BP Phillies Top 10 Set Blueprint for Offseason Phillies Lists

In many years there are set to be surprises when the first prospect lists of the year come out. This year expect the lists to much more predictable in terms of names with some minor differences in terms of order. Today the first big list came out with Baseball Prospectus publishing their Phillies Top 10 prospect list. The list is behind the paywall here. Because of that I am only going to touch on the names and surface details, if you want to read further about what the opinions of their staff are, I encourage you to pay them for the work they have put into writing and researching the list.

The list itself:

1. J.P. Crawford
2. Jorge Alfaro
3. Nick Williams
4. Mickey Moniak
5. Franklyn Kilome
6. Adonis Medina
7. Sixto Sanchez
8. Roman Quinn
9. Cornelius Randolph
10. Choose Your Own Adventure: Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Dylan Cozens, Kevin Gowdy

There is also a writeup of Arquimedes Gamboa, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Jose Pujols.

It is pretty clear there are three groups here in this ranking. There is the 1 to 5 group that are pretty well settled where they are with Crawford #1, Alfaro #2, Kilome #5, and then Williams and Moniak in some order. I can see a scenario where Quinn jumps into this group, but it also takes a level of pretending that he never gets hurt. After that the next 4 join to make a group of 9 that I would not say need to represent 1 to 9 (they do not on my list right now), but they need to be in the Top 10 to 11 or so on a list. The order of Sanchez, Medina, Quinn, and Randolph really comes down to personal preference. If you are more risk accepting, then Quinn and Sanchez move up the list. If you want more advanced tool sets you might favor Medina and Randolph for things like their pitchability and hit tool.

We then get to this next group, those that BP put in for their 10th spot on the list. I don’t think that they are necessarily locked into that back of the list spot (full disclosure as of right now I personally have Gowdy #9, a spot ahead of Medina). However, what makes this group separate from the previous 9 is how divisive they are. I am also going to expand this group to include Nick Pivetta and Andrew Knapp because they fit the same mold. Gowdy is the only one of the group not in AA or AAA, and he finds himself here because his track record is so small and he is so far away from the majors. If you are risk accepting then his profile matches up very well with Medina, Sanchez, and Kilome, but that is not a choice I can make for others. The other players are all right on the cusp of the majors and come with their own flaws. Kingery plays a premium defensive position, but he has no fall back if he can’t hit and has a limited ceiling due to limited power. Dylan Cozens does not lack for power, but his swing and miss coupled with huge problems vs lefties leave a lot of questions about where he will hit enough to be a major leaguer. Rhys Hoskins shows a solid hit tool and the ability to make adjustments, but his power is not as prodigious as Cozens (though I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way on him regarding that), but also he is a first baseman and will have to maximize everything he has at the plate. I throw Nick Pivetta into the discussion because his raw stuff gives him the ability to mid rotation starter, but his continued lack of changeup and fringy command mean that a bullpen future is likely, and even if he is good in that role it is a hit to his value. Andrew Knapp is similar to Kingery in many ways, up the middle player, but he lacks a fallback option because his bat does not work anywhere else, he finds himself at the bottom of this tier though because his glove is not of the caliber of Kingery.

After you get through that group we get into lottery ticket and safe/boring players. BP touched on two guys they like in Gamboa and Ortiz, both of whom are far away with big risks, but huge upside. The topic of Jose Pujols is also addressed, and the report is very negative, which really touches on the problem with Pujols. The upside is crazy because of his body and existing power, but his flaws are all potentially fatal enough that I cannot argue against the opinion written, even if I do not agree with it. It would take too long to name all of the guys in this group, which is why I will save it for the Top 50.

Overall the Baseball Prospectus list is our first peek at what should be a set of predictable offseason lists, which is fine because the talent on the list is very good. With that I will leave you with the last piece of optimism the Phillies 25 and Under list. Again don’t dwell too much on the order, just appreciate that it only goes 5 prospects deep and doesn’t include Tommy Joseph (not enough room) and Jerad Eickhoff (just a bit too old).

1. Odubel Herrera
2. J.P. Crawford
3. Vincent Velasquez
4. Aaron Nola
5. Jorge Alfaro
6. Nick Williams
7. Maikel Franco
8. Mickey Moniak
9. Jake Thompson
10. Franklyn Kilome