Way Too Early Rule 5 Look Ahead

We are still five months out from the Rule 5 draft, but it is never too early to look ahead to see who may need to get pushed and evaluated just a bit more before we get to the fall of this year.

First Time Eligible:

Jiandido Tromp, Roman Quinn, Hoby MilnerJesen Dygestile-TherrienManaure MartinezRanfi Casimiro, Yacksel Rios, Yoel Mecias, William Cuicas, Mitch Walding, Cameron Perkins

Second Time Eligible:

Art Charles, Edubray Ramos, Brodie Greene, Carlos Alonso, Devin Lohman, Logan Moore, Brock Stassi, Casey Serna, Harold Martinez, Brian Pointer, Colton Murray, Ethan Stewart, Lino Martinez, Luis Morales, Miguel Nunez, Ryan O’Sullivan, Stephen Shackleford, Gabriel Lino

MiLB FA:

Colin Kleven, Edgar Duran, Willians Astudillo, Gustavo Pierre, Harold Guerrero, Tyler Knigge, Steven Inch, Jose Mayorga, Ethan Martin

Locks:

Roman Quinn, Edubray Ramos, Gabriel Lino

A couple of months ago I would have argued that Yoel Mecias was a lock as well, but his performance has really dropped off as his velocity and healthy have just evaporated.  Roman Quinn is a no brainer.  I know the Phillies are high on Edubray Ramos, and they should be, mid 90s fastball, wipeout curveball.  The only question with him is why he isn’t in Reading yet.  Gabriel Lino is likely to get a 40 man spot by the end of the year as at very least the

Interesting:

Yacksel Rios, Miguel Nunez, Brian Pointer, Colton Murray, Colin Kleven, Tyler Knigge, Jesen Therrien, Cameron Perkins

Perkins continues to be very interesting but not a lock.  Power has been lacking from his game for years, he added the power in for a month, but the hit wasn’t there with it and then he got hurt.  A team may take him because they want a RH bench bat right now, but there is not amazing upside to make a team have patience with him over a long season.  Rios, Therrien, and Nunez have plus stuff out of the bullpen (though Rios is starting right now), but neither has the stuff to be an automatic selection by another club because they lack huge impact.  Pointer is probably a 4th outfielder because he can’t really play center field at the major league level, but he lacks the big exciting tools that most teams desire, that being said, if he continues his current pace he will get his shot at the majors.  Colin Kleven has seen his velocity jump this year, but his secondary stuff hasn’t advanced to the point where he is more than a right handed reliever.  That being said he hasn’t gotten his shot in the Phillies org, so there is a chance he just leaves and brings his 96 mph fastball with him.  Murray is a middle reliever having a worst season than last year, so it is unlikely he will get picked now.  We will see how it goes going forward from here, but reports are that Knigge has been 97-99 in recent outings.  Though if that continues, Knigge will bounce back through AAA on his way to the majors.

Who Knows:

Manaure Martinez, Ethan Stewart, Willians Astudillo

Martinez throws hard and has a slider, but can’t find the strike zone.  Stewart has the best slider in the org and has a good fastball, but can’t find the strike zone and now health.  Astudillo can really hit and has a hit of power, but really has no defensive position.  If a team buys any of the tools they will draft the player.  That being said I don’t think that these three are worth a 40 man spot for the Phillies.

Not In Danger:

Ranfi Casimiro, Hoby Milner, Luis Morales, William Cuicas, Jiandido Tromp, 

All five are too far away from the majors to be carryable on a roster and don’t offer the upside to carry all year.  It is not worth writing them off as prospects, but no one is going to chance them in the Rule 5.

Author: Matt Winkelman

Matt Winkelman
Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.

16 comments

  1. FrankV

    No thoughts on if Stassi would be grabbed Mark Canha style?

    • Matt Winkelman

      I don’t think a team grabs him, and I am not worried if they do

  2. Romus

    Astudillo would be the wildcard IMO.
    Hard to cage what option the Phillies will do.
    I tend to agree that he will not be protected.

    • Rei De Bastoni

      I don’t think the Phillies think as highly of Astudillo as we do. If most of us were in charge of the lineups, he would be catching as much as his knees would allow, but he’s usually only thrown back there as an afterthought. I would be shocked if he were protected.

  3. Ed

    Hm, i guess Ethan Martin is not even a bullpen prospect anymore. Disappointed to write that. Also would hate to see the team lose Therien. I think he has major league stuff.

  4. Romus

    Astros lost Delino Deshields last Rule 5 to the Rangers, Phillies choose first or second this next Rule 5, the Astros have a deep farm and will not be able to protect all their prospects…..maybe Dom Santana comes back to the Phillies if the Astros leave him off the 40….probably not however!

    • phillysf

      when I use to comment on Phuturephillies site, I remember I wrote im cool with the player to be named later as long as it is not Domingo Santana , and then it was, and I was not cool with that, still think he is gonna be good

    • Rujasu

      Seeing as Domingo is currently on the Astros’ 25, he’s definitely not going to be off their 40.

  5. Kurdt Kobeyn

    Correia, SOS, Rosin, Williams, Danks shouldn’t be in the 40-man roster after the season. Blanco and Frenchy are expendable since the Phils have younger options – so that’s at least 7 spots in the 40-man roster for new bloods to come in that’s even before potential trades of Hamels, Harang Paps and Revere and potentially some more with the trade/release of Howard, Ruiz and Dom Brown or even Billingsley, Neris, Gomez and Rupp! As a minimum, the Phillies can easily carry 5-7 in their 40-man — agree with Matt that QUINN, RAMOS, LINO (which makes either Rupp or Ruiz expendable) as LOCKS — so PERKINS can be the RH OF/1B from the bench, JDT and/or Nunez as the replacement for Rosin and Neris, Rios or even Mecias as the potential long man from the pen that can be called up from 40 to 25 and Stassi as the LH power bat from the bench. Agreed also that Tromp is still far away but a team might take a chance on Casimiro and Milner.

  6. Jack

    Off topic but does anyone have a scouting report on Mitch Gueller? Ceiling? Floor?

    • Matt Winkelman

      Fastball was 86-88 touching 90 last time out. The slider is an improved pitch and he is pitching off of that. He is still really far off the prospect radar. The velocity appears to just be gone, though last year the coaches thought it might inch back as he gets more comfortable airing it out.

  7. Travis

    What about the flip side? Who, especially those not on the 25 man, is in danger of being outrighted off the 40 man. Joseph, Rosin, etc.

  8. allentown1

    I think Pointer is close to a lock. Increasingly big bat in AA.

    • Romus

      Pointer needs to pick up his bat versus lefties. They seem to give him all kinds of problems.
      But should be a good candidate for the 40.if the Phillies carry 9 OFers on the 40

  9. Kurdt Kobeyn

    If the phils decides to move on from Revere and Dom Brown and think that Stassi will not be drafted in Rule 5, they might consider Pointer as the bench OF/LH pinch hitter. Not a lot of upside. Phils will carry Altherr (R), Dugan (L), Asche (L), Herrera (L) and Quinn (SW) as lock 5 OF + 2 if they keep Brown (L) and Revere (L) . I can see the Phils acquiring via FA or trade 1-2 OF so the LH Pointer bats need to stay hot to be considered in the 40-man roster because I can see Perkins getting in before Pointer. Hopefully, the Phils can acquire a stud OF via trade or FA coz I rather want them to give Pointer or Perkins a chance rather than sign a Jordan Danks type of a player.

    • Romus

      Agree…..I like to see Perkins added to the 40. I think he does have a good hit tool for a 4th/5th. And does play an adequate corner OF position.