The Phillies have made two major league signings this offseason. The first was bringing back Aaron Nola, the second was signing Kolby Allard to go to AAA as starting pitching depth. This plan and lack of action has caused Phillies fans to do something between go insane with boredom and totally forget who is still on the roster of a team that has made the NLCS the last two years. I was curious at how this matched my expectations for the offseason, so I went back to my plan for them this offseason, and the Phillies have mostly stuck to it. I still think they need to add another bat, because I trust Jake Cave and Cristian Pache not at all, and I don’t want to head into the season with Johan Rojas and not a backup plan. What I more want to talk about is the bullpen.
Currently the Phillies have 5 locks in the bullpen: Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, and Matt Strahm. There is definitely some shakiness with Dominguez and Soto, but both are MLB arms and Dominguez has been lights out at various points in the last two seasons. The Phillies want Orion Kerkering to make the team. He is clearly one of their 8 most talented relievers, and given his stuff he probably doesn’t have anything to work on in AAA unless his fastball command collapses. That is 6 guys of 8.
There is then Dylan Covey. Dylan Covey is out of options, but also is the long man and was sort of competent at it. The Phillies weirdly like him and have made changes to his arsenal that have made positive changes. He also isn’t very good. That said, he is the 8th pitcher in the bullpen and his job is to mop up and be the emergency arm. His usage reflected that in 2023. From June 20 to the end of the year he pitched in 2 games with a leverage index greater than 1 (1 is average), and only once more in that stretch was the leverage greater than .30. Those two appearances in higher leverage was August 2 in which he pitches in the 11th after Soto and Kimbrel each blew saves, and September 28 which was the day after the Phillies clinched and they rested a bunch of guys. So even if it is not Dylan Covey if you want to have a long man in your bullpen it is going to be someone who rarely pitches and can go multiple innings. There are probably upgrades, but they aren’t anyone that is going to make anyone excited.
So that leaves us with bullpen spot number 7, currently occupied by the out of options Connor Brogdon and Andrew Bellatti, and the host of 40 man and NRI arms. There are a couple of factors that go into that spot.
Cost/Impact
There is a vocal set of the fanbase that would like for the Phillies to acquire a legitimate closer. The acquisition cost for that closer is likely to be substantial, and on the light side is probably requiring one of the Phillies top 3 hitting prospects (Crawford, Miller, and Caba) as a starting point. The Phillies have a deep enough bullpen that the acquired pitcher is not slotting into a blank spot, they are replacing innings from your 5th or 6th best arm that is now in that 7th spot of low leverage. That means the acquisition equation is Closer minus Gregory Soto or Seranthony Dominguez greater value than the cost given up. Right now that answer is going to always be no. Especially since Jose Alvarado if he was used like a traditional closer would be a top 5-10 closer in the game, and Jeff Hoffman pitched at that level as well last year.
Options
If you don’t go the big name side the attractive thing is to get a known veteran for that 7th spot. The problem is that during the season the team will want to cycle through some arms, whether due to fatigue, minor injuries, ineffectiveness, or usage patterns (double header, multiple days of a starter leaving early). Right now the only two pitchers in the bullpen that can be optioned are Soto and Kerkering, which unless they are the problem, it isn’t a choice you want to make, especially since an optioned player must spend 10 days in the minors. You could DFA Dylan Covey or just run no long man, but that comes with other problems if you need length. Ideally the 7th best spot in a bullpen should have flexibility, and even if that means it is Connor Brogdon until he actually has to be DFA’d that is at least some amount of flexibility that having signed a Hector Neris type would not have given.
Lack of Opportunity
Let’s say you just want depth, trying to find the next Jeff Hoffman. The Phillies can sell their developmental success, but they can’t really sell much opportunity unless injuries start to occur. The Phillies won’t be trading anyone out, and they are going to prioritize pitchers with team control over a new guy. So while the dev may be worse elsewhere, if you are trying to find your way back to the majors, the Phillies aren’t the best option.
So that leaves this stuck position. I personally would find it great if they targeted more than Michael Mercado as arms they liked who they thought they could improve (there is also rumors they targeted some guys like Jordan Hicks who they did like, they just weren’t going to give them quite the roles they were looking for). The slow offseason also has seen much fewer waiver claims and minor trades occur. I think the Phillies will be on that side as we move into Spring Training and other teams have to reconcile their roster and option decisions. Largely the Phillies depth is a good problem to have. They have mostly the same pitchers that were one of the most dominant bullpens in the regular season, which means there really is not much room for upgrades.