Next Tuesday all teams will need to add any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 draft to their 40 man rosters. The Phillies have largely made moves at the deadline (Brown and O’Hoppe) and during the season (Guthrie and Hall) that have decreased the number of players that are in contention for those spots. There are two obvious adds, another interesting rising prospects, and then just a lot of people to talk about.
Locks
LHP Erik Miller
We can get into Miller more as a prospect at ranking time, but he is a left handed reliever who throws in the mid to upper 90s with good attributes on his fastball, slider, and changeup. The Phillies have almost no left handed relief and at minimum Miller is very interesting for low leverage in 2023 with a chance he is a 7th/8th inning arm. Ignoring prospect status and where he was drafted, he is exactly what they and other teams are looking for.
OF Johan Rojas
Rojas has a bunch of potential tools topped by high end speed and defense in center field. It is still not clear if he will ever hit or if he does hit, how much power he will actually tap into. That said, he has the defense and speed that with the rule changes there are a bunch of teams that might take him just as a bench player. For the Phillies, Brandon Marsh is still a question and it is a no brainer to keep a top 10 prospect in the system around who has a chance to be an everyday center fielder.
Probably
OF/1B Carlos De La Cruz
De La Cruz is fascinating. He is extremely tall (likely over his listed 6’8″), while still not being physically filled out. He has at least plus plus raw power, and can competently stand in center field if needed. It is not a lock that another team will take him because the hit tool is not great right now. He has a lot of swing and miss, and while approach and pitch recognition are improved, they still are lagging. The Phillies could get cute and try and sneak him through, but as one of only a few position players in the org with impact upside (even if it is fleeting), that is probably not a gamble they should take. Adding him would make Jhailyn Ortiz a luxury on the roster they probably cannot afford.
Interesting Relievers other Teams Might Think About
RHP Brett Schulze
Another Tommy John returnee for the Phillies, Schulze has a mid 90s fastball along with a slider and curveball. Unsurprisingly the control has come and gone as he returns to action. Overall his profile is not high enough upside to wait for him to gain polish and not polished enough to be an immediate contributor. Should be part of the Phillies AA depth to open 2023
RHP Andrew Schultz
Schultz missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, but ended up pitching a full healthy season. Schultz’s fastball sits 97-99 (touching 100), and he pairs it with a hard slider in the low 90s. Schultz’s very short arm delivery is almost painful to watch, and he historically has had control problems. He went on a run of throwing strikes in the middle of the season, but in AA his control problems cropped up again. While the velocity numbers jump out, he probably profiles in more lower leverage roles because of the control. Some team could be enamored with him, but it is likely the control issues scare others away for now.
LHP Erubiel Armenta
Armenta is a mostly fastball-changeup reliever who can miss a ton of bats due to a strong changeup, good fastball characteristics, and a funky delivery. He also has massive control issues, with his ability to throw strikes going backwards as he repeated hi-A Jersey Shore. If another team takes him you have to tip your cap because his lack of 2023 bullpen utility for the Phillies makes carrying him likely all downside.
RHP McKinley Moore
The Phillies acquired Moore from the White Sox for Adam Haseley, and he had a mostly solid year for Reading. His fastball sits mid to upper 90s, touching 98-99. He backs that up with a slider and splitter. His control has come and done, but was much improved from June to August (where is season ended early due to injury). There is a productive major league reliever in there, and he might be at risk of being selected by another team. At the same time, he was very hittable at AA and he is definitely of an archetype that other teams have in their systems.
Hernandez was interesting as a starter to open last year, but some of that shine wore off and he has since moved the bullpen. His fastball is 90-96 and he has a starter’s full 4 pitch mix to go along with decent control. He is excelling in the AFL, so maybe someone falls in love, but there are probably equally interesting relievers available who have upper minors experience.
LHP Taylor Lehman
Tommy John returnee and AFL pitcher double whammee here alongside Schulze. Lehman is a lefty with a high spin fastball he will run up to 96. He has a pair of interesting breaking balls as well. He has had some control problems in the AFL as well, and falls into the same sort of area as Schulze where there might be a major league reliever here, but it does not appear to be high leverage or ready right now.
Other Notable Names
RHP Dominic Pipkin
The Phillies made the obvious move to move Pipkin to the bullpen, and then it didn’t work, and then they moved him back. The secondary pitches are great, but they aren’t terrible. He can get his fastball up to 98 as a starter as well. But he is now 23 and he doesn’t really miss bats or consistently throw strikes. The Phillies definitely want another crack at unlocking him, but not one is going that in the majors.
RHP Eduar Segovia
A late 2021 arm injury cost Segovia the entire 2022 season, but he is back throwing. If healthy his fastball and then plus slider would have made him a deep sleeper for someone to select. For now he is just a deep sleeper for the Phillies.
LHP Jordi Martinez
I don’t think anyone takes Jordi Martinez, but he is a lefty who is 90-95 as a starter with a solid pair of secondary pitches. He might be a reliever long term and if you really wanted to dig deep as another team you might think the stuff plays up in a shorter role. There is no reason for the Phillies to protect him as it is more like he would run out of options or 40 man usefulness before contributing. He is a name to keep an eye on as a breakout candidate or someone where a bullpen move could make them potentially very interesting.
2B Scott Kingery
You just have to take on the $8M salary.
Now that the Phillies have protected only Johan Rojas, what is your take- particularly on Miller and De La Cruz- and your feelings about the quality of Phillies minor leaguers that are eligible and not protected vs. those of other team?