Part of making a run to the World Series is that the offseason comes very quickly. No one is complaining, but there is very little time before shifting into offseason mode. I don’t know how many offseason pieces I will end up writing so I won’t number them, but I figured why not actually do some writing. Next on my plans will be an offseason plan and a Rule 5 protection preview, but before we can get to that point we need to build a base. I may have used this terminology on this site before, but I tend to like to start with a shell. Essentially we strip out all of the free agents and then sort of pencil in and bucket the remaining players. I find that it exposes the holes quickly and it puts into clear words what the tradeoffs are in certain upgrades so you aren’t doing each move in a total vacuum. So with that in mind, lets reset the 40 man roster.
The Free Agents
Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Jean Segura, Zach Eflin, Chris Devenski, Corey Knebel
It is sort of nice to go to the World Series and come out of it without some huge glaring Free Agent leaving. Eflin and Segura in particular are good players and Robertson and Syndergaard had their moments, but no one here is setting off alarm bells.
The “Locks”
Hitters: J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryson Stott, Edmundo Sosa, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, Garrett Stubbs, Matt Vierling
Pitchers: Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Aaron Nola, Seranthony Dominguez, Connor Brogdon, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti
These players aren’t guaranteed to be on the opening day roster, they could be traded, but essentially everyone here would need to be replaced by an equal or greater player in order for it to be successful offseason. Additionally, the player occupies a roster spot that will require an outside player to be added to the 40 and 26 man roster to replace them. So even if you want to fight me about Rhys Hoskins, the Hoskins spot would be filled by a player outside the org, so at minimum he is just keeping it warm. Sosa ends up here because he is out of options, and Matt Vierling is occupying the Brandon Marsh caddy spot.
The Key Reserves
Nick Maton, Dalton Guthrie, Bailey Falter, Nick Nelson, Rafael Marchan/Donny Sands (more on this later)
There is no guarantee these 5* will be on the opening day roster, but Falter is at minimum your #6 starter, Maton and Guthrie are injury depth, Nelson is an up and down reliever, and one of Marchan and Sands is your 3rd catcher.
Fate Tied to Injury
Sam Coonrod, Darick Hall
Coonrod had a rotator cuff injury and is arb eligible, if it is really bad it is hard to see them hanging on to him all through the offseason. If if could be back healthy to open the year, then maybe they do. Hall’s fate is actually tied to Harper. There is not really a path to playing time here (no he really is not a Hoskins replacement) unless it as the LH DH while Harper is out. If Harper is going to miss a month plus of time, then carrying Hall is a good hedge. If Harper will be ready for opening day then the roster spot if probably better used.
Prospects
Francisco Morales, Simon Muzziotti
Jhailyn Ortiz is in a different group if you are looking for him. The Phillies will have a glut of center fielders again with Johan Rojas expected to be a 40 man addition, but Marsh is not a sure thing for health and performance, and you really don’t want to overexpose Vierling offensively and defensively. Muzziotti showed some real life between the injuries, and while he still could be trade bait, he isn’t a player you need to move this offseason, and instead he offers some upside while being an important break in case of emergency center fielder. Morales will likely get a chance to make the bullpen to start, but he is a good enough prospect with low enough trade value, that his highest value to the Phillies is becoming a good bullpen arm.
Trade Bait
Jhailyn Ortiz, Rafael Marchan/Donny Sands
The Phillies have actively tried to move Ortiz for a bit now. He isn’t a terrible prospect, he also isn’t a good one. They have a lot of corner outfield types and not the most 40 man spots to ever exist. If you could turn him into an up and down reliever type, it is something you should probably explore. Same thing with the catchers. I prefer Marchan because of defense, but either way 4 catchers on the 40 man roster is not really something you want to make a habit of if you don’t have to.
Not Really Sure
James McArthur, Michael Plassmeyer, Cristopher Sanchez, Hans Crouse
Sanchez should theoretically be in the Key Reserves category as a reliever, but they haven’t done that yet and he hasn’t proved he can do it, and so here he is in limbo. He doesn’t really have trade value, isn’t really a key piece of depth, and also he isn’t a guy you want to just chuck aside. McArthur and Crouse are both starters coming off injury that the Phillies have not yet made clear whether they start or reliever. They both have enough talent to not just chuck aside, unless they are still hurt or bad because they are hurt. It all adds up to probably giving it until spring before putting them in the last group. Plassmeyer is a fine #8 starter and he has shown he can go up and eat some innings. He probably ends up in the churn group at some point, but right now you probably give him more rope.
DFA/Waiver/Non-tender Churn
Yairo Munoz, Taylor Scott, Damon Jones, Mark Appel, Vinny Nittoli, Kent Emanuel
There are some injuries in here (Jones, Appel, and Emanuel), but none are really players you are going to be waiting forever for. Munoz might be here still just because they never ended up needing his roster spot, but Guthrie is just better. Reliever churn is a thing the Phillies will need to do this offseason whether it is waiver claims, trades, or signings. Ultimately they are going to need some roster spots and currently these are the players occupying them right now.
So to Recap…
The MLB roster has 18 locks on 26 spots, 11 hitters and 7 pitchers, and then are 5* players occupying key spots. You have two prospect-y types hanging around giving you 25 of 40 spots pretty well and truly occupied. Then there are 6* players in trade/shoulder shrug limbo, bringing us to 31. So, assuming the injury guys and churn guys go that leaves you 9 roster spots for additions without actually making trades with roster players. We can also draw out the roster shell:
- C Realmuto
- 1B Hoskins
- 2B Stott/FA
- SS Stott/FA
- 3B Bohm
- LF Schwarber
- CF Marsh
- RF Castellanos
- DH Harper
- Bench Sosa/Stubbs/Vierling/IF or OF (probably internal)
- SP Wheeler/Nola/Suarez/SP4/SP5
- RP Dominguez/Alvarado/Bellatti/Brogdon/RP1/RP2/RP3/RP4
You then have Maton, Guthrie, Falter, and Nelson to add to those holes from the 40 man.
Up next, later this week?, how to go about filling those holes.
Hi Matt,
Really enjoy your knowledge on the Phillies, and in particular, the prospects. I was keeping an eye on the AFL and it looked like Johan Rojas had gotten off to a pretty good start. However, he got replaced late in a game and did not play the rest of the way and I have not been able to find out if he got injured and what it was. Hoping you might share some insight.
Thanks,
Paul
I think it was reported as a shoulder injury and then a personal matter.
From what I have heard neither is a concern.