Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from New Jersey, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Baseball Prospectus, Crashburn Alley, Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.

Dylan Cozens and the Deception of MiLB Splits

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As minor league fans we grasp for hope and improvement in minor league players, and we often grasp on to little pieces of information in an effort to make sense of the chaos.  This ranges from singular scouting reports from a singular person on a singular day or series* to a set of splits on a stats page.  We are just looking for narrative and meaning.  The player that has risen to the top of the narrative pile is Phillies Low-A right fielder Dylan Cozens.

*This is the nature of scouting and why multiple looks and context are important parts of the entire evaluation process.

The narrative coming out of the season was that Cozens built on first half successes into an outstanding second half, and from the surface if we take the triple slash line that looks fairly accurate.

BA OBP SLG
1st Half 0.229 0.282 0.403
2nd Half 0.267 0.324 0.426

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The Past Week 11-7-2014

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The Past Week: Baseball Prospect Top 10 Phillies Prospect List (my reaction) Phillies MiLB Free Agents – Phillies Minor Thoughts Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels – Phillies Minor Thoughts (Pt 1 and Pt 2) Offseason Mailbag #1 – Phillies Minor Thoughts Roman Quinn in the AFL (Jordan Gorosh, Ethan Purser, Todd Gold) – … Read more

Phillies MiLB Free Agents

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Baseball America put out their comprehensive list of minor league free agents today.  The Phillies have a decent amount of players up for free agency.  For the most part players that reach minor league free agency have little in the way of ceiling left.  Occasionally some guys slip through with a ceiling of being a contributor … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels

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You can find part 1 of this series (Surplus Value) here and part 2 (Valuing Prospects) here Now that we have the basic theory of surplus value it is time to determine what Cole Hamels is actually worth.  Dave Cameron has contended that there isn’t more than $5,000,000 in surplus value in the contract.  The Phillies … Read more

Offseason Phillies Prospect Mailbag #1

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The World Series over, free agency starts soon, and prospect rankings are upon us.  So what better time than now to answer your questions about the Phillies minor leagues.

Jason Polinsky (@Jay_Poozle) If you could trade Dom for a hypothetical top 100 prospect, would you?

Yes and not even close.  I like Brown’s potential, but even if he turns it around you only have 3 arb years of control left.  I will take my chances on a player with less upside for those 3 years of pre-arb control.  If I thought Brown could guarantee me close to average regular production (~2 WAR) it is a different story, he just has too much risk.

Adam Dembowitz (@adamd243) Gimme all you got on Tommy Joseph.

Joseph has plus raw power and a plus arm and a lot of fringy other things.  I was really encouraged by his brief healthy time in AA this year where he hit .282/.345/.551 over 21 games.  There is a non-zero chance he could be a regular behind the plate, but on top of the much talked about concussions he has missed dev time to other injuries.  His attitude was apparently very poor in the GCL as he dealt with the frustration from the injured wrist.  In a perfect world, Joseph provide fringe average defense behind the plate, hits 15-20 HRs with a half decent walk rate and a .240 batting average, that is a really solid player.  I wouldn’t give him up for nothing, but you can’t really count on anything either.

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The Past Week 10-31-2014

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The Past Week(s):

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Top 50 Prospects – Player Pool

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This week I sent out the first draft of the Top 50 to a group of people for initial review.  The list itself will go through significant revisions between now and when it is released this spring.  What has been narrowed down is the main player pool I am working with.  There is a lot of names here to discuss, feel free to debate overall and within the positional groupings.

Catcher:

Andrew Knapp
Cameron Rupp
Deivi Grullon
Gabriel Lino
Jesus Posso
Lenin Rodriguez
Tommy Joseph

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Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 2 – Valuing Prospects

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To read part 1 on Surplus Value go here

Based on the set up of this site and everything I have written before, you can tell I like prospects, and at times I have immersed myself too much into prospects.  However, the access to minor league information and the number of people and sites covering it has led us to have a very twisted view of the world of prospects.  We now have entered a world where we simultaneously over and under value prospects based entirely on hype that we generate and demand.  We expect great things immediately from prospects because we have been spoiled by recent successes, and we call players busts well before they have had time to adjust to the majors.

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Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 1 – Surplus Value

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Until he is traded the speculation around Phillies ace LHP  Cole Hamels will never end.  What has played out over the past 3 months has been a battle at the core of WAR and prospects and how we value players in trades.  In many ways the debate as left me questioning the models we use for WAR and whether we are truly advancing the game forward with how we use statistics in analysis.  I got into writing because of statistics, I majored in Physics because of my love of numbers, but I have learned something through the process, if you live in a world purely of numbers and idealized scenarios you lose your grasp on reality.  In an ideal world we marry numbers and observation to further what questions we can ask about the game and create a more vibrant discussion.  Over the next few days I am going to break through some parts of the Hamels trade speculation and what kind of return the Phillies feel like they should get vs what the media and fan are saying they should review

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