It feels fated that the two pitching prospects in the organization headed most in the opposite directions would have major news on the same day, no matter if the two moves are completely unconnected.
Dealing with the bad first, Rob Thomson said RHP Moises Chace will be heading for Tommy John surgery. Chace came into Spring Training having not really thrown in the offseason with his velocity well below where it was in 2024. The velocity never recovered, even while his command did improve. He left his start earlier in the week early holding his arm. On some level it is encouraging, if one can be encouraged in a moment like this, that it wasn’t his shoulder which the broadcast thought he pointed to. We don’t know if the injury was a cause of the velocity being down or working through the velocity being down led to the injury. Either way, we won’t see him until next summer, where he might be able to get 1-2 months of work in.
This is Chace’s first year on the 40 man roster. Given he should be back in some way next season, he will probably burn an option year without the Phillies considering avoiding that by burning some MLB time. That all will give him the 2027 season to establish himself on some sort of MLB trajectory. It definitely increases the risk he is a reliever, but we are also talking about a guy who will only be 23 when he comes back, so that isn’t a today or tomorrow decision. The thing that makes Chace special (the rising fastball from a flat angle) is something that should be there when he returns. In terms of prospect stock, he probably will fall into the late teens on my Phillies list and then freeze in place until he returns. He is a better prospect than Alex McFarlane was when he showed decreasing stuff prior to surgery. Unless another team just absolutely loves him and the Phillies want to sell at all costs, he also isn’t moving in a trade for at least 14 months.
Mick Abel on the other side has a much less permanent change coming. The 2020 1st round pick is making his move in combination with Aaron Nola heading to the IL with a sprained ankle. Ultimately Taijuan Walker will take Nola’s rotation spot, but with Abel slated for tonight’s AAA start, he will actually move back to the Sunday MLB start to let the Phillies align the rotation around Nola’s absence. That means unless something else happens, Abel is up for one night and one night only.
The call up is a recognition that Abel really is their best AAA starter and best emergency call up. Over 8 starts this season he has a 2.53 ERA in 46.1 innings with 19 walks and 51 strikeouts. He has been even better over his last 5 with a 1.78 ERA and 13 walks and 33 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. Abel has thrown more strikes, generated weaker contact, and seen his K% go from 22.7% to 26.6% while his walk rate dropped from 15.1% to 9.9%. Much of it has come on the back of the same arsenal, though being at full strength all season has helped, but with changes in pitch usage and location usage.
So what does Abel throw?
Against right handed hitters it is going to be both fastballs (4-seam and sinker), curveball, and slider. His 4-seam fastball will average around 96, and he has moderated that better over starts, but you will see more 97s and 98s early and 94s and 95s late, but he will reach back for more if needed. He has been up to 99 this year. His sinker comes in at about a mph below his 4-seamer. The 4-seamer is primarily a chase pitch he wants to work up in the zone or outside for chases. It doesn’t have great shape, and can be vulnerable in the zone, but he has landed it there for strikes. His sinker is not meant miss bats, and it doesn’t (90.5% Z-contact against), but it is thrown in the zone primarily and generates weak contact. His 87 mph gyro slider is his best pitch and the workhorse that ties the arsenal together. He can land it in the zone for strikes while also using it as a chase pitch. Batters can get the bat to it, but they rarely do damage on it. His curveball does not want to be in the zone. It is in the low 80s and every swing on it in the zone has resulted in contact. However, he can tunnel it off the high fastball to steal strikes, and it is his primary chase pitch.
Against lefties, the sinker goes away and he throws just the 4-seam fastball as his hard pitch, and he ticks his overall fastball usage up a bit. He will then mix in a 88 mph changeup with great drop and decent deception has a chase pitch, particularly as he goes through a lineup again.
When you look at his arsenal as a whole, the slider might be a plus pitch, but the rest of the collection probably is somewhere between slightly below average and above average. His fastballs work because of the velocity more than their movement. However, the biggest change for Abel has been how the whole thing works together. He has gotten better at damage suppression with the sinker and slider, especially allowing him to get strikes in the strike zone. He has moved his four seamer to be a bit more in the zone and bit less chase hunting, while not leaving it overexposed, and he has moved the curveball into a place where he is less vulnerable to giving up big hits. He still has a way to go when it comes to command, but the walks are now much more rarely the just lose the zone type, and now more are of the miss in a full count type.
This is all one start, and Abel is probably more of a #4 with mid rotation upside these days. However, it is huge strides from last year, and he absolutely deserves this call up. Maybe there are more gears to unlock, but for this weekend, he is very much a major league pitcher regardless of outcome.