut back over the middle of the plate and he launched one on to the CF concourse. Through May 26th, Duran was hitting a measly .152/.175/.253 with just six extra base hits and a 3/23 BB/K in 104 PA. Since May 27th, Duran’s numbers have been absolutely bonkers: .400/.455/.863, 8 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 8/16 BB/K in 88 plate appearances. He has gone hitless just five times and has racked multiple hits 11 times, racking up his fourth straight such game last night. Duran isn’t the biggest catcher (5’9″, 181) but his arms suggest he might have surprising strength. Couple that that he’s getting his front foot down early with a quick, compact swing and maybe that can explain some of the power surge. Last year watching him at Williamsport, I liked the tools from behind the plate as he was showing good pop times and showed a plus arm. Duran’s upside might be a .270 hitter with a low walk rate and a 20% K while hitting more fringe average power in the big leagues. It’ll be interesting to re-evaluate this further later in the year to see how much of this power over the last month he can sustain. Duran is only 20 years old but is in his fourth year in the organization, so he’s got another year before Rule 5 eligibility is a concern. But of all the catchers playing full season ball right now in the system, Duran has the most upside.
Pitching Report
Spencer Howard has been in a struggle lately, which is surprising since he has the best raw stuff in what has been a dominant Lakewood rotation (Parkinson, Rosso, Jones, Stewart, Young). After posting a 2.89 ERA and a 39/5 K/BB in his first six start (28 IP), his last six took a disastrous turn (8.76 ERA, 27/14 K/BB in 24.2 IP). So like I did with Jhailyn Ortiz a month ago when he was struggling, I thought I check in and see if I could bring a little bit of mojo to Howard by being there. It didn’t start off great as his command was a bit off and he had to work 24 pitches to four batters just to get out of the first inning with no damage. Things were a little better in the second, despite allowing back-to-back singles with one out. He would come back against a pair of lefties with a slider elevated that was chopped to 2B and then a slider chased that dropped out of the zone. After a one out single in the third, Howard would cruise the rest of the way retiring the final 11 batters he faced, six on strikeouts. At 86 pitches (57 strikes), he would have likely went out to start the seventh, but thanks to a six run sixth by the offense, he wouldn’t have to. His final line: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K). Every pitch seemed to work for him after that first inning. His fastball had a little extra life on it then when I last saw him in April, topping at 98 mph, while maintaining 95-97 with some good arm-side run. The command was still a little spotty, but he established himself early in the count with 16 first pitch strikes. His slider (82-87) is still his best pitch, in my opinion, showing real good tilt and sweep. Last night, I thought the feel was average as he threw a few too many yanked/spiked sliders. His curveball (77-81) has shown to be at least average with moderate depth and 11/5 tilt. One thing I was surprised to see was the use of his low 80s (79-83) change-up. At first glance it looks like his breaking ball until it showed a little more arm-side run action and a little less depth. It wasn’t always consistent but it generated weak contact and some swings and misses. The development of his change-up is right now what probably separates him from being an elite arm out of the pen and a #3/#4 starter. After such a promising start to the season that looked like it would lead him to Clearwater at this point, he’ll likely stay in Lakewood barring more starts like last night throughout the month of July.
- 48 fastballs (55.8%), 12 curveballs (14%), 13 sliders (15.1%), 13 change-ups (15.1%)
- 3/10, 3 K (all swinging), three groundouts and one flyout on fastballs
- 0/3, 3 K (two swinging, one looking) on curveballs
- 0/3, 2 K (both swinging), groundout on sliders
- 0/5, 2 K (one looking, one swinging), two groundouts and a pop-up on change-ups
- 16/22 first pitch strikes; ten fastballs, four change-ups, one curveball, one slider; first pitch balls were three curveballs, two fastballs and one slider
- First pitch: 2/4; Ahead 0-1: 0/11, BB, 7 K; Behind 1-0: 1/6, 3 K
- Six groundouts, one flyout, one pop-up
- LH hitters: 1/14, 6 K (four swinging: three fastballs, one slider; two looking: one curve, one change-up); RH hitters: 2/7, BB, 4 K (all swinging: two curve, one change-up, one slider)
- 13 swinging strikes (15.1%); six on fastballs, three on slider, two on change-ups, two on curveballs
- Nine at-bats went five or more pitches (1/8, BB, 5 K); Six at-bats went two or less pitches (2/6)