Draft Philes 2018: Bohm’s Away

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  1. In what maybe likely there final top 10 pick for a while and not owning a second and third round pick, the Phillies needed to get this one right. There were a number of options they could have went and really any choice they chose from my top five on my big board would have been good. And after nearly a month of speculation and a weekend of posturing, the Phillies ended up taking the player that many believed they were projected to take in Wichita State third baseman Alec Bohm. The Phillies first round trends in the Johnny Almaraz era has been to take the player with the a future plus hit tool. They haven’t had much success thus far with the first two guys (Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak). Last year’s top pick (Adam Haseley) looks like he’s going to be fine, even with only 15-20 HR power potentially. And let’s not forget that they picked Scott Kingery in the second round in 2015 with that type of approach as well and he’s up in the majors, even if he hasn’t produced at a high level yet.

In Bohm, this is the first high pick position player the Phillies have selected who has the projected combination of plus power and a plus approach at the plate. He has tremendous plate coverage and can hit for power to all fields. His swing in some ways is Kris Bryant-like, and is fairly linear and driven to hit for more contact than trying to drive the ball over the fence. Which makes the fact he hit 16 home runs this year even more impressive because that shows how strong his hands are right now. His load looks a little stiff and he could maybe loosen that up a bit to take advantage of his power even more, in addition to adding just a bit of weight.

During his collegiate career he showed tremendous discipline posting a 10.7% BB and 11.6% K. While the competition he faced at Wichita State wasn’t elite, the production he posted during the last two summers with wood bats against the best college pitchers are incredibly encouraging. In the Coastal Plain League after his freshman year, he hit .330 with 11 HR and a .959 OPS. Last summer in the Cape Cod, he hit .351 with five homers and a .912 OPS. During those two summers, he posted an 8.4% BB and a 12.9% K over 404 plate appearances.

Almaraz on Bohm:

While I had some disagreements on how he projected Haseley’s power after last year’s draft, I’m right there with him when talking about Bohm’s peak potential. I think if I were being conservative about it, he might be more of a .280/.370/.550, 35+ 2B, 30 HR type of player at his peak. Certainly the potential to be a perennial All-Star, if he sticks at third base, which Almaraz also talked about:

While many have mentioned that Bohm may have to switch to first base in the future, Almaraz bringing up the corner outfield spots would bring some interesting versatility. Bohm is not really a burner but he’s a fringe average athlete that currently would rate a bit higher on the speed scale than Hoskins or Franco. So I could see the potential of him being able to handle 1B/3B/LF/RF as Almaraz said. But because of the broad frame, there’s some concern that when he adds a little extra weight to help tap into that power even more that he’ll lose some of that athleticism pushing him to first base eventually. But I honestly think that Bohm can stick at third regardless. He doesn’t have top notch arm strength for someone his size and the footwork can be choppy, but the tools are there for him to be adequate at the position and I think the Phillies will work with him diligently to make sure he gets to that level. But this pick is all about the bat.

So where does Bohm rank right now in the system? Well for starters, he’s not #1 as that title is being firmly grasped by Sixto Sanchez. While Adam Haseley has been hot recently, I still don’t see the power projection that would vault him over top of Bohm as the best position player prospect in the system. So the question is is he better than Adonis Medina to be the second best prospect in the system? To me the answer is yes. Medina is scuffling a bit this year, but his stuff and control still project as a #3 type starter. But Bohm’s bat has the chance to be closer to All-Star level if he taps into his raw power just a bit more.

I expect Bohm to sign close to the designated slot value of the #3 pick of $6,947,500. There is a chance that the Phillies cut a deal and save upwards to $500,000 because of the potential projected drop to the bottom of the top ten, but I expect them to be creative in saving dollars elsewhere than cutting cash from their top pick. Bohm’s journey could begin in Lakewood once he signs because of the how special the bat. It would also free up last year’s 11th round pick Jake Holmes to play 3B everyday in Williamsport as Matt mentioned to me. For the last high pick we might see for a bit, the Phillies nailed it.

So what’s next as we head in to rounds three to ten today? Well as mentioned earlier, the Phillies won’t have a pick until we get to the fourth round at pick #107. Again they could angle to save money on Bohm, and/or save money by drafting college seniors in towards the end of day two. Remember last year the Phillies saved over $410,000 by draft Jhordany Mezquita and college seniors (Zoellner, Brogdan) in rounds 8-10. By offering them anywhere between $5,000-$50,000 in similar fashion, they could save almost $400,000 from that. And they can go about 5% over their bonus pool, which is another $440,000. And if Bohm does get them some discount, they could be over a million in savings. There will probably be a few guys who could be available where the Phillies could offer a little more money, potentially keeping players away from college. I think they will either go get a top notch talent in the fourth or fifth round or they spread the wealth around in day three and get a number of high school projects. One thing we do know based on TV interview last week with Gregg Murphy, is that they do want to put some emphasis on college pitching. Here are some prospects to keep an eye on day two early:

  • Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
  • Konnor Pilkington, RHP, Mississippi St
  • Sean Wymer, RHP, TCU
  • Alex Mckenna, OF, Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
  • Blake Rivera, RHP, Wallace St CC
  • Raynel Delgado, INF, Calvary Christian Academy (FL)
  • Terrin Vavra, SS, Minnesota
  • Blaine Knight, RHP, Arkansas
  • Steven Gingery, LHP, Texas Tech
  • Mike Siani, OF, Penn Charter (PA)