Top Prospects
Justin Crawford – The Phillies decided to aggressively push Crawford to AAA after just 40 games in AA. Crawford is a divisive prospect across the industry, but the Phillies clearly think highly of him. It is likely to be a process over results season for Crawford, both in the positive and negative. Is he making improvements to his swing and decisions but his stats are lagging, or is he putting up good surface stats but not improving the underlying process. Setting aside his prospect status, Crawford puts the ball in play, runs fast, and will flash both power and defense. He should hit near the top of the lineup and be the regular center fielder.
Mick Abel – It will be a return trip to AAA for Abel, who will try to find some stability after a rough 2024 season. Abel has been a workhorse in the minor leagues, and has now solidified his arsenal into a 4-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, curveball, and gyro slider. His fastball has been mid 90s this spring, and he will touch high 90s. While it lacks great shape, he can elevate the 4-seam for misses and work down with his sinker. Abel’s command has been rough the last two seasons, with a tendency towards chasing whiffs and not throwing quality strikes in the zone. If he can throw more quality strikes, he still has some mid rotation upside.
Seth Johnson – Johnson came over in the Gregory Soto trade, and made it to AAA, and the majors, late in the season. The Phillies are going to continue with Johnson in the rotation, and he has a starter’s arsenal of a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. He has struggled to miss bats and elicit chases in the upper levels, which has led to elevated walk rates. Johnson will need to find a new gear when it comes command in the zone or pitch shape/usage to stick in a rotation.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. – Rincones’ jump to AAA is less surprising, as he probably would have been in Lehigh Valley without his injury last year. He has plus plus raw power to go with a great approach at the plate, but a below average ability to make contact. He has struggled vs left handed pitching, but has hit righties enough to be a strong side platoon bat. He is a smart base runner, but with below average speed he is a mediocre defender in the outfield corners. He should hit in the middle of the IronPigs lineup and could be one of the leading power hitters on the team.
Other Notable Names
Max Lazar – Lazar is already a major league ready up and down reliever. He is funky with a fastball that will sit mid 90s to go with a cutter and a big curveball. Lazar throws strikes, but struggled to miss bats in the majors. For the IronPigs, his usage might depend on what the MLB team views him as, and that may be the closer, or it could be a multi inning bridge arm.
Alan Rangel – Rangel made 10 appearances for the IronPigs last year, and at 27 years old isn’t a traditional prospect. The Phillies and others liked him enough to force the Phillies to add him to the 40 man roster this offseason. He will start in the rotation, but he may be more of a long man in the majors. He has an interesting arsenal consisting of a fastball that will sit 91-95 with good ride, a good changeup, and a slider and curveball. His arsenal grades out well analytically, but he does look more like a AAAA swing man. He could make a lot of trips up and down the Northeast Extension.
Michael Mercado – After a year in the rotation, Mercado has moved full time to the bullpen. He did not see a tick up in stuff this spring, and his command continued to struggle. On paper, Mercado should be a high leverage reliever with a fastball that sits 95-97 with an improved changeup and cutter, and a power curveball. If he can get his footing in the bullpen, he could pitch in the late innings for the Pigs and earn a call to the majors.
Otto Kemp – Kemp was a breakout prospect in the system last year, rising all the way up to AAA and then playing in the Arizona Fall League. There are some worries about his ability to hit good pitching, but he can hit the ball very hard. He hasn’t maximized that power to home runs, but there is some further breakout potential if he can do that. Defensively, he has played first, second, third, and some outfield, but does not excel at any of them right now. He should get time around the field, and it will be important to filter his results to high level fastballs and breaking balls.
Erick Brito – Brito is on the initial roster, but may not stick around all year. He is a high contact, low power, good glove middle infielder. He profiles as a utility infielder and if the Phillies choose to keep him around it will be very interesting.
Offensive Expectations
The IronPigs lineup is not loaded with AAAA players or AAA veterans like some past years, but that doesn’t mean there are none. Joining the prospects will be Christian Arroyo, likely primary second baseman, who is an accomplished MLB player. Cal Stevenson and Oscar Mercado will make a good defensive outfield when they share it with Crawford and are both good AAA players. Garrett Stubbs was a light hitting MLB catcher, but he might be a good AAA hitter, and will be a good leader on the field. Payton Henry and Rafael Lantigua both are accomplished AAA players from outside the org who should be in bench roles. Rejoining the IronPigs will be; Matt Kroon who can play all over the field and is a solid hitter, Carson Taylor who is a good on base, high contact, low power first baseman, and Rodolfo Castro who missed most of last year to injury and is now playing infield and outfield while no longer switch hitting. There is some upside to the offense if Crawford, Rincones, and Kemp take to the level well, but it is probably not an elite AAA offense. However, the veterans should make this a high floor team offensively, and solid defensively at certain positions.
Pitching Expectations
The IronPigs rotation will be 40 man heavy with Mick Abel, Seth Johnson, and Alan Rangel joined be Kyle Tyler and Nabil Crismatt. Tyler had a 4.18 ERA across 84 AAA innings last year, and while Crismatt’s AAA ERA is poor, he has 114 major league games under his belt. Unless Abel breaks out, it is not the most star studded rotation, but it has a chance to be one of the better AAA units.
Like most AAA bullpens, the IronPigs will have plenty of relievers with AAA and MLB experience. Joining Mercado and Lazar as 40 man relievers is Devin Sweet, who struck out 111 batters in 76 innings with Toledo last year with a low 90s fastball and good changeup. The rest of the bullpen is a mix of different types. There is some velocity with John McMillon and Guillo Zuniga, some funk in Jose Cuas and Koyo Aoyagi, and some players with plenty of AAA experience in Austin Schulfer, Nicholas Padilla, Enmanuel Mejia, and Joel Kuhnel. The only real weakness is that Nick Vespi is the only lefty on the staff. The Pigs won’t have a dominant arm in the late innings, but they should have enough solid pitchers to have a good staff.
Looking Ahead and Overall Thoughts
The IronPigs have a more prospect heavy team than they have in the past with Crawford as a headliner and two more top 10-ish prospects in Rincones and Abel. They are light on star power overall, but they are a surprisingly solid team. I don’t expect them to run away in the standings, but they could put together a winning record and playoff run.
There isn’t a lot of immediate help on the horizon for the Pigs outside of maybe some relief pitching. Daniel Harper got positive reviews this spring and it wouldn’t be surprising if he was the IronPigs closer by mid May. Andrew Bechtold has a big fastball and AAA experience. There are some other big arms in Griff McGarry, Andrew Baker, and Andrew Schultz that could go up if needed. Some of the late in the season moves might depend on how Reading does, but Aidan Miller, Jean Cabrera, and Moises Chace all have a chance to get bumped up in the second half of the season. On the lesser prospect side, Keaton Anthony, Leandro Pineda, and Trent Farquhar could be interesting bats if they put together good seasons in Reading. If there is an injury or call up that forces a move, it is probably Paul McIntosh or Marcus Lee Sang that get the bump up the ladder.
What about Andrew Painter?
That was an oversight, he absolutely will make a stop over in AAA, I don’t expect it to be long, but he will be there at some point.
In the new format the playoffs are rather unattainable and really not that attractive anyway. And that comes from one of the most fervent Triple-A fans out here. So that part is sad. However, as you point out, a winning season and top-half of the standings kind of campaign is not just possible but perhaps likely. it also seems like a pretty fun and relaxed clubhouse (with or without Stubby) so that will make them more fun to watch. I probably put more into the possible arrival of Painter, Chace’, Cabrera and Miller than you do, but of course it depends on how they go at Double-A.