Phillies select Justin Crawford in the 1st Round of the 2022 Draft

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With their first pick and only pick of Day 1 of the draft the Phillies selected high school outfielder Justin Crawford.

Crawford is the son of Carl Crawford and obvious has many similar characteristics. He is an elite level runner and great defender in center field. All the reports have him with good hit tool potential. The swing is apparently a bit slappy and the swing and stance could use some cleaning up, but he has good bat speed and feel for contact. He is also one of the best athletes in the class. the big question is the power, because there is not really much there now. He has the frame to add strength and apparently he will flash it in batting practice.

If you want to be negative, there is a litany of athletic Phillies center field prospects who could go get it in center field, who had questions about their ability to be impactful at the plate (Tocci, Quinn, Muzziotti, and now Rojas to name a few). There is a real chance that the Phillies get a guy who can field, but not hit well enough to be a starter for a playoff team. On the other side, he is a premium athlete who has a chance to be special if it all comes together. It is not just the family relation, but there is a lot in his report that reads like some of the worries and concerns for J.P. Crawford back in 2014 (innate feel for contact and approach, + defense up the middle, and some swing/strength related questions about power). While there are concerns about the offensive abilities, he could be an elite level defender, which may not be good enough, but is a stronger base that what Mickey Moniak showed up to camp with in 2016. He in many ways is the hitting version of the pitchers they have recently taken with plenty of upside and risk.

I did not expect Crawford to be there at the Phillies pick, and neither did most mock drafts. While he didn’t fall much, he also wasn’t a reach. In a vacuum it is a good pick. There was a run on college arms early, and the Phillies must have liked Crawford more than the high school arms after Lesko. The Phillies have been not great at developing hitters, and while this isn’t a guy they will need to teach how to make contact, they are going to need to clean some things up with him. He could be an elite level player, and a real steal here, but it is not one that gives you warm fuzzy feelings at night.

The reports:

MLB Pipeline

Anyone who remembers watching his dad play should not be surprised that Crawford is one of the better athletes in this class. He regularly records easily plus run times and that near-elite speed will allow him to be a threat on the bases and cover a ton of ground in the outfield. At the plate, the left-handed hitter has very good bat-to-ball skills, showing the ability to make adjustments. He’s more of a slap hitter now, content to let his legs do the work, but there’s some whip in his swing and he can sit back and drive the ball the other way, with added strength to help him in the power department in the future.

Crawford has the chance to be a plus defender in center field when all is said and done. Teams who believe he’s going to fill out that 6-foot-3 frame and consistently impact the ball will be interested in trying to sign him away from his Louisiana State commitment, perhaps making him just the second Bishop Gorman product to go in the top three rounds (Tyler Whitaker was a third-rounder in 2021) since Gallo was a supplemental first-round pick in 2012.

ESPN

Another first-round pick whose father is a recently retired major leaguer, Crawford (son of Carl) is one of the most electrifying players in this class with tools including 80-grade speed. The big question for Crawford is whether he’ll hit enough to get to his raw power in games, but there are few players in this class with more upside than the Nevada prep who played at the same high school that produced Joey Gallo and Yankees first-round pick Austin Wells.

The Athletic

…He’s at least a 70 runner, with good bat speed, but not much present power or even hard contact yet, although his frame is very projectable and he could get to average power. He sets up with an extremely wide stance, and strides about as far as he can, which may be why he has trouble adjusting to changing speeds. He’s a better defender than Carl was and throws well enough to stay in centerfield. He has above-average regular upside, but may require more time in the minors than the typical first-round high school position player.

Fangraphs

Crawford has among the most extreme variance of players in this class. He played much less than his peers during the summer showcase circuit season and showed a couple of swing changes throughout the 2021 calendar year, making it harder to get a real grip on his swing. Things were more mechanically typical late in 2021 and in ’22, and there’s now increased confidence in Crawford’s bat. He still has an abbreviated, helicopter-style finish similar to D-backs shortstop Geraldo Perdomo’s left-handed swing, and he’ll bend at the waist and throw his bottom hand at the ball to spray contact to all fields, but Crawford is adept at doing this with the fat part of the bat, and he surprises you with how much damage he can do with this style of hitting. He tracks pitches well, he can move the barrel around, he’ll occasionally flash plus rotational explosiveness when he takes a max-effort swing, and his overall athleticism and physical projection make this contact/speed/present gap power package very exciting once you start anticipating that more strength will come. Though he didn’t have quite the same showcase track record, Crawford’s report reads a lot like a more-projectable Corbin Carroll’s at the same stage.

Baseball America

Crawford is an exciting athlete, an explosive runner with elite speed at a premium position. What should separate Crawford from other supreme athletes who have gone high in the draft but have been more raw in terms of baseball skills is that he has shown good bat control and ability to hit in games. It’s not a given that he grows into more power, but there’s already surprising raw power in there for someone with his wiry frame and a chance that could tick up more as he packs on strength. Logan O’Hoppe is a good prospect behind the plate, but Crawford immediately becomes the most exciting position player in the Phillies system.