I talk a lot about tiers or groupings of players, and to me there is a distinct drop from 5 to 6 and then from 16 to 17. In a deeper system it would be better if this group started at 10 instead of 6, but this is not a group of bad prospects. What divides this group of 11 players from those that come after it is that you can see the very clear path to being a regular major league baseball player. There is certainly risk and a lot of development ahead for some of these players, but there is real talent here.
All Ages are as of Opening Day (3/27/25)
6. Griffin Burkholder, OF
Age: 19 (8/30/05)
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 195lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .500 | .500 | 1.500 |
Role: Above Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Burkholder hit a triple in his first pro plate appearance and then injured himself in his second. He has plenty of tools, but there are some flaws that haven’t had time to face resistance.
Summary: The Phillies gave equal bonuses to their top two picks, and Burkholder, picked second of the two, might be the better prospect. He has good size and already flashes plus raw power thanks to good bat speed and a swing that gets pull side loft. His swing has some length, and he chased some breaking balls away in some of the unofficial games. However, in the small sample size he wasn’t a hacker and showed a patient approach. Defensively, pre-draft reports had him as a plus plus runner who could stick in center field. If he manages to do that, he could be an elite prospect, but his overall frame looks like he will lose at least a grade of speed. It is easy to see him shifting from ok center fielder to a plus corner defender. Burkholder has the raw tools to be an impact player, but he has very little pro sample size and is mostly just projection at this point.
2025 Outlook: Burkholder should be one of the starting outfielders for the Threshers, whether he gets time in center while sharing an outfield with Dante Nori remains to be seen. The Phillies have not been afraid to push high profile high school picks to Jersey Shore if they have success either.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: N/A
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Age: 24 (3/3/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies|
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 225lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI (FCL) | 9 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 11.1% | 22.2% | .167 | .278 | .200 |
| REA (AA) | 59 | 258 | 11 | 20 | 11.6% | 25.6% | .263 | .357 | .487 |
| Glendale (AFL) | 22 | 90 | 2 | 9 | 12.2% | 7.8% | .273 | .367 | .403 |
| Total | 90 | 384 | 13 | 32 | 9.1% | 21.1% | .257 | .351 | .411 |
Role: Strong Side Platoon Corner Outfielder That Gives Value Like a Regular
Risk: Medium – Rincones is already very poor against left handed pitching and has had some injury issues. However he has a good approach that offsets some of his swing and miss.
Summary: Rincones started the year on a hot streak, with a 1.017 OPS in 13 games, before tearing a ligament in his thumb and missing two months. He struggled in his return, not unexpected given the injury, hitting .224/.316/.329 over his first 23 games back (the amount of time until he hit his second home run of his return. He then hit 4 home runs in 5 games, and .252/.338/.479 the rest of the season before going to the Arizona Fall League. All year Rincones struggled against left handed pitching, hitting just .189/.250/.243 off southpaws in 40 plate appearances. Rincones has plus plus raw power, in the Arizona Fall League he had an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph, but a max of 115.7 mph, and 90th percentile of 106.0 mph. He has not always translated that to home runs, hitting line drives more than fly balls to the outfield, but he could easily be a 20+ home run hitter. He has a good approach, but he will swing and miss. The end result is not quite three true outcomes, but it is in that archetype so he will have below average batting averages with good on base and slugging. Defensively, Rincones is capable of playing both outfield corners with an improving, but below average glove, and a good arm. He is a plus base runner with below average speed, which is likely to add value, but not the stolen base numbers he has had in the minors. Rincones is a flawed player with distinct weaknesses, but the nature of his weaknesses and strengths means that a good team can deploy him in a way that could provide value commensurate with an above average player while having to sit him in certain circumstances.
2025 Outlook: Rincones will start the year in Reading and will be Rule 5 eligible after the season. He won’t be in contention for an early spot on the roster, but if there were a major issue he could be a higher upside answer.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 12
8. Dante Nori, OF
Age: 20 (10/7/04)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 5’10” 190lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 14 | 66 | 0 | 4 | 24.2% | 21.2% | .240 | .424 | .280 |
Role: Everyday Center Fielder
Risk: High – Nori currently hits for zero power and is already 20 and physically mature. He should have the glove, speed, and contact to not need to be a slugger, but he will need to hit for some power.
Summary: The Phillies have never shied away from older prospects in the draft, and Nori was one of the oldest high schoolers when they took him with the 27th pick and signed him to about the smallest deal they could for a player who went to the combine. He is an already polished player who should be a plus defender in center field thanks to plus plus speed. At the plate he already has the advanced approach you would hope for from an older player. In his brief time in Clearwater he had a 92.5% zone contact rate and did not chase much or struggle with offspeed pitches. He was probably too passive, and an area of improvement will be finding pitches to do damage with. Which gets to the real negative of Nori as a prospect, he does very little damage at the plate. In his 14 games in the Florida State League he had a 90th percentile exit velocity of 93.2 mph with a max of 96.9 mph, both of which would have been in the 1st percentile of all FSL hitters. When you watch him hit, his swing is not geared to drive the ball, instead focused on contact, and it looks like he should have more power if he actually swung with more intent. He shouldn’t be a max effort hacker, but he needs to find a way to swing with the goal of driving the baseball. Unless Nori makes a transformative change, he is probably a low ceiling prospect, and assuming center field remains as bleak as it is now and he maintains his defense, he probably has a fairly high floor.
2025 Outlook: Nori should start the year in Clearwater, but is older and polished enough that he could prove he needs a midseason challenge against older competition.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
9. Devin Saltiban, 2B
Age: 20 (2/14/05)
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’9” 180lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 97 | 411 | 17 | 22 | 12.2% | 24.8% | .237 | .346 | .428 |
Role: Everyday Second Baseman
Risk: High – Saltiban has positional and contact concerns, but he has intriguing offensive impact, good athleticism, and a background that was always likely to take time for him to adjust to pro ball.
Summary: The Phillies immediately moved Saltiban from the outfield to the infield after he was drafted, first to shortstop last year, and then to a full year at second base. He looks like someone still learning the position, and the Phillies should give him plenty of time to see if he can get the finer parts of the position down. If he does have to move back to the outfield, it becomes imperative that he can play center, because his bat is unlikely to play in a corner. His offense is a different sort of work in progress. Saltiban shows above average to plus raw power (102.1 mph 90th percentile and 109.8 mph max exit velocity), and already is adept at pulling the ball in the air for some crushed home runs. He has a solid approach at the plate with moderate chase and a good feel for turning on balls in the zone. He was susceptible to offspeed pitches, and his whiff rate was high for the league and it showed in low contact rates. Unsurprisingly, he generally improved over the course of the season. If he can stick on the infield and continue to show this kind of power output, he can get away with the contact not being a strength, he just needs to get it to not be an exploitable hole.
2025 Outlook: Saltiban should be the everyday second baseman for the BlueClaws and will probably spend the full year at Jersey Shore. The park is likely to decrease his power, but the key will be whether his contact issues improve.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 16
10. Mick Abel, RHP
Age: 23 (8/18/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 190lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHV (AAA) | 24 | 24 | 3-12 | 108.2 | 6.46 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 15.1% | 22.7% |
Role: #4 Starter that always hints at more
Risk: Medium – It wasn’t a good year in AAA for Abel, but we have reason to believe he wasn’t at his best all season. He has proven to be durable across his time in the minors.
Summary: For a player with four full minor league seasons, Mick Abel still feels unfinished. Over the seasons he has altered his delivery and his pitches enough that each year feels like a new year. His 2024 season started off with a bang with him throwing fastballs past Juan Soto. However, an illness sapped him of his strength, and when combined with a delivery that never looked comfortable, his velocity was down for the first three months of the season, not achieving an average fastball velocity above 95 until July and finally in August sitting 95.8 mph with his four seamer. It was still a bit below where he was in 2023, and the movement on it is pedestrian. Like most Phillies pitchers he will mix in a sinker, and over the summer he stopped throwing it to lefties and started throwing it more to righties than previously. For breaking balls he has settled on a gyro slider that should sit about 86 and a low 80s curveball with two plane movement. The slider should in theory be his best offspeed pitch, but issues with the fastball have caused the effectiveness on all of his breaking balls to suffer. Over the summer he made some changes to his changeup that had success. It is a harder pitch (averaging around 89 mph) that moved from having more armside movement mimicking his sinker to horizontal movement closer to his 4-seamer, but with more drop than before. Given that he does not throw his sinker to lefties any more, it now has more deception off of his four seamer. With the arsenal settled, the problem continues to be control. Abel just does not throw enough strikes and opposing hitters know it. He has struggled to get early strikes, and hitters have waited him out to either give them a hittable pitch or walk them while fishing for a chase. It no longer looks like Abel will develop the stuff to be a front line starter, but he has enough stuff and pitch variety that he should be able to live in the strike zone. There is a good starting pitcher here, it just might not be the one envisioned.
2025 Outlook: Abel is on the 40 man roster, and is probably not the first call up if there is a starting pitching injury, but he is in the line.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 2
11. Aroon Escobar, 2B/3B
Age: 20 (1/1/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 180lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI (FCL) | 24 | 104 | 3 | 9 | 20.2% | 9.6% | .338 | .495 | .481 |
Role: Above Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Escobar played 24 games this year. They were 24 very good games, but they had enough underlying poor indicators to go with the good that you can’t crown Escobar yet.
Summary: Escobar has long shown an advanced approach at every stop, and his 21 walks to 10 strikeouts this season were a product of good decision making rather than passivity. He has plus raw power and good contact rates to go with the low chase rates, but has struggled to consistently square up the baseball with stretches of pop ups and ground balls at each level. If he can find more of that consistency with contact quality, his approach and power are going to make it play up in a way that could make him an impact offensive player. He has been a good base stealer the last two seasons, but is more of an average runner than a burner. This shows on defense where he can play second base, but at times he seems to lack some of the range to be a great defender there. He has plenty of arm for third base, and his actions and range play well enough there he could be an above average or plus defender at the hot corner. Escobar missed time the last two seasons, including being day to day for over 2 months in 2024 with shin splints in both legs. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to breakout early in the season and quickly be one of the best prospects in the organization.
2025 Outlook: Escobar should finally reach full season ball next year, and if he consistently does what he has flashed, then he could move up to Jersey Shore by the middle of the season.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 46
12. Jean Cabrera, RHP
Age: 23 (10/20/01)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 145lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JS (A+) | 14 | 14 | 5-4 | 77.0 | 3.39 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 8.0% | 29.0% |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 5 | 1-1 | 29.2 | 4.85 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 6.1% | 14.4% |
| Total | 20 | 19 | 6-5 | 106.2 | 3.80 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 7.4% | 24.7% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Jean Cabrera has a starter’s arsenal and a good feel for pitching, and has reached AA. Cabrera did not miss bats in his AA time, and while it’s a small sample size, it is something to watch.
Summary: Cabrera took a step forward in 2023 and another in 2024. His fastballs worked more in the upper end of his 91-96 mph range, and he was able to hold that velocity into his starts. Both his four seamer and his sinker lack positive movement traits, and he struggles to miss bats in the zone with them. This is offset by his offspeed pitches, both of which saw improvement in command and sequencing. His changeup gets big sink and horizontal movement in the upper 80s, and he sells it very well off of his fastball. He will throw it to both righties and lefties, both as a chase and in the zone. He gets solid movement on his sweeper, but it isn’t a plus pitch on its own. The big difference for him this season is he went from using it as a glove side chase pitch to landing it backdoor for strikes and in on the feet for chases to left handed batters. He is reportedly adding a cutter to the mix as another way to keep hitters off balance in the strike zone. He is unlikely to miss as many bats as he did in Jersey Shore, but despite his size he has held up as a starting pitcher, and his improved feel should serve him well. It is unsurprising, given his changeup, that he had better success against left handed batters in 2024, so improving his sweeper and likely his sinker vs right handed batters will be an area of improvement to look for in 2025. The Phillies feel he has some more velocity in his arm, as he has touched up to 98, but he is not a very large individual and there is definitely some question about how his arm might hold up at that point.
2025 Outlook: The Phillies added Cabrera to the 40 man roster, and he shouldn’t factor into the 2025 major league plans outside of possibly the end of the season. He should go to Reading and pitch out of the rotation there for much or all of the season.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 18
13. Carson DeMartini, 3B
Age: 22 (12/27/02)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’0” 197lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 24 | 104 | 2 | 8 | 8.7% | 13.5% | .315 | .385 | .478 |
Role: Everyday Third Baseman
Risk: High – DeMartini swung and missed at a high rate this year in college, but put up high contact rates in pro ball with much lower power output in the pros. He will need to bring those together to have success in the future.
Summary: DeMartini was supposed to be a first round pick heading into the 2024 draft after two dominant years at Virginia Tech, but a shoulder surgery and possible swing changes saw him swing and miss at a high rate as a junior, and he fell to the Phillies in the 4th round. With the Threshers he ran an impressive 91.7% zone contact rate. The problem is that his 90th percentile exit velocity was 100.5 mph, with a max of 106.6 mph, and he pulled fly balls at a low rate, too. It led to just 2 home runs and 7 extra base hits in 24 games after 21 home runs and 35 extra base hits in 54 games in college. It is positive that DeMartini was able to improve his contact, but he will need to get back to driving the baseball to have an impactful future. He won’t need to maintain 90%+ z-contact rates, but if he can stay around at least 85%, he will have plenty of success. Defensively, the Phillies played DeMartini at second and short in addition to third, but they view him as a third baseman and he should stick at the position. There is a path where DeMartini puts it all together and is an impact player, but it is more likely he is a player with a collection of flaws and successes that work out to make him a decent player.
2025 Outlook: Given his college track record and success with the Threshers, DeMartini likely starts with the BlueClaws. If he can put it all together, he could move quickly.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
14. Mavis Graves, LHP
Age: 21 (12/20/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’6” 205lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 18 | 16 | 7-6 | 84.0 | 3.64 | 8.3 | 0.3 | 9.8% | 31.8% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Graves has a feel for spin and a collection of secondary pitches that missed bats. He will flash higher velocity, but right now he throws all of his pitches 2-3 mph slower than you would want, and his fastballs get hit around.
Summary: Graves was a project when the Phillies took him, and he is still very much a project, but one that is starting to take shape. During the season, he was one of the most prolific strikeout pitchers in the Florida State League, with the peak of his season being a 10 game run from April 21 to June 25, where he threw 52.1 innings with a 2.06 ERA with 16 walks and 81 strikeouts, with 4 different 10 strikeout games. What was impressive was that he did it while throwing two different fastballs 47% of the time that were not really fooling batters. That was thanks to three very good offspeed pitches. He throws a slider/cutter with spin rates north of 2600 RPM that had a ridiculous 62% zone contact rate, while throwing it in the zone more than his fastballs. It came in at a season average of 82.7 mph, but he flashed throwing it more in the 84-87 range. It pairs with a sweeper/curve with spin rates above 2800 RPM that had good results in and out of the zone, but he needs to refine the command a bit more. It was 3 mph slower than his cutter and had more sweep than drop. His sneakily best pitch might be his changeup that he killed the spin on well and was rarely in the zone, but generated a large number of whiffs. The fastballs themselves average 90.8 mph each, but he showed that he could get them up to 94-95 early in the year. His 4-seamer has deadzone movement and a bad angle, and his sinker could use killing a bit more verticality to take advantage of its steepness to limit hard contact (think Cristopher Sanchez). Unsurprisingly for a young pitcher going through his first full season, much of Graves’ arsenal lost 1-2 mph over the course of the season, and his command really suffered through September. Graves has the frame to hold up as a starter, and it will be important that he can build that stamina while also increasing his velocity. If he does have a big velocity jump, he could be a monster, but it is probably safer to view him as a lefty who gives a weird look (he uses his size for a steep angle on all of his pitches) and throws enough fastballs to keep hitters off his secondary pitches so they can do their work.
2025 Outlook: Graves pitched a full season in Clearwater and will likely pitch a full season in Jersey Shore as a follow up.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 37
15. Seth Johnson, RHP
Age: 26 (9/19/98)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round of the 2019 Draft by the Rays. Traded to the Baltimore Orioles in a 3-team trade with the Houston Astros in August 2022. Traded to the Phillies with Moises Chace for Gregory Soto in July 2024.
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 205lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOW (AA) | 18 | 18 | 0-6 | 65.0 | 2.63 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 13.0% | 22.6% |
| REA (AA) | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 7.2 | 3.52 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 3.0% | 27.3% |
| LHV (AAA) | 5 | 5 | 2-1 | 23.0 | 2.74 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 14.4% | 19.6% |
| PHI (MLB) | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 2.1 | 34.71 | 30.9 | 3.9 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| MiLB Total | 25 | 25 | 2-8 | 95.2 | 2.73 | 7.0 | 0.9 | 12.5% | 22.3% |
Role: #4 Starter/Multi-Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – It was a successful first full year back from Tommy John surgery for Johnson, but he still doesn’t fully look like a lock to start. His pitch arsenal plays below the visual and metrics level, and he might lack the ability to really turn over a lineup multiple times.
Summary: Johnson was picked in the 1st round by the Rays in 2019 after pitching only 67.1 innings in college. Then the 2020 season was canceled, and he had Tommy Johnson surgery in 2022 that cut short 3 more years of development. Johnson has only 313.1 pro innings, and 98 of them came in 2024. The Phillies took some of the restrictions off after he came over in the trade for Gregory Soto, but he has yet to really pitch deep games on high pitch counts. It also means that for a 26 year old, he is well behind his age on the developmental curve. His fastball is the most intriguing pitch in his arsenal, averaging about 95 mph with over 18” IVB, but that rise is offset by a less than ideal approach angle given his size, and hitters were able to make contact both in and out of the zone on it. His best pitch after the trade was his slider, which has shorter gyro/cutter movement, and he was able to use it to generate swings and misses both in and out of the zone. He has a big curveball, but in AAA and the majors, hitters hit it every time it was in the zone and almost never chased it. In theory a big breaker should play off of high fastballs, but hitters were clearly able to identify it. He threw a limited number of changeups, and while inconsistent, there were some good flashes. As a starter he will need to develop the changeup and fix what is wrong with the curveball, but as a reliever he could simplify the arsenal to the fastball and slider. He has struggled with command and control when betters have not chased his stuff, and other than the slider he has not had a pitch to compete in the zone. Hopefully, some of the issues will be helped by being another year removed from surgery.
2025 Outlook: Given the Phillies current rotation situation, Johnson won’t be in the competition mix in Spring Training barring an injury. He is 26 and nearing the end of his option years, so while he will definitely start the year in a rotation (probably AAA), there will need to be a conversation about a move to the bullpen at some point.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: N/A
16. Bryan Rincon, SS
Age: 21 (2/8/04)
Acquired: Drafted in the 14th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’11” 185lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| JS (A+) | 33 | 140 | 2 | 8 | 16.4% | 31.4% | .202 | .336 | .333 |
| Glendale (AFL) | 19 | 73 | 0 | 8 | 12.3% | 20.5% | .188 | .288 | .250 |
| Total | 54 | 221 | 2 | 16 | 14.9% | 27.6% | .194 | .317 | .297 |
Role: Glove First Bottom of the Lineup Shortstop
Risk: High – Rincon barely played in 2024 due to a leg injury, and he once again struggled to make impactful contact. His glove projects to be good, but not good enough to be a zero at the plate. There is a fairly narrow path between sticking at the bottom of the lineup and being more of a bench player.
Summary: Rincon had a rough April where he was too passive at the plate, before having a solid 11 game stretch of May before he suffered a hamstring injury. He never really got back to where he was between the end of the season and a trip to the Arizona Fall League. The season didn’t really change the outlook on Rincon, but his struggles were concerning when he was on the field. He has the makings of a solid approach and has run good contact rates, but he can be prone to not hunting pitches to do damage on. He also lacks impact in his swing, and he really needs to maximize the trajectory of his contact in the air to get to home run power. If he puts it together, he probably is a 10 home run bat that doesn’t make up for the lack of power with a large amount of doubles, but is enough of a threat that he can maintain a decent walk rate. The combination will likely never be more than average at the plate, and likely below, which is why his defensive projection is important. He is a solid shortstop, and has a chance to be a plus defender in the long run thanks to good actions and arm. He hasn’t played positions other than short yet, but if he isn’t a regular it will be important that he has positional versatility.
2025 Outlook: Rincon will return to Jersey Shore looking for a full healthy season. With Caba traded, he should get the everyday reps at shortstop.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 9