2018 Lakewood BlueClaws Season Preview

The minor league season is almost underway. The rosters are revealed, most of the players have been assigned a place to play. As we head into opening day my previews of the Phillies’ affiliates starts with the lowest level in the Lakewood BlueClaws. This year’s BlueClaws team is less exciting then the previous version, but as always the lowest levels tend to produce the most surprises.

Quick Pitch:

Over the past few years the Lakewood BlueClaws have been loaded with young talent from drafts and international hauls. The 2018 team is slightly different, as the Phillies went college heavy in the 2017 draft and spent most of their 2015 international signing budget on Jhailyn Ortiz. Ortiz is the headliner to this team, which is not lacking in talent, but is also not overflowing with it. The BlueClaws should be interesting this year, but they might not be good.

Top Hitting Prospect: Jhailyn Ortiz

There were a lot of questions when the Phillies signed Ortiz for $4M after he gained weight and slowed down in the spring of that year. Since signing however, Ortiz has done a great job of not only keeping in shape, but getting his body in a great place. The result has been a gigantic teenager with plus plus power, average speed, and a great arm. After a solid first year, Ortiz mashed in the New York-Penn League last season. Ortiz still has normal struggles with offspeed pitches, but his feel for contact has shown major improvement. The improved contact has allowed Ortiz to tap into his power more, and he can hit home runs to all fields. He is still far from the majors, but Ortiz profiles as a middle of the order masher. If Ortiz reaches his offensive ceiling, his position won’t matter, but Ortiz has impressed with his defense. Despite his size, Ortiz is an average runner, and he combines that with a willingness on defense to go all out (he had some highlight level diving plays in Williamsport). He has a plus plus arm, and he is eager to show it off. There are many that worry Ortiz is a first baseman long term because of his body, but for now he has shown that he can keep everything in check. A dominant year in Lakewood could cement Ortiz as one the better prospects in baseball.

Top Pitching Prospect: Spencer Howard

When the Phillies took Howard in the second round, he was viewed as a bit of an overdraft, but that doesn’t mean Howard is not a good talent. Howard has only been a starting pitcher for less than a year, so he is still new to using a full arsenal. His fastball sat in the mid 90s in pro ball, and the pitch shows explosive life. He mixes in a good slider and shows a curveball and changeup. In college, Howard had good control of his pitches, but in pro ball he has struggled to consistently throw strikes. Given how unpolished he is for a college pitcher, Howard has a lot of different potential outcomes. He has enough projection and current velocity to be a mid rotation starter, but his lack of secondary pitches make a back of the rotation or bullpen role also likely. Howard does enter the year as the Lakewood pitcher most likely to earn their way to Clearwater by the middle of the season.

Breakout Potential: Dalton Guthrie
Heading into the 2017 college season, Guthrie was seen as a fringe first round pick. A shoulder injury sapped his arm strength and limited him on defense. Before the injury, Guthrie looked like he should be able to stick at shortstop due to his range. If he can’t handle shortstop, he should be a plus defender at second base. The injury also hindered Guthrie at the plate, and despite a career high in home runs, he had his worst offense year. Guthrie does not have much power, but he has a solid approach and good feel for contact. Given his track record in the SEC, a healthy Guthrie could get through Lakewood quickly and establish himself as a potential everyday regular.

The Roster:

Placement on my Phillies Top 50 prospect rankings indicated in parentheses next to each player.

Lineup:

C Rodolfo Duran
1B Quincy Nieporte
2B Daniel Brito (11)
SS Dalton Guthrie (49)
3B Cole Stobbe
LF Josh Stephen
CF Simon Muzziotti (23)
RF Jhailyn Ortiz (6)

The BlueClaws lineup is once again loaded with young players. Duran is a defense first catcher who will flash offensive upside. If he can hit some, he should make prospect lists next offseason. Nieporte is an org first baseman who should help the offense. Daniel Brito returns to Lakewood after struggling in the second half of last season. Brito still has a ton of upside with a great swing, plus speed, great defense, and average or better power. Brito got overly aggressive as the year went on, and if he gets his approach under control he could rejoin Gamboa in Clearwater before the end of the year. Stobbe had a bad pro debut, where he chased too many breaking balls, but he still has good power and can stick at third base. If he can lay off pitches he could have a good year. Stephen had much of the same problems as Stobbe, but he has less raw power and is limited to left field. Muzziotti has great contact abilities and little strength. He is a great defender in center field but will need to drive the ball more to have impact.

Rotation:

An Update has been made to reflect the opening day rotation.

Spencer Howard (20)
Ramon Rosso
Will Stewart
David Parkinson
Damon Jones
Connor Brogdon

The BlueClaws rotation to open the year is a clear downgrade from the 2017 season, with a lot of questions outside of Spencer Howard. Ramon Rosso rocketed through the system last year after signing his second pro contract (he was previously signed and released by the Dodgers). In his time with the Phillies, Rosso showed a fastball in the low 90s with a low 80s slider and mid 80s changeup. He rarely used his changeup in his starts last year. Rosso is solidly built with a bit more projection, but his age (21) and lack of an advanced 3 pitch mix means that he is probably headed to the bullpen long term. Will Stewart is a projectable left handed pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90s from a funky delivery, and he also throws a curveball and changeup. He gets a large number of ground balls, but is probably a reliever. The Phillies took Parkinson on day 3 of the 2017 draft and gave him day 2 money. He is a 4 pitch lefty with a bunch of average-ish pitches. He profiles as a back end starting pitcher. Brogdon is a huge skinny righty in the low to mid 90s with a curveball. Jones had some control problems last year, but he is a big lefty who can touch up to 96.

Bench:

Nick Maton
Raul Rivas
Gregori Rivero
Malvin Matos
Jake Scheiner
Colby Fitch

In low-A the bench is functionally the DH as well as a constantly rotating force. Maton is a shortstop who will likely see some of second base as well. He is limited in power, but he can make contact and take a walk. He is probably a utility infielder. Raul Rivas is a glove first utility infielder. Gregori Rivero is a glove first catcher, with decent contact abilities, no approach, and poor power. Jake Scheiner was the Phillies 4th round pick in 2017. He has played 2nd and 3rd and has some power, but will need to improve his approach. If he can play second, he has a chance to be a regular, but he might be a utility infielder. Matos is an athletic outfielder with some power and speed and some potential hit tool upside. He can play center field, but might be a corner outfielder long term. Colby Fitch is an offensive first catcher who the Phillies took in the 13th round of the 2017 draft.

Bullpen:

Addison Russ
Kyle Dohy
Zach Warren
Randy Alcantara
Jonathan Hennigan
Luis Ramirez
Luis Carrasco
Julian Garcia

The Lakewood bullpen is usually filled with college arms, and this year is no exception. Russ is a 23 year old college reliever. Brogdon is a huge skinny righty in the low to mid 90s with a curveball. He was dominant in Williamsport last year. Dohy is a lefty reliever with some arm strength who walked 20 batters in 20 games last year. Warren is a big lefty who struggled in college, but has some projection in his frame. Alcantara is a small righty who was great for the Crosscutters last year and pitches in the low to mid 90s. Hennigan is a lefty who struggled in Lakewood last year, but is a low 90s lefty. Jones had some control problems last year, but he is a big lefty who can touch up to 96. Ramirez is a 20 year old small righty who had some control issues with Williamsport. Luis Carrasco has great arm strength with a fastball that sits 93-96 touching 97 with great movement. Carrasco has a changeup and slider, but neither is a great pitch. Carrasco is already 23 and has had a lot of control issues. Julian Garcia had great numbers in his second year starting for Williamsport, but he has a below average fastball and ok secondary pitches.

Potential Upgrades:

Kyle Young (25)
Jonathan Guzman (22)
Jhordany Mezquita (47)

Not everyone made the opening day roster for a variety of reasons. It appears that Kyle Young won’t start with the BlueClaws, but he likely joins them at some point. He is a 6’11-7’0” lefty who pitches in the high 80s with a loopy slider and developing changeup. Young has great extension and surprisingly great control for his size. He still needs to put on weight. Also needing to put on weight is shortstop Jonathan Guzman, who has a great feel for hitting and the defensive tools to stick at shortstop. The only problem is he is too physically small to make any impact on the ball. Mezquita was a mystery when the Phillies drafted him, but the Dominican lefty can get up to 94 with his fastball and features a good curveball. He does need to work on his changeup and has not pitched many innings over the past few years.

Season Expectations:

The BlueClaws lack the impact players of the last few years. Jhailyn Ortiz could carry the offense, and a resurgent Daniel Brito would help in the first half, but the team lacks good high schoolers and also does not have many college performers. The rotation is also low on impact and lacks upside in the pitchers. There is a chance that the college pitchers dominate the low level batters, but there is bound to be a step back after Sanchez, Romero, Medina, and Suarez on the opening day roster last year.