It’s draft day everybody! Tonight in at 7 pm EST, we find out who the Phillies pick at #3, where many believe this will be the last time in for a while that they pick in a premium position. Unlike in previous years, the first night of the draft will only see the Phillies pick once as they surrendered their second round pick for Carlos Santana. They will also be waiting a bit tomorrow after surrendering their third round pick for signing Jake Arrieta. So they’ll have to wait for another 103 players to go before their next pick in the fourth round and will only have $8,858,500 to spend, limiting their resources. This makes their one and only pick tonight that much more important. And with that, I give you my big board. Last year, I incorporated team philosophy and eliminated the top five into some of my thinking. But considering how high the Phillies are this year, this is essentially who I think is the best talent of the draft. Let’s dive in!
- Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
- Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (AZ)
- Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State
- Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
- Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Oregon St
- Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech
- Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gaille HS (FL)
- Jonathan India, 3B, Florida
- Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama
- Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha HS (WI)
Casey Mize is still the best prospect in this draft to me, even though the wide margin got a little closer to me in recent weeks. Mize had a really good outing on Saturday vs Army in the early stages of the NCAA Tournament, but he got hit around his last few starts in the SEC. His fastball wasn’t as effective and he hung some of his secondary offerings in those starts, but I would still take his arsenal, polish and mechanics over any other pitcher in this draft. He will also be a fast track prospect to the majors.
While the presumption is he won’t go in the top 5, Liberatore is the second best prospect in my view and the best high school prospect in the draft. He’s never regressed from his dominant summer and while his velocity has varied (showing 94-96 mph early in spring, sitting mostly 89-93), he’s incredibly polished for his age commanding his fastball to both sides of the plate, changing tempo and finishing opponents off with a wipeout curve. His change-up is also a potential above-average pitch and he’s in the process of adding a slider. While he’s not as good as Mackenzie Gore (as everybody seems to point out), he’s got frontline starter potential, all the same.
Going through more video of Bohm the last week convinced me that if he is the Phillies pick (as most think he will be), then it will be a mighty fine pick. He ended up getting closer to Liberatore and might have been #2 on my list if it weren’t for the questions I have about his defense. I’m actually not like most people who think he’ll have to move positions early in his career. I actually think he can handle third base and play a 45-50 grade defense, which will be more than adequate for the type of offense he is projected to produce. He will more than likely be up at some point in 2019 if he becomes that.
The next three were probably pretty obvious because they have all been expected to go in the top five for the last month. But over the course of the last couple of weeks, it’s been a struggle to put them in order because each have obvious flaws that give me cause for pause. In the end, Singer ended up jumping ahead in this group despite the mechanical concerns I have going forward. His fastball movement/command and plus slider could have him in the majors quickly, but he’ll have to develop his change-up in order to be the future #2/3 he can potentially be. Madrigal’s just a gamer and his plus-plus hit tool, speed and versatility is valuable in this day and age of the game. And if it weren’t for the lack of power, he might be the truly competing to go #1 overall. While Bart has been high quality behind the plate and has premium power for the position he plays, he’s pretty vulnerable to the strikeout and I expect him to struggle to hit.
The backend of the top 10 are players I wouldn’t expect the Phillies to draft, but they are intriguing nonetheless. I have Stewart as the best of this group. I actually like the mechanics for his 6’6″ frame, and his curveball can be just as good as Liberatore’s. He might be higher on this list, but he kind of jumped more on the radar this spring for me after adding more velocity to sit in the low 90s and touch 97-98 and his secondary offering can get away from him. I needed probably to see a little more but all the tools are there to match Liberatore. I do like the improvement of India and he does have a somewhat better shot to stay at 3B than Bohm, but I do see some holes in his swing and he tends to swing and miss more than Bohm. Among this group of four, Swaggerty is the only name in the last month I’ve heard connected to the Phillies. I’m not really a fan of his swing as I think he overstrides and I don’t see the power potential and even though he shows patience, I think he’ll swing and miss more against better competition. He might be another Adam Haseley-type of pick. Kelenic I could argue is better than Swaggerty, but because of the weather in his area, it was tough to get new information. But I love the swing and the instincts he displayed during the showcases and for Team USA last year, that he never really dropped off my radar. He might have been higher on the list if it weren’t for weather holding back some of the potential highlights this spring, so there’s some unknown.
So where will the Phillies go tonight? Will they go with the guy they have been connected to for over a month? Will they divert and go with another top notch college performer like the Florida ace or the Oregon St diminutive monster? Will the best prospect in the draft inconceivably fall to them? Or will they shock everyone and dive into the high school ranks and try to save money? Turne in tonight and remember to check out the Draft Page for every Phillies pick, daily recaps, past Draft Philes and more. Happy drafting everybody!