The Phillies claimed Bradley Zimmer off waivers from the Blue Jays, he takes the active roster spot of Brandon Marsh and 40 man spot of Bryce Harper (who is really only renting out his spot for the next two weeks). Bradley Zimmer is bad. He has been on the Blue Jays all season, and has 87 plate appearances in 77 games, and an OPS+ of 28, which feels generous given the .105/.209/.237 batting line. He has occasionally been mediocre against RHPs in his career, but on the whole Zimmer is a terrible offensive baseball player. But he happens to play center field and the Phillies don’t have healthy outfielders, let alone center fielders.
Twitter user @DisgruntledPhan in the middle of what was probably not the most polite chain of responses and quote tweets (my interjection of impoliteness), asked the question:
Why not Guthrie?
This of course is Dalton Guthrie, the 26 year old center fielder for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs who entered today hitting .284/.353/.457 and is in the middle of a very good last 3 months. Guthrie is not on the 40 man roster currently.
This got me thinking and shooting off Twitter responses, but it is actually an interesting question because Bradley Zimmer is very much not an answer to the question “how do the Phillies deal with their center field hole?”. He should be a stop gap, and the question of him vs Guthrie comes down to the answer to a bunch of different questions that we (the public) don’t know the answers to, and the Phillies might not actually know either. So let’s go through the chain of questions.
How long is Brandon Marsh out for?
The Phillies put Marsh on the 10 day IL today retroactive to 8/17, so he can come back on 8/26 I believe, so 9 days and 10 games at minimum. Given the optimism it feels like he will be closer to that number, but for now let’s branch this two paths; near the minimum number of games and a sizeable number of games around a month. If the answer is the second then you need to find a long term solution, if it is the first then you need to survive a couple of days and you are probably living with Matt Vierling playing a lot, which does also get into the next question.
When can Kyle Schwarber play the outfield?
As long as Kyle Schwarber is DH-ing you need to field two outfielders, which seems to be that Nick Maton is playing left field. If it is just the Mets series or part of the Mets series (maybe he gets a game in LF) then you are putting that strain on having both Maton and Vierling in the lineup for a couple of days (even though it does include the double header). If Schwarber is at DH for a while, then you really need a player who can play multiple days a week. Maybe that guy is here…
Can Nick Maton play the outfield? Can Nick Maton play center field?
It is a really big question without a provable answer, because he has not really done it. He didn’t embarrass himself the last two days in left field, but left is not center. Maton has the physical tools to be at least a Vierling level defender, but he hasn’t actually done it. The Phillies might need to see if Maton can do it, without knowing if he can.
This gets to the cost of the two moves in question “calling up Guthrie” and “claiming Bradley Zimmer”.
The cost of claiming Zimmer is practically nothing. I believe I saw the waiver claim cost was $50,000 and then he is yours as long as you make a 40 man spot. Because he is a waiver claim and bad, the downside cost on Zimmer is you designate him for assignment and move on. In terms of opportunity cost, Zimmer might have only been available today, so you don’t really have time to think about it. All this means is that the Phillies could cut Zimmer tomorrow and just be out an amount of cash not meaningful to the big league club (but more than a minor leaguer makes in a year).
When it comes to Guthrie, he is Rule 5 eligible this offseason, so if the team does like him, they will need to make a 40 man decision at some point (that could be that they like him, are fine losing him if a team wants to commit to him, but would like him as depth). The cost of adding him to the 40 now is that if you do like him you are committing that spot to him, meaning you will need to cut someone else when Harper gets back. If you need the spot he sits in you risk losing him on waivers that are much less restrictive than Rule 5. If the answer to the above questions is that Marsh will be out for a while, you need 2 outfielders because you want to DH Schwarber more, and you don’t think Maton can play center field, then the risk detailed above might be fine. If the answer is that Marsh will be back in 9 days and Schwarber will be playing left field vs the Reds next week, then the opportunity to have Guthrie play a couple of times might not be worth the 40 man spot. The opportunity cost is also nothing today, the Phillies could call up Guthrie tomorrow and no opportunity has passed them by.
In the end, Zimmer is not a solution, but on waivers today he gives them a second player who they know can play center field if something bad happens. That gives them a chance to get a feel for the timelines on Marsh and Schwarber. If their timelines change, the Phillies plans can change. They also can see what they want to do with Nick Maton. If he can play center, then the needs from Zimmer’s roster spot changes. If he cannot then maybe you need to find a more permanent solution. It is important to remember that Darick Hall came up 3 days after Harper went on the IL, and they used that spot to claim Oscar Mercardo in the immediate aftermath of the injury. Sometimes you make the move that presents itself so you can play the next day, and then make your changes as you get more information.