Graduated Player Review: Justin Crawford

Preseason Outlook

Preseason Rank – 3rd

Role: Incredibly Frustrating Above Average Regular
Risk: Medium – It is true of any player that the role and risk is a sliding scale, but it might be most true with Crawford. The closer he gets to the majors without failing or fixing his issues, the more it looks like he can be a useful player in some capacity. The quality of his tools, coupled with his inability to fully access them, is going to leave outsiders wishing for more.

Season Stats

G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
149	465	3	17	5.8%	17.6%	.264	.309	.353

Season Review

The Phillies cleared a path to open in the majors for Crawford, and while he appeared in almost every game he rapidly found himself in a platoon once Derek Hill joined the roster. It wasn’t a completely down season for Crawford with highs at various times that made it look like he was putting it together. In aggregate he ended up being extremely Justin Crawford, and that sort of is the problem. We can look at some of his underlying stats in 2025 in AAA to 2026 in the majors and how they translated both in raw numbers and MLB percentile outcomes (min 150 PAs) and find some concerning trends (or lack of trends)

Stat	2025	2026	2026 Percentile
90th EV	102.7	101.7	22nd
Max EV	110.6	109.2	33rd
Pull FB	4.2%	4.4%	8th
Swing%	49.6%	52.4%	82nd
Chase%	35.0%	38.4%	19th
Hittable Pitch Take %	28.9%	30.6%	50th
Z-Con%	88.4%	88.4%	76th
Whiff%	18.2%	17.6%	87th
Zone%	47.8%	49.5%	–
SwStr%	9.0%	9.2%	80th
LA<=0%	43.0%	44.5%	–

These are fundamentally the same picture. He doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, never hits it where he would do damage, and swings and chases too much while still making contact. There are problems with the swing that drive poor contact quality, and we are past time where he needs a full teardown and rebuild so that he can be on time to the baseball. However, it is his pitch recognition and approach deficits that stands out. He is not aggressive in the zone, but chases at a high rate. On a pitch by pitch breakout, he hits fastballs better than offspeed, but he doesn’t punish them and in particular he beats sinkers directly into the ground. He is getting the bat on the ball, but his BABIP dropped from .407 to .317 because major league defenders turn balls in play into outs at a higher rate. He needs to have some sense of doing damage on pitches in a hittable zone in advantage counts and not just focusing on making contact.

It wasn’t just the plate stats that carried over from AAA, Crawford was a below average defender in center field thanks to poor jumps and adventuresome routes. He was able to recover at times due to his speed, but he also was one of the worst outfielders in baseball in getting up to speed.

This all combined to make Crawford a replacement level player and part of the Phillies overall struggles in the position player group.

Future Outlook

It might be better for the Phillies defense if Crawford is in left field, but given his offensive profile and struggles he just isn’t a major league starter not in center. The most basic thing he can do is improve his defense. Part of that will be improving his jump and then just getting up to full speed. The Rays showed this as a successful strategy for their outfielders with the quick burst and faster first step eliminating the wasted movement in the outfield.

Offensively, there will be calls to make Crawford more like Chandler Simpson, but Crawford has never the approach or contact abilities to achieve that very low ceiling approach. He needs a large overhaul of everything he has done (in a season without contact with coaches). He needs to quiet his swing and figure out what an “A” swing looks like for doing damage and at least let it rip in positive counts. Just swinging less may also benefit him as his contact his turning into outs and reducing the amount of chase and poor contact from it may improve his output overall. For many years the Phillies and Crawford have been reticent to make changes because he has been successful, but the proof of concept failed and he needs to be something else now. If he can’t adapt then he might be a AAAA player within a few years.