Mid November Phillies Musings

In a normal offseason we would firmly in the dead period waiting for the Winter Meetings. This offseason has the meetings replaced by a period of long dark winter, and so we know there will be something we just don’t know what it will be. Without knowing how much 2027 season there will be or any changes to the parameters of the game speculation is more speculative than usual. That said, there is always room for musings. These are from reading the reporting from the beats and just reading the tea leaves and winds, no real insider information here.

There Are Financial Limitations

Everyone hates to hear it, but the Phillies have real financial restraints. With projected arb salaries they are at about $281M in CBT salary after a $322M number last year. I don’t think we are going to see them look to cut the number significantly, but if they match it $41M isn’t enough to throw lots of money at every hole on the roster. Additionally, the industry buzz is that there will be stricter financial restraints in the future whether that is a hard cap or just more monetary and team building penalties on luxury tax thresholds. That may not affect the number the Phillies actually spend to in 2027, but it does affect how much long term money they add. These constraints are going to affect the other decisions the Phillies look to make.

Aidan Miller is Making This Team if Healthy

Functionally guaranteeing Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter roster spots in 2026 wasn’t a roaring success, so it is fine to be skeptical of doing it again. However, if Miller had not missed most of the 2026 season to injury he probably would have been with the big league club. Some of the shine and luster is definitely off of Miller and he hasn’t shown the skill on his return that would point to star, but there are certainly signs that he should be a good player. I wouldn’t read too much into Miller’s time in Arizona as the competition has been brutal. It is just good that he has been healthy and playing baseball games.

Given that the Phillies need to solve problems in the bullpen, outfield, and overall depth in addition to third base, just having a league minimum player who can be an average regular could go a long way towards having better resource allocation. While third base is the position listed for now, the positional flexibility with Miller and Bryson Stott means that if needed an infield shift could occur if Trea Turner continues to be untenable at short or there is an injury.

You Don’t Build Your October Bullpen in the Offseason, You Bring in Candidates

In his press conference Dave Dombrowksi indicated the Phillies like their RH relief corps, and it isn’t a hard road to follow them down. Jhoan Duran is very good, Alex McFarlane was impressive in his time in the majors, and Jonathan Bowlan was dominant for much of the season. Bowlan wore down and was injured heading into the postseason, and Caleb Kilian didn’t even really pitch for the team. They still have Orion Kerkering for now and Chase Shugart, while out of options, is totally fine as the 7th or 8th man in a bullpen. Outside of Duran it isn’t exactly what you want in the postseason, but the postseason doesn’t start right now. As we saw with Brad Keller (and really every other past signing), there are plenty of pitfalls along the way including injuries, variance, and regression. They will need left handed pitching with just Tim Mayza slated for a major league role, and Kyle Backhus slated for AAA and Tanner Banks possibly not around.

What they need is depth and upside, not floor. While it isn’t entirely what you want right now for the postseason, that is a solid, if unspectacular, regular season bullpen (assuming the manager learns how not to warm them up every night). The Phillies biggest strength has been their major league pitching development and they should be providing projects for that machine, not finished products. This could once again mean they are looking for an arm at the deadline, but as we have seen making offseason acquisitions doesn’t solve that problem anyway. They should be active in small trades, signings, and waivers looking to upgrade the raw material they are putting in the bullpen rather than seeking short term luxury options.

The Desperate Need for Depth

The Phillies seem like they will bring back Bryan De La Cruz and Derek Hill in arbitration. De La Cruz can be sent to the minors and is just better depth than their RH options like Otto Kemp, Felix Reyes, and Colby Thomas. They can send Johan Rojas to AAA if they keep him, and Gabriel Rincones Jr. is fine to give another chance to. That is not a lot of depth, and none of it on the infield other than the likely 40 man additions of Aroon Escobar and Bryan Rincon. They shouldn’t spend a ton of money solving the problem, but if you aren’t going to make big moves then you need to improve the margins enough to not have gaping holes when you have injuries or performance issues.

This extends to catcher where they need to find a real 1B to go with Realmuto. It is probably ok if that is a defensive forward backup as long as they hit more than Rafael Marchan did. Given their lack of organizational depth overall, they should have room in AAA to offer to minor league free agents. That market is moving quickly and multiple teams will be aggressive, but they need to look at players like De La Cruz, or Jeff Hoffman years ago, that have plausible major league upside with some bounceback or growth potential over prioritizing pure up and down guys.

Rule 5 Protection Should be Quiet

Most organizations don’t expect the major league Rule 5 draft to happen because the lockout will end close to the start of the season, at best. That said, teams don’t want to risk losing a top prospect to the draft if it somehow does happen so they will protect obvious players and leave fringe guys exposed. For the Phillies that probably means just Bryan Rincon and Aroon Escobar are protected and players like Raylin Heredia, Mavis Graves, and Wen-Hui Pan are left exposed as the risk of exposure line shifts. If teams are more willing to leave players exposed that likely will shrink the market for players being squeezed off rosters for trades which reduces the chance for the Phillies to grab some interesting players on the outs with their org.

They Need an Outfield Bat, but Traps Await

I think the fanbase has settled on pining for Teruaki Sato for a bunch of reasons both on and off the field. He certainly has some warts (contact) and fit issues (another lefty bat), but the Phillies need talent and they need talent that isn’t past their prime. I don’t know if the team will be the most motivated suitor or if Sato is willing to come to Philly, but given his market should be complete prior to the lockout the Phillies should be very in on him now.

The two biggest names and short term fits are Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena, and they come with all sorts of watch points. Both are on the wrong side of 30 with questionable defense (despite Suzuki bouncing back next to an all-world center fielder) and qualifying offers attached. That last part may matter both to their cost in picks and bonus money, and their market, but only if the signing penalties are in the new CBA. The Phillies should avoid more long term money to older players and they should be in no rush with either player. If they don’t sign Sato they should just wait until after the lockout to survey the market and landscape (what are the salary penalties) and see if there is a reasonable deal to be made. While it is a huge problem for the Phillies to solve, they should not put themselves further in a hole to force a solution.

As for elsewhere in the outfield, if there is no good Brandon Marsh deal to happen, it is not the worst thing to run back a left field platoon. If there is a Marsh deal it is ok to look in that platoon space anyway. The Phillies figure to get 30-40 games of Schawarber and Harper in the outfield mix as well, so if you sign a full time corner outfielder there will already be some churn in the other corner. To the depth side, they need to find more projects to give time to, and they should lean into the platoon aspect and maximizing specific skills over trying to find a perfect solution.