In 2024, the Phillies went 55-29 (.654, a 106 win pace) over the first 3+ months of the season and went 40-38 (.513, a 83 win pace) over the last 3 months of the season. This has been seen by fans as the portent of doom that affected the Phillies through the 2024 postseason and now into a slow start to the 2025 season. The reality is that these are unrelated connections being mashed together to create a narrative of negativity.
The offense is the lightning rod of attention. It struggled vs the Mets and has struggled now. Here is how the offense splits out in our first half and second half splits above (Mar-Jun, Jul-Sept).
| Games | PA | wRC+ | wRC+ Rank | fWAR | fWAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 3231 | 110 | 7 | 15.1 | 4 |
| 78 | 2935 | 106 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
It is a real offensive drop, about a 6 win a year drop. Not entirely surprising given they were on a 106 win pace. There was also Bohm’s injury and drop off that contributed. If we just go month over month the Phillies offense had a wRC+ of 108, 109, 112, 100, 108, 110. So what we are really measuring is a poor July for the offense.
If it isn’t the offense, then what is being measured?
| G | Team ERA | SP ERA | SP IP | RP ERA | RP IP | fWAR | fWAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 3.09 | 2.96 | 498 | 3.34 | 259 | 16.4 | 1 |
| 78 | 4.70 | 4.84 | 405 | 4.49 | 280 | 5.8 | 22 |
That is a 10 win gap or 20 over the course of the season, a scale that completely dwarfs the offense. The starting pitching completely fell apart and put a larger burden on the bullpen. We also cannot even separate out the starting from the relief pitching as the Phillies turned to players for bulk innings. This all becomes stark when we look at first vs second half among players who were nominally treated as or expected to be SP during our split.
| 1st Half SP | 1st Half IP | 1st Half ERA | 2nd Half SP | 2nd Half IP | 2nd Half ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 107.2 | 3.43 | Zack Wheeler | 94.1 | 2.39 |
| Zack Wheeler | 105.2 | 2.73 | Aaron Nola | 91.2 | 3.73 |
| Ranger Suarez | 103.0 | 2.27 | Cristopher Sanchez | 88.1 | 4.28 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 93.1 | 2.41 | Ranger Suarez | 47.2 | 6.04 |
| Taijuan Walker | 53.0 | 5.60 | Tyler Phillips | 36.2 | 6.87 |
| Spencer Turnbull | 54.1 | 2.65 | Taijuan Walker | 30.2 | 9.68 |
| Kolby Allard | 27.0 | 5.00 | |||
| Michael Mercado | 12.0 | 12.00 | |||
| Seth Johnson | 2.1 | 34.71 |
What becomes very clear is that the second half swoon was a product of the injuries to Ranger Suarez and Spencer Turnbull, the ineffectiveness of Taijuan Walker, some regression from Cristopher Sanchez, and a lack of depth. With all of this in mind, the Phillies rotation is currently 4th in fWAR and the addition of Jesus Luzardo and a bounce back from Taijuan Walker has allowed the Phillies have a more solid base of starting pitching depth.
The other theory on all of this is that 4 games vs the Mets last November are the basis of the negativity. We all know that 4 games in baseball is a negligible sample size. It can be argued pretty clearly that the biggest problem in that series were big hits allowed and meltdowns by Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez, both players that are pined for now.
None of this is to say that the 2025 Phillies are playing well, because they are not. In a still tiny sample size of 25 games, players across the board have failed to be successful and have been poor in clutch situations. When a team is struggling, it is easy to look at the micro and create a historical justification based on vibes. The truth however, is that much of the evidence points to the real problem with the past was a clear areas of weakness that has been shored up.