Phillies Minor League Recap (Week 2 4/1-4/6)

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This Week’s Schedule

Hitter Spotlight

IF Otto Kemp

7-25 2B 3B 2 HR 4 RBI 2 BB 7 K

One of the knocks on Otto Kemp has been whether he can get to his power. He has three home runs already and has a 90th percentile EV of 106.5mph on tracked balls. He is above 80th percentile with that 90th percentile EV, his max EV, and his pulled fly ball rate. To get to that power has come with a big sacrifice. Kemp has one of the lower zone contact rates in AAA and has been swinging and missing at offspeed pitches at an alarmingly high rate. He is going to need to bring the power and miss in harmony because as of right now it looks like big league breaking balls are going to eat him alive. Defensively, Kemp has settled into a rotation between second and third with occasional start at first.

Pitcher Spotlight

RHP Mick Abel

6 IP 4 H 0 R 0 BB 7 K

It wasn’t the most dominant game that any pitcher has ever thrown, but it was one of Abel’s best starts in years. His fastball average 95.2 mph, and he mostly went with the 4-seam variety. He expanded the zone early with it early for some misses, but then got into the zone late as he danced around trouble Being in the zone with his fastball helped his slider play up, and he was able to use it in and out of the zone. This is going to have to be a bit more how Abel is as he does not have a pitch to overpower right now. In the long term he is going to need to work in the curveball, changeup, and sinker, but having the slider be a pitch he can rely on can let Abel not have to rely on chases on his fastball. Another thing of note is that Garrett Stubbs was behind the plate for this start, and while Abel cannot rely on veteran every time out, maybe Stubbs can help him simplify and find confidence.

Notes and Thoughts

  • The story of the week is going to be Andrew Painter pitching about 2 innings in Clearwater on Friday on the Statcast feed
  • I would normally highlight that Griff McGarry went 4 perfect innings with 8 strikeouts on 55 pitches for Reading on Sunday. Unfortunately, we don’t have video of his start to break down. We know he was 93-95 touching 97 per KRAM 207 who was at the game.
  • Justin Crawford has not been a slouch hitting the ball this year so far, with a 90th percentile EV of 105.1 mph in the early going, which is 70th percentile in AAA. He is running very good zone contact rates (90%) and has not been vulnerable to offspeed so far. His problem continues to be turning that into good contact quality as he continues to be let down by his aggression at the plate. He put up a nice line drive triple and while he has a 70% ground ball rate in AAA, much of that was in the first week.
  • When it comes to power in the early going nobody has been better in the system than Gabriel Rincones Jr. who has a 90th percentile EV of 109.6 mph which is 98th percentile for the league. He has put up some good contact rates, for him, but has been uncharacteristically aggressive at the plate.
  • Seth Johnson had a less velocity and a little less command in his second start. But it also wasn’t a disaster and he missed some bats.
  • Through 3 games, Dante Nori has an even split between ground balls and flyballs, and while he has three strikeouts in 3 games, he had 4 walks. Also he hit a ground ball 104.4 mph on Sunday which hints there is at least some strength there.
  • Aroon Escobar was swinging early and often in his two games, picking up 4 strikeouts. He hit the ball hard a couple of times, but he will need to re-find his patience.
  • Eduardo Tait also was swinging often, but only struck out once over the weekend. He had a big single on Sunday in the comeback and hit a double a blistering 109.9, one of 5 balls in play at 100mph or higher.
  • Sam Highfill was a NDFA signing last summer after 5 not great years at NC State. He averaged above 91 on his fastball last year. On opening day he was up to 94.9 and averaged 92.6 mph on his fastball with about 20 inches of IVB. He had a flat angle last year, but 4 inches less of rise on it last year, if he keeps the angle with that run it could be a very interesting pitch. He didn’t miss that many bats, while showing two different changeup looks, a gyro slider, and a bigger curveball. He probably isn’t much, but he was an early surprise.
  • Titan Hayes has brought a lot of heat in the early going (sitting 96-99), but is going to dial in the command quite a bit more.
  • Jean Cabrera limited damage, but 4 walks to 3 strikeouts in 4.2 innings is not what you want. It was better than what followed him, a combined 4.1 IP 8 H 13 ER 9 BB 6 K that saw Cade Fergus having to pitch.
  • It was a 1-6 opening weekend for Carson DeMartini, but he also had 5 walks to 3 strikeouts and stole 3 bases.
  • Not a great weekend for fellow BlueClaws Dylan Campbell (1-12 1 BB 5 K) but he played second on Sunday. If he can play some infield, it makes him a more interesting and flexible prospect.
  • Aidan Miller hit a home run on opening say, but struck out in half his 10 PAs over the weekend.
  • I don’t really know how Hendry Mendez does it. He was 3 for 9 on the weekend with 4 walks and 0 strikeouts. He has not yet put a fly ball in play and continues to have one of the ugliest swings you will see, and yet he draws walks and does not strikeout.
  • Mavis Graves went 3 IP 2 H 1 ER 1 BB 7 K which would be a great stat line if he hadn’t also hit two batters and needed 73 pitches.

Injuries and Transactions

Links and Things

Minor Thoughts

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