The MLB draft is this upcoming Sunday (Rounds 1-3) and Monday (Rounds 4-20). The Phillies are picking 26th this year after picking 27th the last two years. Like last year they have all of their picks, but due to the nature of picking late in each of the rounds they have the 5th smallest bonus pool which limits their overall flexibility.
There is no real way to predict the first round player, just the overall strategy and vibe. Under Brian Barber the Phillies have selected Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, and Dante Nori in the first round. They are all high schoolers, and that fits how the draft generally appears to me and how it plays out. Most years, college hitters will float up the draft, then there will be a run on college arms, and at some point teams who are looking to spread money will take their reaches to cut money. That means high schoolers fall on day 1. I, and I think the Phillies, would prefer for that to be a high school bat that falls, but they have obviously not shied away from pitchers in the past. The Phillies have been open to college arms in the past, but it is hard to see the board falling that way by pick 26.
The Phillies have generally operated best when they have let the board fall to them and take the guy who falls. Their preferred hitters tend to have poor traits with the Phillies undervaluing swings and usable power. Justin Crawford was a player they fell in love with and they liked Griffin Burkholder last year and that led to a scramble to find a player that would take the lowest bonus possible and that led to Dante Nori being taken in the first round. A thing that also factors in his that the Phillies are one of the more risk accepting teams and least model inclined. This is a good and bad thing. There are real benefits to a player being young for a class and all things being equal a college player is safer. However, when you are picking at the end of the first round it is sometimes fine to not overthink things and be fine with your limited in person looks on a player that may not be model friendly, and that is how you end up taking Painter or Miller.
Any player taken can be traded for major league league help and the Phillies system is at a talent deficit. They should just sit and take the best player that falls through, and based on history that is probably going to be a high school hitter.
You don’t really draft for need in the MLB draft, but the Phillies system has a major need that needs to be addressed, and that is pitching. There is always going to be pitching taken on the old day 3 (rounds 11-20), but that is not the type of pitching that changes a farm system, that is dart throws at arms with the hope of a reliever or two. What the system needs is stuff, and the Phillies did not take a pitcher until Round 8 in 2024.
Historically the Phillies have spent on mid round college pitching with some success. Between 2021 and 2022 they took Griff McGarry (5), Christian McGowan (7), Jason Ruffcorn (8), Alex McFarlane (4), Orion Kerkering (5), Alex Rao (8), George Klassen (6), Jake Eddington (7), and Cam Brown (10). Even if those haven’t all panned out, there is positive value on the rounds 4-6 pitching and they really need to lean into that.
Before that, the rest of day 1 (rounds 2&3) is probably going to be HS heavy and probably HS hitting, but it would be nice to see them maybe add an arm. The thing is with the smaller pool, without some real late round punting, there just is not much money after round 3 to sign a high schooler away from a college commitment.
There will be college hitters, the real thing is how many times they take a swing optimized player like Carson DeMartini who has maybe slipped due to something like injury vs a college performer with more questions about how their results will translate. Prospects like John Spikerman have been on the back foot from their arrival, and last year’s draft featured many players with low power output and the Phillies are historically not an org that unlocks that in players.
Just to touch on the unslotted rounds (11-20). Typically Barber has not reserved much money for late rounds, instead just taking players on the board in rounds 8-10. Expect a bunch of big beefy boys with big arms and poor control late in the draft. The Phillies have a mixed track record in this area, but it is much more likely they will unlock an arm than a bat that late.
It is an important draft for restocking the system after what will be another thinning trade deadline, and after last year’s poor draft it will be imperative that this is not a trend.
I know 2024 Draft wasn’t the best but have we’ve given up already on it? Isn’t there time for Nori/Buckholder/DeMartini to turn things around?
It isn’t that they will get nothing, but now 12 months out it looks like everything written pre-draft about the flaws of their players has been true and outside of DeMartini no one has really stepped forward or show real upside. Spikerman looked like a poor pick at the time and that continues to be true, Mathison, Shojinaga, and Dragoo have largely all been immediately bad. It has contributed very little to the overall depth and health of the system and that is clear when we talk about this trade deadline.
Not an original thought here, but it’s shocking that multiple front office’s have tried to build their minor league development, and all have seemed to fail at it, across many years.
I thought Shojinaga was doing all right based on the amount of time he was receiving behind the plate and some gap power?
He had kind of a hot start but currently has a .640 OPS in Clearwater as a 22 year old.
We should trade our 1st to a rebuilding team like Suckramento or the Nats as part of a package for a closer or RH OF. Considering our drafting track record and current roster, better off going for the win now. Plus it saves trading away a decent prospect that’s already been invested in and developed.
The Phillies are not allowed to trade their picks. The only picks that can be traded are those awarded to small market or teams that receive money from revenue sharing.
Was some of the bad drafting last year in the later rounds based on needing to save slot money?
Also, do you think their strategy tends to be star in round 1 and maybe 2 and then maybe utility type depth after that and save money/maybe get a reliever later in rounds 5-10? Spikerman, ethan wilson, mathisom and even demartini looked like – “they could make the team” picks but lower upside
I wouldn’t say DeMartini was lower upside, but I do think there were less swings on upside for many of their picks.
They did need to save some money later (ultimately they saved none for rounds 11-20), but it was about $100k spread over the remaining picks. So they could have say drafted a senior instead of Brady Day and been fine. They couldn’t go above the board, but they weren’t having to save at each pick.
When is it fair to fully judge a draft class? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years?
I think you judge along the way, starting with right after the draft with a “did you use your resources well?”. After a year you are looking for progress, essentially “is this class better or worse than it looked at the draft given their resources”. You can sort of keep doing that, but then 4 (for college players) and 5 (for high schoolers) is that real judgement point because that is the Rule 5 eligibility/40 man add time. It isn’t just are those players going to contribute to your MLB team, but did some of them grow to be used as trade pieces. This is where it does matter for after a year, because you want the class to provide you resources to use in the short term, and that is as trade assets.