Prospect evaluations are constantly changing and shifting as more information becomes available. A month of baseball (particularly a cold on in the northeast) is not enough to make or break a career. However, that does not mean that information is not gained during that time. With that in mind, I am going to use the preseason Top 50 as a quick list for a look around the system at how players are doing in the first month. Note this does not mean this is a current ranking.
- Mick Abel – Abel is doing Abel things. His fastball has been mostly 95-98 with some fading on his deeper outings. His slider is still his best secondary pitch, but his changeup is not a slouch either. He struggled with feel for his fastball at times hitting 4 batters so far, but his control has been much better with 3 walks to 23 strikeouts in 14 innings. He still looks like one of the best pitching prospects in the minors and potential front line starting pitcher.
- Andrew Painter – The reports of Painter’s breakout in Instructs have now been confirmed. He is mostly sitting 95-98 with his fastball, but has gotten very close to officially touching 100. His fastball shape is better and he can dominate low-A on the pitch alone. His slider is his best secondary pitch, and he has shown impressive command for his level. He has not featured his changeup or curveball much so far. Painter offers slightly less impressive pitches than Abel and McGarry, but that might be a trait he shares with almost every other pitching prospect in baseball. He looks like he could be a front end starting pitcher.
- Bryson Stott – Stott’s Spring Training showed the positives of what he could be, but major league pitchers quickly identified some his obvious weaknesses, including fastballs up in the zone, and before he got a chance to adjust he got parked on the bench and then to AAA. I personally don’t have a change of opinion on Stott, but he definitely lost a bit of his national spotlight shine during his rocky start.
- Johan Rojas – It has been a not ideal start the season for Rojas. He has shown a good approach at the plate with a career high walk rate (12.8%) and a solid strikeout rate (15.1%), but otherwise things have been lacking. He is hitting .189/.294/.230 on the season thanks to a .041 ISO and .230 BABIP. Both are definitely affected by the Jersey Shore in April being a miserable place, but he also is not consistently making hard contact. There have been some questions about pitch recognition back to his time in complex, and he is going to need to make improvements there. He does continue to be fearless on the bases (14 for 14) and a great center field defender. There is no reason to panic yet, but it certainly has not been a month of warm fuzzy feelings.
- Logan O’Hoppe – O’Hoppe is hitting .274/.400/.452 with a 13.3% BB% and 14.7% K%, it isn’t blow your doors off numbers, but the K% shows the continued trends from 2021 and the walk rate shows the AFL gains. Maybe some more power comes from Reading as the season goes on, but there is no reason to be anything but pleased with O’Hoppe’s 2022.
- Griff McGarry – It has been 3 appearances (and short ones at that because of a Spring Training injury), but McGarry continues to show growth. His command looks better, and he is still 96-98 with explosive movement, and his slider is at least plus. He likely has the best raw stuff in the system, the question remaining is whether it all holds together in the upper minors on a normal workload. If it does, he could be a front end starting pitcher in not a long time from now.
- Luis Garcia – Garcia’s numbers are ghastly, but it is 9 games and then an injury that might keep him out for a bit. No real big judgements to make unless he is out for much of the season.
- Ethan Wilson – Much like the rest of the Jersey Shore team, Wilson has had a rough start. His walk and strikeout rates aren’t ideal, but not a disaster. His 3 XBHs in 18 games is a bit of a red flag, and also not entirely surprising given he has been hitting the ball into the ground at a prestigious rate. On a positive note, he is 10 for 10 on stolen bases, and like mentioned with Rojas, a lot of people have struggled in Jersey Shore/Lakewood in April.
- Matt Vierling – Matt Vierling is still hitting the ball hard on the ground. There are the raw materials to be better than a 4th OF, and certainly better than he has been, but his current results justifiably have him on the short side of a platoon.
- Simon Muzziotti – Muzziotti didn’t even play a game for Reading before being summoned to the majors, he played sparingly, and then was sent back to AA where he is now out with a minor injury. Not ideal for a guy who needs to play baseball games.
- Erik Miller – The Phillies have functionally move Miller to multi inning relief on a larger rest timeframe with the goal of keeping him healthy and pitching well. So far the results have been very positive (10 IP 4 H 1 ER 3 BB 15 K). Right now this isn’t a role that has a major league analog, so eventually they will need to either move him to a starter workload or a reliever cadence, but for now it is a very positive step after a lot of roadblocks.
- Hao Yu Lee – Lee doesn’t put up the biggest exit velocities on the Thresher’s squad, but he hits the ball as consistently as anyone. He is hitting well (.279/.355/.368), but isn’t lighting the world on fire. That said he just turned 19 and has very little playing experience in the US. The most interesting part of his year is that for a guy most thought was 2B only, he has 12 of his 17 starts at shortstop so far.
- Jordan Viars – Viars has been out with an ankle injury, but we should see him back soon.
- Hans Crouse – Crouse looked very poor in Spring Training with lower velocity and erratic command. He was not very good in his 3 AAA starts and is now on the IL with a minor injury. It is too early to bury him, but there are a bunch of red flags.
- Micah Ottenbreit – It has been a shaky start for the Phillies 2021 4th round pick, with Ottenbreit making two starts before ending up on the development list. The velocity gains have not come yet, and his command has been poor, but it is still very early.
- Francisco Morales – The Phillies moved Morales to the bullpen full time and it really could not have gone better. His fastball and slider look sharp, and he currently has a season line of 13.1 IP 2 H 0 R 5 BB 22 K with with 4 of the walks coming in one appearance. He should move to AAA soon, and the next big hurdle will be pitching on back to back days. Looks like a high leverage reliever with potential multiple inning utility.
- Jhailyn Ortiz – Ortiz is striking out at a high rate and hitting balls a far way. If Ortiz continues to run a K rate near 40% it will be a problem, but it is only 81 PA so far, and if he can get that back closer to his normal 30%, he continues to be very interesting.
- Yhoswar Garcia – If you were worried about Yhoswar’s ability to hit, his start to the season will not reassure you. He is showing the ability to hit the ball harder, but not consistently, or in the air. Aggressive is an understatement about him on the bases. He is attempting to steal every time he reaches. He is a very exciting prospect, but the gap between present and future has not closed a ton.
- Jamari Baylor – It has been a bad start for Baylor. He has been not hitting the ball hard and not really hitting it a ton. Like a lot of struggling hitting prospects, he is running a lot with 7 steals in 11 games. The 11 games are also important as it has not been a lot of time in the field for Baylor so far.
- Alexeis Azuaje – Azuaje has hit the ball very hard and very soft, and not much in between. He has been swinging back at his reckless rate from the DSL. Unsurprisingly, he has been deployed as a second baseman more than a shortstop this year.
- James McArthur – With their starting pitching thin, and a belief in his stuff, the Phillies sent James McArthur back to Reading as a starting pitcher. Through 4 starts he has been very hittable, but is still missing many bats. He is already 25 and the Phillies have begun fast tracking their likely bullpen arms already, but for now he appears rotation bound.
- Dominic Pipkin – The Phillies moved Pipkin to the bullpen due to injuries and stalled development. His stuff looks good, with his fastball sitting 94-97 (not a real increase from where he was as a starter). He has had one disaster appearance which has turned a solid stat line into an ugly one.
- Christian McGowan – McGowan had a fine two starts statistically, but the second one ended in an injury. He will be out for at least the next year with an elbow injury.
- Cristian Hernandez – Hernandez made 3 appearances (2 starts) and then disappeared onto the Development List. He is reportedly throwing a bit towards the higher end (96-97) of his velocity range, so that will be important to watch when he is back pitching.
- Mickey Moniak – Moniak made some adjustments at the plate which allowed him to tap into his power and hard contact more consistently. He was slated for a major league job before breaking his hand on a hit by pitch. There are still some questions about pitch recognition and overall approach when not in Spring Training, but there are meaningful changes to point to.
- Jadiel Sanchez – Sanchez has been very solid for the Threshers. He consistently makes good, hard contact. He is drawing walks and he isn’t striking out. There has not been enough power to project a big role for him yet, but he really seems to have a knack for hitting.
- Rickardo Perez – Perez suffered a leg injury in Extended Spring Training and was placed on Clearwater’s 60 Day IL.
- Erubiel Armenta – The Phillies have used Armenta in more of a MLB relief mold in hi-A as the guy to put out fires. So far his control has been extremely poor, which has more than offset what continues to be a good strikeout rate.
- Cristopher Sanchez – Sanchez continues to be mediocre in the majors, generating ground balls and some strikeouts, but still walking too many. He probably should focus on airing it out as a reliever, but he is one of the few pitchers that could theoretically be stretched out as a starter.
- Donny Sands – Sands looked pretty dreadful in Spring Training, but he found his footing walking at a near 25% rate in AAA. There are still worries about how he stacks up against premium pitching, and his defensive woes controlling the running game continue to rear their head (runners are 24 for 28 on stolen bases in just 13 games with him behind the plate).
- Jose Pena Jr. – The reports out of Extended Spring Training have been vague, but positive. Still a bit of wait and see for complete data.
- Eduar Segovia – Still working his way back from a shoulder injury in late 2021.
- Jean Cabrera – In Extended Spring Training without definite reports.
- Andrew Schultz – Schultz’s control still leaves much to be desired. Given he missed the last two years to pandemic and Tommy John, we may need to be patient to see if he can make improvements with time.
- Andrew Baker – Much like Schultz, control continues to be the issue for Baker. Given it was the issue last year, it is not a real surprise. His stuff is still electric, so he has plenty of time to find his way.
- Starlyn Castillo – Still working his way back from 2021 Tommy John surgery.
- Gunner Mayer – Mayer is doing a better job of throwing strikes this season, but his velocity is behind where it was last year and he is no longer a young project anymore. It is still fairly early, but there is a real worry that this is what Mayer is.
- Jordi Martinez – Martinez just came back from injury. He was shaky in his first appearance, but his fastball was up to 95.
- Andrick Nava – After functionally missing 2021, the Phillies sent Nava to Jersey Shore where he has been more of a second catcher/DH type. But so far he is hitting well when given the opportunity. He still is only 20, so there might be something here as he gets fully healthy and into games.
- Casey Martin – His strikeout rate is not astronomical, but Martin continues to not make hard contact and leaving a bunch of people with the impression he just will never hit.
- Yemal Flores – Playing in Extended Spring Training, still big power, still large hit tool concerns.
- Marcus Lee Sang – Lee Sang does not have Sanchez’s feel for contact and drawing walks, and is still fairly raw overall, but he is hitting the ball harder and more consistently hard this year. He still has a way to go, but the arrow is pointing up.
- Blake Brown – Currently out with an injury (I believe lower body)
- Matt Russell – Russell moved to the rotation in Christian McGowan’s spot. After a rough first appearance he has been pretty good. There aren’t any reports to move him up or down from here yet.
- Billy Sullivan – Control has been shaky for Sullivan in the early going, but it also has been 6 appearances.
- Ben Brown – Brown is holding on to the velocity gains after his surgery rehab, but his command continues to be a bit of a struggle. He likely will need some time to see if the feel for more pitches and his delivery start to work their way back.
- JoJo Romero – Working his way back from 2021 Tommy John surgery.
- Ethan Lindow – The Phillies moved Lindow to the bullpen, where is numbers have been good for Jersey Shore, but with no uptick in velocity he looks more like an org bulk innings eater than a back end starter.
- Nicolas Torres – Torres is a bit of a fringe player due to his offensive deficiencies. He has primary been a second baseman this season, but Jersey Shore is set at SS and outfield. Currently he is not hitting enough to push him, but there is still the defensive flexibility to keep an eye on him.
- Freylin Minyety – Minyety got on radars last year with a knack for heard contact. That has not carried forward so far this season (0 XBH and an average exit velocity of 82.2), and unlike Torres, his positional “flexibility” seems to come more from a lack of a place to play than a glove than can play anywhere.
Others of notes
- Darick Hall – Hall hits the ball harder than anyone in the system. He is showing a much better approach against righties and is on an absolute tear for the last two weeks. He still can’t hit LHPs which makes his ceiling a platoon 1B/DH in an org full of people who should DH.
- Alex Garbrick – Garbrick was the Phillies 17th round pick in 2021, and at nearly 24 years old he is definitely experienced for low-A. So far this year year he has allowed 1 run and has 15 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. His fastball is up 2 mph this year (touching 97 in his last appearance) and he comes armed with a pair of very high spin breaking balls. He doesn’t look to have a big ceiling, but he has jumped out a bit statistically in the early going.
- Rodolfo Sanchez – The Phillies moved Sanchez full time to the bullpen where he has mostly moved to just fastball-slider. He has walked 6 in 8 innings, but that is his only real blemish as he has 1 hit allowed, no runs, and 15 strikeouts in that time. He hasn’t had a big jump forward stuff wise, but he is averaging on the higher end of his range, sitting 94.3 so far.
- Kendall Simmons – Simmons has only played 9 games, but has 7 extra base hits (on only 9 hits). He has 2 walks to 15 strikeouts, which continues to be alarming. The raw power is alluring for Simmons, but the weaknesses continues to be the same.
- Matt Kroon – Kroon looked to be continuing a good second half into a good spring training into hopefully a good AA season, but an injury after 2 games will have him out for a while.
- Vito Friscia – Listed at catcher, but mostly a DH with occasional 1B, Friscia is off to a strong start in AA. He is probably an org guy, but a fun one to root for and a solid contributor in that role.
- Arturo De Freitas – De Freitas is second among the Threshers regulars in average exit velocity and has consistently hit the ball hard this year. His 21 strikes out (5 walks) are concerning. But he is a 20 (soon to be 21) year old catch who is also controlling the running game (opposing runners are 12 for 22) in a run happy league.
- Dalton Guthrie – Much like Kroon, Guthrie seemed to be carrying momentum forward, but an injury stopped things hard in their tracks.
- Noah Skirrow – Skirrow is a purveyor of average stuff, but feel for pitching. He has had 3 very good starts for Reading, and might be starting to move ahead of some of the other depth starter types in AA/AAA.
- Garbiel Cotto – Cotto continues to need to add velocity, but his slider has been a real out pitch for him and it make him worth keep half an eye on.
- Oswald Medina – Medina’s stuff really moves, but RHPs who sit 88 aren’t prospects until they add more velocity. He is already 20, but he does have some physical projection left. More of a track going forward prospect for now.
- McKinley Moore – Acquired for Adam Haseley, there is stuff, but the control has been poor since joining the org.