Griff McGarry

Role: #3 Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – McGarry has never consistently thrown strikes, but it is now two years in a row where he has reached AAA, and that has become an extreme problem for him. He still has impact upside, but he is now entering his 4th pro season and is having to have his delivery reworked.
Summary: When Griff McGarry’s 2022 season ended with him unable to throw strikes in AAA, it was concerning, but not disqualifying. McGarry has always struggled to repeat his delivery, and that has led to poor control and a high walk rate. His stuff has always tantalized enough that even with that deficit, there was a role for him in a bullpen or as an inefficient 5 inning starter. In 2023, he once again started the year late due to an oblique injury. He struggled in May and June to find consistency in Reading, having some dominant appearances next to ones where he walked the world. It looked like in July he was starting to put it together, and he was promoted to AAA after his first start of August. Up to this point, McGarry has largely shown the same arsenal he has before, a fastball that sat more in the 94-97 range, but would get up to 99, a sweepy slider, a harder cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. In his three appearances in AAA, not only did his control evaporate (14 walks in 4.1 innings), but his stuff also did. He was 91-94, getting up to 95 with all of his other pitches seeing similar drops. His delivery was all over the place, and the Phillies shut him down for the season to rework and simplify his delivery. It is a massive worry that he doesn’t even really have a fallback in a bullpen if he just cannot throw the ball over the plate. The reason to hold off on giving up on McGarry for at least another year is the stuff. The breaking balls all show at least plus potential, and while the changeup is inconsistent, it shows usability. It is a starter’s arsenal of pitches, capable of putting up big strikeout rates. It is all topped by the fastball, which has an elite profile. McGarry gets big extension and comes in low and flat giving it a good trajectory, but then on top of that he has good ride on the pitch too, making it an elite bat misser at the top of the zone. He obviously does not have the control or pedigree of these pitchers, but there are real arsenal and fastball similarities to a Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider, and it also does not help that McGarry has a delivery that looks like a deGrom knock-off. All of that doesn’t matter if he doesn’t throw strikes. 

There is a large contingent of the industry that thinks he is a reliever, I tend to see his problems as ones that are going to be fatal flaws regardless of his pitching role, and putting him in a bullpen is only really damage control, not optimization. The Phillies have talked McGarry up as a starting pitcher still, and that feels like the role that makes sense in a 5 inning capacity with a walk rate that isn’t great, a big strikeout rate, and solid run prevention. It is sort of a modern starting pitcher and one that many teams are developing, and given the Phillies emphasis on innings in their other starting pitchers, they can afford an arm in the rotation with high per inning effectiveness, even at a low inning count.
2024 Outlook: The Phillies say that McGarry is still a starter, and as of right now they don’t have enough starting pitchers in AAA, so it is possible they just send him there to sink or swim. Really the biggest thing to watch is whether the changes they made will help his command without sacrificing his high end stuff.

Role: #2 Starter Rate Stats with #3 Starter Total Value
Risk: High – McGarry made large strides with his control after signing, and once again in 2022, though a late season blister issue inflated his numbers. His stuff could get outs in the majors now, but he needs to just get his stuff in the zone and attack hitters with it. He is almost certainly never going to be an efficient pitcher, but if he can be a per inning front line arm in a rotation or bullpen he is going to be an impact contributor.
Summary: McGarry was trending in the right direction when the Phillies took him in the 5th round of the 2021 draft, and he was dominant in his pro-debut, vaulting him well up lists. His 2022 season got off to a slow start, as he had to ramp up in Jersey Shore after a Spring Training oblique injury. It didn’t slow down his stuff or results, but it did put him behind on total innings for the year. It wasn’t long before he was dominating A-ball. He immediately started having some blister issues that affected his ability to throw his slider in certain appearances. With the Phillies in the playoff push in September, they opted to see if McGarry could help out of the bullpen. The combination of blister and role change saw his command fall apart in AAA, and ultimately the Phillies went in other directions.

Andrew Painter may be the best pitching prospect in the system, but McGarry may have the title of the best individual pitches. McGarry is not a tall man, but he gets very good extension on his pitches, particularly his fastball, and this involves him coming in low and flat to the plate. His fastball then comes out with high spin rates and good spin direction at a low angle of attack with great late explosive rise. He also happens to sit 94-98 and will show a 99 and 100. The pitch is devastating at the top of the zone where hitters have no chance of getting under it, and because of the flat angle it plays well, missing bats even in the heart of the zone. He will also throw a 2-seam variety in the same velocity range that is more of a change of pace. In somewhat typical Phillies fashion they elongated the slider to have more of a sweeper shape and then added a new cutter behind it. Both are plus pitches that might play up above that if he commands them better. He has a curveball as well, and it has shown plus in the past but has faded in usage. He has inconsistent use of a changeup, but he will throw some that make you think there is a good one in there as well. All told it is a plus plus fastball, two at least plus offspeed pitches, and two more competitive pitches. It is a formidable arsenal.

The problem for McGarry has been command. He will have innings where he will just pound the zone, and others where he will walk two batters on 4-5 pitches and have to work his way out of trouble. He does do a good job of not letting things spiral, but it does drive up his pitch count. He can struggle to repeat his delivery at times, but his issues look almost as much approach as they do physical. He does not have fine command, but he does seem to spend a lot of time painting the corners rather than just letting his stuff work for him in the strike zone. He also has the tendency to use his offspeed pitches to go fishing for chases a bit too much. His sweeper is going to be a weapon off the plate, but he will need to be in and around the strike zone a lot more and not go chasing, because he also has a tendency to overthrow when he does it.

Without another leap, McGarry is always going to be a bit inefficient, throwing a few too many balls than you would like. The Phillies want to bulk him up enough to really handle a full season workload, but even with that he is probably going to be more of a 5-6 inning arm than a workhorse like Painter or Abel. It is certainly more of the modern version of a starting pitcher, but when combined with the risk that he doesn’t refine his command, it is easy to see why the bullpen role hovers over him. He is only entering his second full pro season so any bullpen talk as a permanent role is wildly premature, but it will hang over him until he proves he can be a major league starter.
2023 Outlook: Andrew Painter seems to have jumped McGarry in terms of major league opportunity, but the Phillies almost certainly want McGarry to be the next arm up. He will go to Lehigh Valley to continue to polish his command and control. If by some miracle it gets to August and the Phillies have had a full and healthy rotation all year, there may be some conversation about getting McGarry in the bullpen just so he isn’t in AAA when the team could use his arm.

Role: #3 Starter or Late Inning Reliever
Risk: High – McGarry has the best raw stuff in the organization and might be an impact reliever right now, based on his fastball and slider. However, his track record of throwing strikes is essentially limited to 24.1 innings of pro-ball where he just was ok at it. He has the collection of pitches to be a starter, but the control bar will be even higher in that role.
Summary: McGarry was a 4 year starter at Virginia, with the shortened 2020 season making him a 4th year junior heading into the draft. He has always missed bats and struggled to throw strikes throughout his college career, amassing a staggering 131 walks in 134 innings to go with 186 strikeouts. He was lights out to end the college season, but still fell to the 5th round of the draft. What McGarry showed in pro-ball was why he was even in consideration for a day 2 pick. He has an argument for the best raw stuff in the org, including the major leagues, and his arsenal reads like it was designed to check every analytics box. His four-seam fastball sits 93 to 96 and topped out at 98 in pro ball, but has been up to 100 in the past. He has great extension on the pitch to go with a very flat angle, and then tops with very high spin (averaged over 2600rpm in Clearwater) causing explosive rising action. If he can throw it for strikes, it is a plus plus pitch that will miss a ton of bats. His slider and curveball can blend together, with the slider projecting as the better of the two as a mid 80s, high spin, sweeping bat misser. He has flashed an above average to plus changeup in the past, but did not throw many in pro-ball. He also has a distinct two-seam fastball in the same velocity range as the four seamer that he turned to fairly frequently. It is really hard to project his command reaching the point where he could be a front end starter, but it is a front end starter’s collection of pitches. If he can just get to average control, he could be a modern mid rotation starter who will give 5-6 pitch inefficient, but highly effective innings. If he can’t get to the mid rotation starter path, it is likely the Phillies will just fast track him in the bullpen, where he should be able to pitch at the end of games, probably in a multi-inning role. His sharp increase in strike throwing in the pros doesn’t quite make his floor major league reliever, but he really is not far off of being something close to right handed Jose Alvarado. McGarry’s electric pitch mix gives him one of the most impactful ceilings in the system, but the control issues are still scary enough they could come back to sabotage him. Either way, he is a huge steal and draft win for the Phillies.
2022 Outlook: McGarry is a 4 year starter in college who did make 3 appearances in hi-A. If he comes out throwing strikes this spring, they could aggressively push him to AA to start, but it is more likely he gets some more Jersey Shore innings under him. He should reach at least AA by the end of the year, and if he shows the same electric stuff this season, it is not unreasonable that he could help the big league club out of the bullpen down the stretch.