Original Post
The Phillies system is not a good system. Trades, bad drafting, poor international classes, mediocre at best development, and an entire year missing due to a pandemic has set it back. There are still a lot of prospects to be excited about, and the missed year means there are some breakouts in here we just didn’t get to experience yet. It is a system on the rise, because it is deep with players, particularly pitchers, with major league upside. What it lacks is current impact and upper minors depth that isn’t just a fringe mlb starter.
In previous years I have done at least 5 separate posts of in depth writeups, but I would be lying if I said I had anywhere close to enough new observations and thoughts to write that much. There just wasn’t that much that changed last year, at least not that anyone is talking about or you can write down as real. That also made actual ordinal rankings a lot more difficult, because I had no confidence in those margins. I like Johan Rojas more than I like Luis Garcia, but I feel very little confidence in that fact and can’t really back it up with hard evidence. This year I have opted for a more narrative form. Gone are individual capsules, in are larger paragraphs about groups of prospects. The players all still have a number next to their names, but they are now grouped into tiers. You can safely assume that everyone in a tier is valued similarly. I might have a real preference between first and last, but the individual differences as you go down are miniscule. The tiers may not have a huge gap between them, but enough of one that it made for hard cut offs. I also have not tied these tiers to OFP because if I am not confident enough to truly put out an ordinal ranking, I am not going to throw a set number in front of a guy. So this is less of a top 59 ranking and more of a system snapshot to prep you for the year.
Tier 1: 1A / 1B
1. Spencer Howard, RHP, Age: 24
2. Mick Abel, RHP, Age: 19
The Phillies system is undisputedly led by a pair of right handed pitchers at opposite ends of the spectrum. One is on the cusp of the major leagues, and the other has yet to throw a professional pitch and did not even pitch in his senior season.
Howard flopped a bit in his major league debut. We did not see the pitcher who was touching 99 the season before with a plus changeup and slider. There are a lot of reasons to believe that Spencer Howard can still show that kind of raw stuff, but when we are talking about top top prospects, it is a knock against Howard that he hasn’t actually sustained high level stuff for a full season. At his best, Howard has #2 starter upside, as he will show at least 3 plus pitches and an overall 4 pitch mix backed by solid command.
Abel was the top high school pitcher in the draft, and if he had pitched his senior season of high school there is a chance he wouldn’t have been available at the Phillies pick. He has sat mostly mid 90s, but he was up to at least 99 in bullpens. His slider is a swing and miss plus pitch and he has a solid feel for a changeup. He is exactly how you draw up a top pitching prospect and there is a real chance the Phillies got a steal at their pick. There is still a lot of risk with Abel, but the arrow is pointed way up.
I have gone back and forth on these rankings many times in the process, with Howard’s good showing in his spring training appearances pushing him up above Abel for right now. When we finally get reports on Abel in competitive games, this could switch again, or Howard could have graduated. Either way they are both high upside righties I like a lot.
Tier 2: Pedigree But Warts
3. Francisco Morales, RHP, Age: 21
4. Bryson Stott, SS, Age: 23
Francisco Morales and Bryson Stott are very different prospects. Morales is a former big bonus international signing, and Stott is a first round pick and college performer. Morales’ profile starts with at least two at least plus tools in his fastball and slider, but some below average attributes (namely changeup and command). Stott might have no plus tools, but also nothing below average. Both might end up at a position below their ceiling, with Morales as a fire breathing reliever and Stott playing another position like second base.
Between the two, Morales’ slider is a standout tool. It is a pitch he has an incredible feel for the manipulation of it, and it gives him the chance to be special. His changeup is still a work in progress (it is a firm upper 80s pitch) and at this point it is fair to wonder if it will ever come around. If he can stick in a rotation, Morales could be a mid rotation starter.
Stott’s throwing motion gives many pause about his ability to play shortstop. If he does have to move off the position, second base is the most logical landing and the Phillies have already started getting him and Luis Garcia reps at second and short to have both be ready for whichever opportunity comes for them.
Tier 3: The Young Hitters
5. Rafael Marchan, C, Age: 22
6. Johan Rojas, OF, Age: 20
7. Luis Garcia, SS. Age: 20
8. Simon Muzziotti, OF, Age: 22
For years the Phillies were churning out breakout international pitchers, but outside of Morales the bulk of their top international players are on the hitting side of things. Marchan has snuck under the radar thanks to some bad seasons and being the 6 figure signing next Jhailyn Ortiz’s $4M+ bonus. He doesn’t have star level tools, but he wasn’t embarrassed in the majors at 21 last year either. He is an athletic switch hitting catcher with good contact skills, poor, but improving power, and a decent idea of what he is doing at the plate. Behind the plate he is a good defender with a plus arm, and most of the defensive deficiencies that are improvable with age and experience. He profiles as an everyday catcher in the long term, but that might also be 3-4 years off (when he would be a wizened and old 25-26), and so he sort of fits with the Realmuto contract timeline, but also might be one of the Phillies most available trade chips.
Johan Rojas is the nobody of the bunch. A 5 figure international signing brought in for DSL depth, he certainly looks the part of the top prospect now. Rojas is athletic with a plus arm, plus to plus plus speed, plenty of raw bat speed, and a body that both has present strength and plenty of projection. On defense, Rojas profiles as a plus defensive center fielder, and would be near elite in a corner. At the plate, his approach is completely raw and he is still a hacker with little approach. He also has not yet played above short season ball, and it said a lot about how the Phillies view him that he was part of their spring training group. He has the raw tools to be a plus or better hitter with plus power, it is just going to take a long time. He is probably the most exciting and highest upside hitting prospect in the org.
Luis Garcia was one of the Phillies’ biggest bonus signings, topping their 2017 signing class. He hit through the GCL before stumbling in Lakewood at age 18. Over the year off he got much stronger, and while you could see signs of talent, he was overmatched in Major League spring training. Long term he isn’t going to be in the middle of the lineup, but there is enough hit tool potential to be at the top of a lineup with moderate power. The big selling point is the defense, because after some yips in the GCL, Garcia has proven to be a plus defensive shortstop who is an absolute menace when moved to second base to allow another shortstop prospect to play their natural position. He likely returns to A-ball in 2021, and with a good year could be an easy top 5 prospect in the system and possibly top 100 overall.
Simon Muzziotti in many ways is the center field version of Marchan. He is a big bonus signing, overshadowed by having his first contract with the Red Sox voided due the Sox violating international signing rules. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but has very good bat to ball skills that can get him into trouble occasionally as he expands the zone. He is a plus defensive center fielder with a strong arm and plus speed. The problem with Muzziotti is that the power is poor and the approach is aggressive, so it will be hard for him to really have a large offensive impact, and he has a slight frame with not a lot of places to put more muscle. His defense should be good enough to give him the ceiling of an everyday regular, just one that probably hits 7th or 8th in a lineup.
Tier 4: Hodgepodge of Talent
9. Mickey Moniak, OF, Age: 22
10. Erik Miller, LHP, Age: 23
11. Nick Maton, SS, Age: 24
12. Casey Martin, SS, Age: 22
13. Yhoswar Garcia, OF, Age: 19
14. Bailey Falter, LHP, Age: 23
15. Adonis Medina, RHP, Age: 24
16. Kendall Simmons, SS, Age: 20
17. Jamari Baylor, SS, Age: 20
18. Connor Brogdon, RHP, Age: 26
19. JoJo Romero, LHP, Age: 24
20. Damon Jones, LHP, Age: 26
21. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Age: 21
This grouping really felt like it got shoved together between the group below it full of risk and the one above it that has enough upside and floor to keep them a step ahead. Erik Miller and Bailey Falter both saw velocity increases last year. Miller is back to near his college velocity in the 93-95 range touching 97, and Falter is sitting 93-95 in short bursts. Falter is the more polished pitcher, and while he held 91-93 in his first spring training game, it is different than holding it over a full season. While he has good pitch and delivery attributes, none of his secondary pitches really push his upside too high. Miller’s breaking balls are slightly better, and while his changeup isn’t at Falter’s level, the extra velocity means his fallback upside in the bullpen is much higher. Adonis Medina’s star has faded, but at 90-94 with a 4 pitch mix there is still room for him to carve out a back of the rotation future, and maybe a move to the bullpen could see the slider sharpen and the fastball have more 95s and 96s.
Nick Maton and Mickey Moniak are both lacking the combination of ceiling and floor that makes them easily projectable as everyday regulars. Both should stay up the middle, but neither are good enough defensively at their primary position (shortstop and center field respectively) to have their gloves carry them. Maton can destroy fastballs, but is vulnerable to breaking balls. He showed this spring that he can really drive the ball to the gaps and sometimes out of the park, but his contact abilities just hold everything a little bit back. Moniak has more power than Maton, thanks to some serious growth in the last few offseasons. His hit tool is not the promised plus plus and is going to take some growth to get to average. It isn’t the bat to ball skills that are lacking, but his approach can be aggressive and poor at times and it puts him in a lot of bad hitting positions. Ultimately he is going to need to continue to make strides there to have a chance of being a regular. Both Maton and Moniak do enough well and have positional versatility, which puts their floors at high end bench bats who could get 300 PAs a year for a contending team.
Casey Martin has as much upside as anyone on this list, but his hit tool has been a wreck vs higher competition. For now it feels like a hedge that he can at least hit enough for his power, plus plus speed, and what should be defensive flexibility to give him some sort of utility floor. He might not hit his way out of A-ball, or he could put it together and he is a top 100 prospect in a year.
Yhoswar Garcia is probably the biggest enigma in the system. He had to wait a year to sign and never made it stateside for Instructs to travel restrictions. He was a top international signee for a reason and should be a plus defensive center fielder with enough offensive upside to be an impact player. Right now there is so little to go on that making a bet in any direction is probably foolish.
Jamari Baylor and Kendall Simmons are both shortstops for now, but both are almost certainly moving off the position, with Baylor likely heading for second or center and Simmons to second, third, or an outfield corner. Baylor is a hit tool first guy who derives power from bat speed and hard contact. Simmons has bat speed and a hard swing, but makes a lot less contact and some of the hardest contact in the system when he does connect. Both need a lot of work and development at bats and come with enormous risk. They also both have everyday upside and possibly more than that.
Connor Brogdon and JoJo Romero are prospects mostly in name only as both carved out roles in the major league bullpen. Brogdon was sitting high 90s to end the 2020 season, but is now back more in the 93-96 range. His changeup is the real weapon, a plus pitch with great deception and fade. The development of a cutter gives him a different angle. Right now he is a major league caliber late inning reliever who could be a closer if he can get back to the upper velocity range. Romero has really blossomed in the bullpen sitting 93-97 with his fastball and a much improved slider. His changeup has taken a bit more of a back seat, but it is a fine third pitch for a reliever. He has been a bit wild, but there is late inning stuff that is pretty much major league ready.
Damon Jones has enough track record and stuff to not completely slide out of this group, even though the recent results have been spotty. He is a fastball, slider, curveball pitcher with a non-existent changeup. His velocity has been inconsistent in the rotation ranging from 90-96, but there is a bit more than that in a relief role. His control is poor and there is very little command in terms of actually spotting pitches. His career is kind of at a crossroads where the Phillies either need to really just give him time to work it out as a starter or just put him in the bullpen and let it rip.
Logan O’Hoppe kind of sneaks into this group thanks to lucking into a gig at the alternate site. He doesn’t have the defensive polish of Marchan, but he has intangibles that pitchers and coaches rave about behind the plate. There is some swing and miss to his game at the plate, but he did make some strides at the alternate site. He has decent home run power to his pull side, but he has not shown that he can use it to all fields yet. He has an everyday catcher upside and thanks to his alt site work is a lot closer to that than most kids with no time above short season ball. There is still a lot of development ahead, but he is young and can stick behind the plate which gives him plenty of time to work through his problems.
Tier 5: Future Dreaming
22. Andrick Nava, C, Age: 19
23. Ethan Lindow, LHP, Age: 22
24. Eduar Segovia, RHP, Age: 20
25. Starlyn Castillo, RHP, Age: 19
26.Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Age: 22
27. Gunner Mayer, RHP, Age: 20
28. Carlos De La Cruz, OF, Age: 21
29. Dominic Pipkin, RHP, Age: 21
30. Rickardo Perez, C, Age: 17
31. Cristopher Sanchez, LHP, Age: 24
32. James McArthur, RHP, Age: 24
33. Victor Santos, RHP, Age: 20
34. Rodolfo Duran, C, Age: 23
35. Yemal Flores, OF, Age: 17
36. Jonathan Guzman, SS, Age: 21
37. Ramon Rosso, RHP, Age: 24
38. Kyle Dohy, LHP, Age: 24
A large part of the missing 2020 season is that there is a large group of Phillies prospects that could be something, but we at most have some innings or at bats from Instructional League to go on. The group is varied in acquisition too, with Jhailyn Ortiz, Rickardo Perez, Andrick Nava, Starlyn Castillo, and Yemal Flores all representing large international outlays and Carlos De La Cruz (NDFA), Eduar Segovia (Int FA), and Ramos Rosso (FA) representing very small outlays across a variety of places. The youth is very present here with 17 year olds Perez and Flores representing the Phillies 2020-2021 international signing class. Perez is a lefty swinging catcher with good feel to hit and solid power. He has the ability to stick behind the plate, but right now doesn’t look to be elite there. Flores is a right handed corner outfielder with big power and a big arm, and a lot of swing and miss. He isn’t quite the same as previous right handed power corner outfield signees like Jose Pujols or Jhailyn Ortiz, but that mention probably just brought back bad memories. Nava has the most offensive upside of the Phillies young catchers with an advanced hit tool (he hit .314 in the GCL at age 17), but he is not a lock to stay behind the plate and doesn’t have a ton of power. Eduar Segovia is the first breakout Latin American pitcher the Phillies have had in a while. He is a short Venezuelan righty who reportedly was up to 97 in Instructs and has solid control, a good breaking ball, and feel for a changeup. Starlyn Castillo is the bigger money version of Segovia. Castillo was up to 97 at age 15 but has been less than that as a pro, but his slider is better than Segovia’s and his command a little worse. Gunner Mayer is only 20 despite being a JuCo pick in the 2019 draft. He is a big (6’6”) projectable starting pitcher that had barely pitched when the Phillies took him and only logged 8.1 GCL innings in his draft year. He already has solid velocity, but he is making improvements with very little pitching and might be on the verge of a breakout.
Not quite the complex level of player, Carlos De La Cruz might be that raw. A 6’8” twig of an outfielder, De La Cruz might already have plus plus raw power and is athletic enough that he might be able to play some center field as he will flash plus speed. He really needed the year of development, but was in New York when the pandemic accelerated and did all of his dev away from the Phillies this year. Dominic Pipkin was a teammate of De La Cruz with the BlueClaws in 2019. Like Kendall Simmons, Pipkin’s draft round (9) doesn’t reflect his talent as he got a 3rd round bonus. He is a big right handed pitcher with big arm strength with a fastball up to 98. His control has been poor and his secondary pitches need work, but there is a base to work with to check back on in a couple of years. Jhailyn Ortiz has been around for a long time, but he is only 22 and his power is still special. His hit tool continues to be suspect, but he has turned himself into a pretty decent defensive right fielder.
Not everyone here is a young projectable prospect with big upside. Ethan Lindow is similar in many ways to Bailey Falter a year ago; a left handed pitcher with good size, good control, and solid secondaries, but a fastball that has a lot of 80s and low 90s. If Lindow can add velocity he could see his stock jump similar to Falter. Cristopher Sanchez does not have a lot of upper minors experience for a player on the fringes of a 40 man roster, but he is a big lefty who has touched up to 98 and has multiple usable secondary pitches. He is in many ways similar to Damon Jones in that the control and inconsistencies mean that he is probably a bullpen arm long term. That makes him similar to Ramon Rosso who might be a starter now, but even with improved fastball velocity is probably 2-3 mph down in a starter’s role and still lacks the control and good changeup/splitter to be a starter. Kyle Dohy is another 3 pitch reliever who might have the best stuff of the group, but really struggles to throw near the strike zone.
Victor Santos is a stout righty with poor velocity, a good split change, and a lot of idea what he is doing. James McArthur was one of the breakouts of fall instructs with a fastball sitting more in the mid 90s with a pair of good breaking balls. McArthur was a trendy breakout when drafted in 2018 due to his size, but he has only shown the increased stuff in short bursts and without a good changeup, the 24 year old might be more of a reliever going forward.
Rodolfo Duran is a near MLB ready backup catcher with good power to the pull side, good defensive tools, and a poor approach at the plate that undoes some of the offensive upside. Jonathan Guzman is a light hitting, plus defensive shortstop who has been around for a long time and is still only 21.
Tier 6: Might be Something Eventually
39. Abrahan Gutierrez, C, Age: 21
40. Ben Brown, RHP, Age: 21
41. Kyle Glogoski, RHP, Age: 22
42. Juan Aparicio, C, Age: 20
43. D.J. Jefferson, RHP, Age: 20
44. Billy Sullivan, RHP, Age: 21
45. Marcus Lee Sang, OF, Age: 20
46. Baron Radcliff, OF, Age: 22
47. Andrew Schultz, RHP, Age: 23
48. Brett Schulze, RHP, Age: 23
49. Jordi Martinez, LHP, Age: 20
50. Noah Skirrow, RHP, Age: 22
51. Zach Warren, LHP, Age: 24
52. Jake McKenna, LHP, Age: 18
53. Manuel Silva, LHP, Age: 22
54. Luke Williams, IF/OF, Age: 24
55. Mauricio Llovera, RHP, Age: 24
56. Colton Eastman, RHP, Age: 24
57. Nicoly Pina, RHP, Age: 21
58. Darick Hall, 1B, Age: 25
59. Rixon Wingrove, 1B, Age: 20
A complete hodgepodge of guys with a lot of pitchers, which is not by accident as the Phillies have not only been good in bringing in a lot of low acquisition cost arms, but also developing them. D.J. Jefferson and Jake McKenna are non-drafted free agent high school arms (Jefferson – 2019 and McKenna 2020). Both have projectable frames and fastballs that are now in the low 90s touching up a bit higher. There is a lot of work still needed in secondary pitches and control, but they are the type of raw clay you want to see an organization bring in. Jordi Martinez is a bit more of the international version of that and maybe he should be up closer to Eduar Segovia and Starlyn Castillo, but there is just very little track record of success over any amount of meaningful innings. Ben Brown and Kyle Glogoski are the more advanced version of this type of arm, Brown is just back from Tommy John surgery and a big bodied right hander who has had more success than stuff, but has had that sort of slow incremental growth that could get him into being a back of the rotation starter. Glogoski didn’t pitch last year due to pandemic reasons, but is a low 90s control oriented righty with solid, but not plus secondary pitches. He dominated A-ball and will need to prove his success against upper minors hitters. Manuel Silva is more of a slow climbing international arm who fits the same sort of mold. He is a skinny lefty with average fastball velocity, a slider and changeup and ok control. There might be something if he takes another step forward, but that small shuffle has also been his growth path for years now.
On the NDFA side there are the top two arms the Phillies brought in from the college side this year. Billy Sullivan did not sign with the Phillies in 2017 and dominated as a freshman before Tommy John sidelined him. He is probably fully a reliever now, but he was up in the high 90s before the injury and was touching 98 in Fall Instructs. He has a solid slider and could move quickly if fully healthy. Noah Skirrow is more of your normal mid day 2 college starter pitcher with a low 90s fastball up to 95 with a good frame and two breaking balls. He had a velocity drop this past year and profiles either in the back of a rotation or a bullpen role. The Phillies spent a 7th round pick on the already converted version of that type pitcher in 2019 in Brett Schulz who was good in his pro debut, but with no reports on him this year he sits stagnant in the rankings, caught between starting and relieving.
This part of the list is also home to some long in the tooth fringe major league relievers in Zach Warren and Mauricio Llovera. Llovera continues to hang on to a 40 man spot, but his velocity has been way down from the high 90s it peaked at, and while his split change is a good pitch, his slider has not developed enough to make him a starter. He will need to re-find some velocity or get left behind. Zach Warren also has been at the lower end of his velocity range (92-94 and less 95s) and while his curveball is good, his control continues to be a large obstacle to overcome.
Luke Williams is always kind of lost in the middle as a high school shortstop who can play everywhere, has some power, has good speed, and has good baseball instincts. He just doesn’t hit enough to really be a bench contributor for his bat, and while he can play shortstop you don’t want him to be the primary backup there. He is the type of player who turns into a late bloomer, but there are more guys like Luke Williams than there are that put it all together.
Even the catchers down here come with large warts. Gutierrez has a good feel for the position and scouts always seem to like him more than his stats, but he has been physically mature since the Braves originally signed him and his athleticism is not great. He should stick at the position and could be a backup catcher long term. Juan Aparicio has a good bat and feel to hit, and there is some power. His approach can get over aggressive and he is not a lock to stay at the position. The lost year also shortened the gap between him and Nava when it comes to at bats, and the emergence of O’Hoppe kind of leaves him and Gutierrez a bit further down the pecking order.
Andrew Schultz and Nicoly Pina have two of the more electric arms in the system. Both pure relievers, Schultz will routinely sit in the upper 90s, touching triple digits. Pina was more mid 90s in the GCL, but had back spin on his fastball that made it jump on hitters. Both are out with arm injuries I believe to be Tommy John, and so will not be back until midseason at the earliest.
The Phillies do have some corner bats in Marcus Lee Sang, an overslot high school signing in 2019, and 2020 5th round pick Baron Radcliffe. Lee Sang is an athletic prototype right fielder who mashed in high school but wasn’t a showcase guy, so the competition level wasn’t great. He probably will take some time. Radcliffe is all power and not a lot of hit, but the exit velocity numbers are huge, and if he could just make a little more contact he could be exciting.
Speaking of exit velocities it feels apt to end on the only two first basemen on this list. Rixon Wingrove is a big bodied Australian with plus power and a better swing than he had entering pro-ball. He is not a selective hitter, and the hit tool is just kind of ok. Darick Hall posts some of the highest exit velocities in the system, and his power was on display in Spring Training. He has made himself into a slightly better hitter, but he has a lot of swing and miss that stops him from fully tapping into his raw power. He stuttered in Reading for two years, and won’t even look like a AAAA player at times. The power is real enough that he needs to at least be on the fringes of thought even if he isn’t knocking down the door for a major league opportunity.