Last night Phillies manager Gabe Kapler was in Reading to take in 6 innings of minor league baseball. The Fightins set Harold Arauz to the mound to start, but the real reason for Kapler’s (and it looked like from pictures Joe Jordan’s) was apparent when Seranthony Dominguez took the mound for the 6th inning. Dominguez blew away the competition with a 7 pitch 1-2-3 inning with a strikeout and a fastball touching 97 and 98. Kapler left not long after and it was the only inning that Dominguez pitched last night. After a rough first appearance, the 23 year old Dominican righty has been on a roll posting a 10 IP 3 H 1 ER 1 BB 16 K line over his last 6 games. Given these numbers and his stuff, Dominguez invokes some possibly irresponsible comps to another 23 year old right handed reliever making their high minors debut in Reading.
In April 2014, Ken Giles arrived in Reading and torched it. He would reach Lehigh Valley by early May and after having ok numbers there, arrive in the majors on June 12th. Now we know where Giles’ story went from there and we also know the 2014 Phillies and 2018 Phillies are very different teams, but it is fair to look at Giles as a model for how Dominguez’s 2018 season could play out.
Both pitchers were coming off years in which injuries had severely limited them. Giles had oblique injuries and Dominguez a bicep injury. Both got some work in winter ball before showing up to camp and raising eyebrows. Giles threw a bit harder than Dominguez, sitting more 97-99 T100 compared to Dominguez’s 94-98. Giles’ fastball was flatter, whereas Dominguez’s has great life. Between the end of the 2013 regular season and the start of 2014 regular season Giles’ slider had gone from an average to a future plus plus pitch. Dominguez has always had a good slider, but the move to the bullpen has added some velocity as well as made it his primary secondary pitch (he still throws his changeup occassionally). Both pitchers at age 23 were more control than command, though Dominguez’s track record of throwing strikes is longer than Giles’. So arsenal wise, there is not a giant difference, both were electric arms at this stage with late inning upside.
Giles was unhittable in Reading (he allowed 8 hits in 15 innings while striking out 29), it was not fair to opposing batters. Dominguez has started to flash that over his last 3 appearances, logging 50 pitches over 5 perfect innings with 8 strikeouts. We have seen pitchers go on hot runs in the bullpen before, so this is recent run does not mean that Dominguez is not primed for an outing where he walks three batters. However, given his recent stretch it is not impossible we hit the end of April and Dominguez has 3 weeks of dominant starts under his belt. Giles arrived in Lehigh Valley on May 9, that is not a completely unreasonable pace for Dominguez.
Now Giles would only make 11 appearances for the IronPigs before being summoned to the majors. The 2014 bullpen at the time was Jonathan Papelbon, Jake Diekman, and Justin DeFratus. That is much different than the Phillies bullpen that just shut down the Pirates in a 4 game series. Once he reaches AAA, Dominguez will not only need to perform at the higher level, he will need to surpass the existing players in his role. On the positive side, the IronPigs bullpen is not strong in RHPs with Pedro Beato, Ranfi Casimiro, and Jake Thompson all not in the mold of arm that Dominguez profiles as. Right now the Phillies are running with only 1 LHP in the majors so the collection of Hoby Milner, Austin Davis, Brandon Leibrandt, Zac Curtis, and Tom Windle all threaten a major league spot, but all of them are more middle innings or situational arms. That means barring further injuries and the return of Pat Neshek, Dominguez will need to surpass two of Yacksel Rios, Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano, Hector Neris, and Luis Garcia (I am assuming Hunter and Neshek are safe and Hutchison’s spot will go to Mark Leiter Jr once he is healthy). Now not everyone will stay healthy and that group of right handed pitchers have some guys capable of some horrible stretches. A mid June major league debut is probably unrealistic, but if he hits the ground running in AAA, July might be reasonable if things don’t go perfectly in the major league bullpen.
Giles isn’t the only example of a reliever moving fast through the upper minors. In 2015, Edubray Ramos logged 20.1 mediocre innings in Reading at age 22. He opened his age 23 season back in AA, he was promoted to AAA on May 6 after a hot start, and made his major league debut on June 24. Once again the bullpen strength was a factor. It is a slightly different path, but post injury a 22 year old Victor Arano jumped directly from AA to the majors in 2017 and a 24 year old Yacksel Rios only had 13 games in AAA before making his debut last year. The Phillies knew that when they moved Dominguez to the bullpen they might have created a 2018 weapon, and so far that is looking like it might come to fruition.
Great call on promotion to AAA