On Monday night the Phillies took Alec Bohm with the third overall pick. It would then feel like an eternity before we would see them pick another player. In fact they would watch 103 draft picks go by, before they would make their first selection on day two of the MLB Draft. But as Almaraz has liked to point out in recent weeks, their second and third round picks this year were Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta, so I guess that’s a fair trade. The Phillies entered the draft with $8,858,500 to spend and could go 5% over without having to sacrificing their first round pick next year (though they will be taxed 75% on the overage regardless). So that translates to roughly around $9.3 million that the Phillies could spend up to. Bohm’s slot value of a little over $6.9 million is expected to eat up most of that, but there is a chance the Phillies might cut a small deal to save anywhere between $250-750K. So the Phillies have around $2 million potentially to spend.
The expectation entering the day was that they were going to target a number of college pitchers. And similar to last year’s draft, they would find a way to save some bonus money potentially from rounds eight to ten by selecting international talent or college seniors. This would allow them to spend overslot in the first couple of rounds of day three and convince high school seniors and college sophomores/juniors to go pro. Well, it didn’t really go that way and instead we ended up getting some intriguing teenagers. So let’s go through the seven selections from Tuesday.
4th Round, #107: Colton Eastman, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (#75 Baseball America, #98 MLB)
The Phillies have had two different affinities in recent years: Dallas Baptist bats (David Martinelli, Austin Listi, Darick Hall) and Cal Sate Fullerton arms (Thomas Eshelman, Connor Seabold). For the second straight year, the Phillies first pick on the second day of the draft was another Titans’ arm. Eastmon is a strike-thrower and while he doesn’t have huge walk totals (2.34 BB/9), he doesn’t have the same precision as his predecessors (Eshelman 0.43 BB/9; Seabold 1.41). Part of me wonders if some of this has to do with his high 3/4 arm action, while as Eshelman and Seabold both throw from a lower 3/4 arm action. At the same time Eastman’s secondary offering have a lot more spin and fade on them than his the other two Titan alums, creating just slightly more walks. Eastman has about the same velocity as his former teammate Conor in the 89-92 range. Eastman’s best pitch might be his curveball, which shows a lot of spin the upper 70s and looks like a real swing and miss pitch. His change-up (80-81) has shown above-average in the past with cut and fade, but it looked just a bit inconsistent in 2018 video. Like the other two in the system, Eastman’s ceiling is that of a back-end starter, but I like his chances better of reaching that than the other two because of what his secondary offerings bring to the table.
5th Round, #137: Matt Vierling, OF, Notre Dame
After scuffling his freshman year, Vierling showed a lot more of an all around hitting game in 2017 hitting .330 with a .219 ISO. But he ended up regressing a bit in power this year, coming down to a .195 ISO, while dropping 20 points in his batting average (which had more to do with the 54 point drop in BABIP). While not alarming it only tells me that he might not be more than a fringe-average power hitter at the next level at best. A little tough to find recent quick video on Vierling, but in video from a couple of years ago, his bat seemed to just drag behind and he was late on top velocity. In a highlight or two I found of him recently, he has seemed to quicken that up just a bit by becoming more compact. While he did okay in 2016 in the Northwoods League (.276, .711 OPS) but didn’t show much pop (.060 ISO). Last summer, he struggled mightily in the Cape Cod striking out at a 26.8% clip and hitting .118 in 112 PA. Vierling feels like a reach pick for a college junior without much upside. Perhaps the Phillies find a way to save a little here from the $390K assigned to the slot
6th Round, #167: (Kendall) Logan Simmons, SS, Tattnall Square Academy (GA) (#226 Baseball America)
The Phillies last year selected one high school player in the first ten rounds around this point. So it wasn’t much of a surprise they may have wanted to take small detour to take a high school talent of Simmons caliber. Of the three bats drafted today, Simmons is will probably bring the most intrigue because of the natural power he possesses. I would probably rate his raw power at a 60. The issue is that you can kind of see his mechanics aren’t really in sync with each other at times and he doesn’t have that quick twitch that will help him make a little more consistent contact. Defensively, even with decent hands and an above-average arm, he will probably have to move to third base as he continues to fill out his frame. Bottomline, he probably will be a player with a low batting average and strike out in a third of his at-bats if he doesn’t improve. Maybe there is a little bit of an overpay here because of the potential, just to bump him closer to in between 5th and 6th round round ($292K) value to let’s say an extra $30-40K.
7th Round, #197: Gabriel Cotto, LHP, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
The Phillies really took a turn here going after a project like Cotto, but the frame and pitch mix looks really nice. The pitch that stood out the most to me was his slider, which looks like it has a good tight spin on it. The depth varies a little bit currently, but if the depth is on the deeper end, it could be a real swing miss pitch. The fastball looks crisp and has a little arm-side run, but is sitting in 89-90 range in terms of velocity according to Jonathan Mayo. As he fills out and makes some tweaks to his mechanics to gain more velocity, I would expect him to be able to sit comfortably in the 91-93 range, touching 95-96. He also throws a sinker and a change-up with a little bit of fade but neither look too sharp currently. The delivery is really free and easy and with the potential to fill out his really good looking 6’5″ frame (currently listed at 175 lb), Cotto has the potential look of a mid-rotation starter. The issue with determining that is the little information on him currently in terms of game and BP film and velocity. Chances are the Phillies pay him at least half the current slot value as I don’t expect them to only offer him let’s say only a third of it.
8th Round, #227: Seth Lancaster, SS, Coastal Carolina
Enter the college senior savings! Lancaster is an interesting senior as he has been up and down all four years at Coastal Carolina. After minimal impact in limited at-bats his freshman year, he would be a key force in the Chanticleers run to an NCAA Championship, hitting .326 with a .966 OPS and walking as often as he struck out (40/42). He would struggle in his junior year, striking out more and hitting more less power. In his senior year, he would rebound big hitting 19 home runs (though in a hitter friendly environment). The power has never truly been there before, but he apparently had Lasik eye surgery so that could have contributed. I like the swing a little bit as he gets his front foot down early and gets good separation to generate solid extension to pull the ball with power. There are times where his hips fly open a bit too soon and the length in his swing does cause a bit of a swing and miss in his game (career 20.3% K), but he has shown tremendous amounts of discipline (17.2% BB) to perhaps be an intriguing versatile bench bat in the future.
9th Round, #257: Dominic Pipkin, RHP, Pinole Valley HS (CA) (#104 Baseball America, #92 MLB)
This is where Matt and I kind of just were shocked. We thought for sure the Phillies would go for maybe three straight college seniors and then pick an an overslot high school player in the 11th round, just like they did last year with Jake Holmes. But the Phillies didn’t waste the opportunity and let this projectable California prep arm slip by. Pipkin has a very nice projectable frame (6’4″, 170 lb) to continue to add more velocity to a fastball that currently sits in the low 90s with a little arm-side run. There were points last summer where scouts had him touching 95-96, so clearly as time goes on he has a chance to be sitting in the 94-96 range. Pipkin throws a breaking ball (looks more like a curve) with good depth and moderate spin, but it flashes plus when he gets it more consistent. His change-up look slightly behind his fastball and breaker as he has more of a straight up and down change and currently looks average when thinking about separation from his fastball. The delivery is pretty slow with a big leg kick, inconsistent landing spot, and 3/4 arm action. His command and control don’t look good at the moment but he has the chance to have two above average pitches and a third average offering to make him a #3/4 type of starter.
10th Round, #287: Madison Stokes, 3B, South Carolina
Stokes was probably the least inspiring pick of the day. In his first three years he posted an OPS no higher than .753 and an ISO no higher than .115. In his final year he posted decent numbers, launching ten home runs while hitting .342 with a 1.033 OPS and .267 ISO. The issue for him is that he will likely be a regular strikeout candidate (22.5% career K) and he offers little of anything else. He feels more like a career minor league infield depth guy than a college senior who could surprisingly reach the majors. The purpose of this pick was to save a ton of money by offering Stokes $5-10K.
So day two of the draft saw the Phillies draft two intriguing projectable high school pitchers, a teenager with plus raw power, and a couple decent college performers (Eastman, Lancaster). So as we enter the final day for the final 30 picks of the draft, what will be the strategy? Well for starts, the Phillies can offer a maximum of $125K to any prospect in this round without having to dive in their bonus pool money, so I would expect the Phillies to offer that max to maybe a number of college sophomores/juniors and high school seniors to maximize their potential this year with limited resources. What will be interesting is the first couple of rounds of the day. The Phillies appear like they will go over a little overslot with Simmons and a lot for Pipkin. The two college seniors are likely to save them at least $300K (based on previous history). There’s probably another $100K at least to be saved from Cotto and maybe $50-100K from Vierling. So even with all that, I would expect most of the dollars saved today to go to Pipkin and Simmons So if the Phillies come out today and go high school with their first pick, that means they might have found a way to cut at least $500K with Bohm. Today is all about finding intriguing depth pieces that could eventually turn into something. Top performers in the system this year like Will Stewart, Kyle Young, Kyle Dohy, Austin Listi and Darick Hall are just some of the names taken on the third day of the draft in the Johnny Almaraz era. You never know what hidden treasures might be in store.