Revisiting Minor League Stat Predictions

At the beginning of the year I made a bunch of stats predictions as an exercise in thinking about players, level of competition, park factors, and other things. I was wrong on a lot of things, so might as well revisit it. The original predictions are here.

Batting Average: 
Prediction:
Rhys Hoskins
Actual:
Mark Laird (.355) / Andrew Pullin (.322)

I split this here because Laird only got 217 PAs which is on par with shortseason ball, where as Pullin got 359 PAs or most of a full season. The top among players with 500 PAs was Josh Tobias at .291. I thought Rhys Hoskins would just mash, and he did, but .281 just doesn’t cut it. Mark Laird can really hit, but not do much else. This season was a bit of a breakout for Andrew Pullin even if it just left everyone more confused.

On Base Percentage: 
Prediction:
Rhys Hoskins
Actual:
Mark Laird (.442) / Zach Coppola (.397)

The no power outfielders from the 2015 draft continue to dominate. That said Hoskins at .377 was tops among players with at least 500 PAs, so I feel better about this.

Slugging: 
Prediction:
Rhys Hoskins
Actual: 
Dylan Cozens (.591)

Cozens just mashed his way through the year and was the true winner of the Reading slugging competition. Hoskins finished second at .566.

Home Runs: 
Prediction:
Rhys Hoskins
Actual: 
Dylan Cozens (40)

Cozens won in the end, but Hoskins was second in the minors at 38.

Doubles: 
Prediction:
Cornelius Randolph
Actual: 
Dylan Cozens (38)

Yeah Cozens hit for some power, honorable mention to Scott Kingery who managed a respectable 36.

Triples: 
Prediction:
Roman Quinn
Actual:
Roman Quinn/Nick Williams (6)

Nick Williams didn’t actually have a terrible power year with 52 extra base hits, but Quinn hit the same number of triples in 48 fewer games.

Walks: 
Prediction:
J.P. Crawford
Actual: 
J.P. Crawford (72)

Say what you will about Crawford’s year, the man gets on base even when he is struggling. Rhys Hoskins and his 71 walks made this a race.

Strikeouts: 
Prediction:
Jose Pujols
Actual: 
Dylan Cozens (186)

Pujols had a commanding lead for most of the year, but in August and September Cozens edged him 58 to 34 has Pujols found some patience and Cozens slumped to beat him by 7.

Stolen Bases: 
Prediction:
Roman Quinn
Actual:
Roman Quinn (36)

There was a couple of day period where Scott Kingery had the crown and then Quinn came back and ended up stealing 6 more bases than Scott in 54 fewer games.

Innings: 
Prediction:
Thomas Eshelman
Actual: 
Anthony Vasquez (172.1)

Eshelman ended up 50 innings back thanks to injury, 6 man rotation, and ineffectiveness. Vasquez edged Ben Lively and was a real workhorse for Reading and Lehigh Valley this year.

Wins: 
Prediction:
Ricardo Pinto
Actual: 
Ben Lively (18)

Pinto only won 7 games, instead it was Lively putting up good numbers in front of good offenses all year.

ERA: 
Prediction:
Tyler Gilbert
Actual: 
Sixto Sanchez (0.50)/Jake Thompson (2.50)

Sanchez only pitched 54 innings over 11 starts so I added a full season pitcher in Jake Thompson who was great in AAA. Sanchez’s year was just dominant on all fronts and carried the GCL Phillies right into the finals. Lakewood was not kind to Tyler Gilbert who ended at 3.98 and out of the Lakewood playoff rotation.

Walks: 
Prediction:
Mark Appel
Actual:
Nick Pivetta (51)

The key to the category is to pitch a lot of innings and not have perfect control. Appel got hurt and Pivetta won the category while only having a BB/9 of 3.1.

Strikeouts: 
Prediction:
Tyler Gilbert
Actual: 
Jose Taveras (154)

I like Gilbert, I am sorry. Taveras pitched a decent chunk of innings, but also struck a lot of guys out with deception, control, and an interesting pitch mix.

K/9 (SP): 
Prediction:
Tyler Gilbert
Actual: 
Alberto Tirado (14.2)

I was very wrong. I was sort of right on Tirado (see next category), except for the part where he would stick in a rotation and be dominant for two months.

K/9 (RP): 
Prediction:
Alberto Tirado
Actual:
 Blake Quinn (12.5)

Rare that the RP finishes behind the SP, but Quinn was very good after being drafted in the 9th round by the Phillies. He could move quickly, as could Grant Dyer.

BB/9 (SP): 
Prediction:
Thomas Eshelman
Actual: 
Sixto Sanchez (1.3)/Jose Taveras (1.7)

Sixto Sanchez is very very good. Eshelman was at 2.1/9.

BB/9 (RP): 
Prediction:
Victor Arano
Actual:
 Edward Mujica/Edubray Ramos (0.9)

Mujica didn’t strike many out and did it in AAA not the majors. Edubray Ramos dominated the minors before being summoned to the majors. Victor Arano finished at 2.1/9.

Home Runs: 
Prediction:
Nick Pivetta
Actual: 
Ricardo Pinto (20)

Stay healthy and pitch in Reading, right idea, wrong pitcher. Pivetta was 6th with 12, Tyler Viza gave up 17, 12 of which came while with Reading.

Saves: 
Prediction:
Robert Tasin
Actual: 
Edward Mujica (23)

Tasin started as Lakewood’s closer, was bad and then released. Mujica kept the job until he was released. Miguel Nunez had the most (20) of anyone still in the org.

Author: Matt Winkelman

Matt Winkelman
Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.